Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Strategy: A View from the 1.09
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option. In addition, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
Rookie Selection 1.09
The Pick: George Pickens, WR Georgia
Go back in time two years. It’s the off-season between the 2019 and 2020 football seasons and the most-coveted devy wide receiver is none other than Pickens. Coming off a very impressive freshman season at Georgia in which he led the team in receiving while setting UGA freshman records, Pickens had the look of the clear WR1 in his eventual draft class – that freshman year, Pickens hauled in 49 passes for 727 yards and eight touchdowns. However, that would prove to be Pickens’ best college season. Poor quarterback play and injuries hurt his production over his final two seasons. After a spring ACL tear, the long and lean wideout was limited to just five games in 2021.
With all that in mind, there’s still a lot to like about Pickens, a former five-star recruit. Considered to have the best hands in the class and all-around sick ball skills, Pickens also has one of the earliest breakout ages among the 2022 rookie wide receivers – that has all led to his projection as a likely early-second round pick. Grinding the Mocks currently projects Pickens to be the eighth receiver drafted somewhere around #43 overall.
There are also reasons for concern as well.
At 6’3” and just 195 pounds, Pickens lacks the ideal strength to fend off defensive backs. He needs to improvement on his route running, something that surely could’ve happened if not for the ACL injury. Ultimately, the NFL will tell us what they think of Pickens next week. If he sneaks into the first round, he’ll have a chance to push this already solid rookie ADP even higher. On the other hand, if teams continue to let Pickens slide well into Day Two of the weekend, a case could be made that Pickens should not be a top-12 selection in dynasty rookie drafts.
Trade Value
- 1.09 for Aaron Rodgers
- 1.09/2.09 for Nick Chubb
- 1.09 for 2023 1st round pick
Possible Pivots
Super-Flex Options
Rookie Selection 2.09
The Pick: Justyn Ross, WR Clemson
It’s ironic Ross and Pickens end up in the same draft spot in the first two rounds as they are similar players entering the NFL with the same question – can they stay healthy? Unfortunately for Ross, the concerns about his health status are much more serious. After two very strong seasons at Clemson, Ross missed the entire 2020 season due to a spinal condition that required surgery. It was unclear then if Ross would ever play football again and his doctors reportedly warned him not to take the field. Eventually, Ross was cleared and played for the Tigers last season. The bad news is the quarterback (Trevor Lawrence) who made Ross look so good as a freshman was gone. The entire Clemson offense took a major step back over the past two seasons, not to mention Ross suffered a foot injury that plagued him all season.
Like Pickens, the NFL will tell us what they think of Ross come draft weekend. In Ross’ case though, the floor is not even being drafted. NFL Draft analyst Dane Brugler of The Athletic recently released a seven-round mock draft and projected Ross as a seventh-round pick. Obviously if that were to happen, he would be hard pressed to maintain this second-round rookie draft value.
Trade Value
- 2.09 for 3.03/4.02/4.03
- 2.09/2023 2nd round pick for Calvin Ridley
- 2.09 for 2023 2nd round pick
Possible Pivots
Super-Flex Options
Rookie Selection 3.09
The Pick: Khalil Shakir, WR Boise State
Boise State’s Khalil Shakir has gone under the radar, despite many reasons dynasty players should’ve been aware of him sooner. A former four-star recruit, Shakir opted for Boise over multiple Power-Five offers. After a quiet freshman season, he became a team leader, both on and off the field. Shakir led the team in receiving yards or receptions in each of his final three seasons, giving him an early breakout age.
While lacking ideal size and elite speed, Shakir is said to be uber-competitive and tough, with what coaches have called “elite character” off the field. Based on mock drafts, Shakir is a lock to be selected on Day Two of the Draft, currently ranked 90th overall and WR15, per Grinding the Mocks. Shakir is also an experienced special teams return man and was routinely fed the ball out of the backfield. In the “Summer of Deebo,” NFL teams will place a high value on that versatility.
Trade Value
- 3.09 for Justin Jackson/$50 blind bidding
- 3.09 for 2023 3rd round pick
Possible Pivots
Sam Howell, Tyler Allgeier, Jerome Ford
Super-Flex Options
- Monday Mocks: 2025 Landing Spots - April 14, 2025
- Monday Mocks: 2026 Devy Mock Draft - April 7, 2025
- Monday Mocks: 2025 “What If” Rookie Mock Draft - March 31, 2025
