2022 Dynasty Capsule: Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs finished the regular season with a 12-5 record and a first-place finish in the AFC West. The team made a deep run in the playoffs, winning the Wild Card against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Divisional Round against the Buffalo Bills, but were knocked off by the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship game.
There are still storylines dynasty gamers will be focusing on going into the off-season. Fantasy managers will be monitoring if the Chiefs bring in any offensive weapons for Mahomes. They have a very explosive offense and all it takes for a rookie or a talented veteran to land with this team to impact the fantasy landscape.
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes (ADP = 40.00, QB1)
Courtesy of RotoViz.
Mahomes passed for 4,839 yards and 37 touchdowns this season. He supplied fantasy managers with ten QB1 performances. There was a stint during the middle of the season where fans were worried that the NFL had Mahomes figured out. However, it was just a slump where he and most of the team just wasn’t playing to expectations. His most explosive game of the season came against the Raiders in week ten when he passed for 406 yards and five touchdowns.
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Comparison Tool.
Over the years, we have seen Mahomes’ startup ADP slowly decrease. On average, he is still being selected as the first quarterback off the board in startup drafts. With him inching closer to 30, we should experience dynasty gamers to continuously let his value slowly slip. His play hasn’t regressed, and he’s still an elite-level quarterback. The market likes to sometimes overbake age into long-term player values. There haven’t been any significant signs pointing to Mahomes’ play dropping off anytime soon. Dynasty players should continue to roster him with confidence.
Chad Henne (ADP N/A)
Henne is set to test free agency this off-season. With him being a 36-year-old backup and having continuity with the Chiefs’ organization, there’s a good chance he re-signs with the team. From a fantasy football perspective, Henne doesn’t hold any value unless you are in an ultra-deep superflex league.
Shane Buechele (ADP N/A)
Buechele is an undrafted rookie free agent signed with the team through 2022. He played college football at SMU and Texas. Currently, he projects as a journeyman backup quarterback. There’s a good chance he will be out of the league sooner than later.
RUNNING BACK
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP = 60.50, RB23)
Courtesy of RotoViz.
Injuries derailed Edwards-Helaire’s season. We saw him share the backfield with multiple different running backs throughout the year. In ten games he rushed for 517 yards and four touchdowns while producing two RB1 weeks along with three RB2 weeks. He also averaged 2.42 yards after contact per attempt while also forcing 18 missed tackles.
Courtesy of DLF’s Dynasty ADP Comparison Tool.
We are currently seeing a massive shift in Edwards-Helaire’s dynasty value. The expectations were set very high and so far, he hasn’t been able to live up to them. He wasn’t considered a can’t-miss prospect after he was selected in the first round by the Chiefs. After an injury-riddled second year, many dynasty managers are pivoting away from him.
He is sitting at a crossroads in his career. Edwards-Helaire is either going to bounce back up and develop into a functional running back for fantasy. Or he’s going to fall into the other path and continue to disappoint dynasty gamers.
Injuries have played a major part in his effectiveness on the field. He might need an off-season of recovery to get back to full health. With that being said, his current ADP at 60.50 overall could be considered a discount if he turns things around. However, it’s also an expensive premium to pay if he continues to not perform on the field.
Darrel Williams (ADP = 137.17, RB43)
Williams rushed for 558 yards and six touchdowns this season while averaging 3.9 yards per carry. He will be testing the waters in free agency this off-season. The fact that he is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry on his career is an indicator telling us the Chiefs might try to find someone else whether it be through the draft or free agency to fill his spot. Williams was a speculation play in dynasty a long time ago. Those days are over. Even if he does re-sign with the team, he’s never going to be a top-tier running back in the league.
Jerick McKinnon (ADP = N/A)
McKinnon has been doing his best work in the playoffs. Against the Steelers and the Bills, he caught a total of 11 passes for 135 yards and one touchdown. He has looked very explosive and has been a key piece to the Chiefs’ offense. McKinnon is playing for his future considering he is set to hit free agency at the end of the season. If he continues to play well, the team might feel obligated to offer another contract. If this happens, we should see a decent bump in his dynasty value.
Derrick Gore (ADP = 226.83, RB75)
Gore rushed for 256 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season. The former undrafted free agent is expected to hit free agency this off-season. His status with the team is up in the air. The odds of him being on a 53-man roster next season are not very good.
Darwin Thompson (ADP = N/A)
The Chiefs waived Thompson in August. He then signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and was on their practice squad. The Chiefs re-signed him and placed him back on their practice squad in January for the playoffs. He will be a free agent in 2022. Thompson will not be considered a hot commodity in free agency. We might see him bounce around the league a little bit more, but his career is almost over.
Brenden Knox (ADP = N/A)
Knox signed a reserve future contract with the Chiefs in January. He is signed with the team through 2022 and will get the opportunity to compete for a roster spot this off-season.
WIDE RECEIVER
Tyreek Hill (ADP = 11.50, WR5)
Courtesy of RotoViz.
Hill posted 1,239 yards and nine touchdowns while finishing the season as the WR6 in PPR. He was very volatile in fantasy this season as he produced six WR1 weeks and nine weeks where he was a WR3 or worse. We saw him place fifth in the league with 1,617 air yards while owning a 27 percent target share.
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Comparison Tool.
Since Hill is one of the most productive wide receivers in the league, his dynasty value is holding steady. He is signed with the team through 2022 and it is hard to imagine a Chiefs team led by Mahomes without Hill. There’s a good chance he gets re-signed after his contract expires. However, he turns 28 years old in March, and since he’s one of the older premier wide receivers in the league, he will experience a major drop in value if he experiences a down year. On the flip side, his weekly upside in fantasy makes a large enough of an impact that it could help be the reason why you win your league.
I’m all about rostering Hill in dynasty, but you need to be aware that there will be a sharp decline in trade value on the horizon. Considering he will be turning 28 years old soon, all it takes is an injury for dynasty gamers to realize he’s an aging asset. You can enjoy the production for the remainder of his career, but buyers need to beware that Hill could see a drop off on the trade market sooner than later. Not to mention father time is undefeated.
Mecole Hardman (ADP = 162.33, WR70)
Courtesy of RotoViz.
Hardman had the most productive season of his career by reeling in 59 passes for 693 yards and two touchdowns. He saw a 12 percent target share while seeing 565 air yards. From a fantasy football perspective, he was a volatile WR3. Hardman posted six double-digit PPR performances while also delivering ten games scoring in the single-digits.
Courtesy of DLF’s Dynasty ADP Comparison Tool.
Over the last two years, we’ve seen Hardman drop from a top-100 player to being a player drafted outside of the top 150 in startup drafts as the WR70. He is signed with the team through 2022 and will be a free agent the following year. With his dynasty value being tethered to the Chiefs’ offense, it will kill his long-term player value if the Chiefs allow him to hit free agency.
Byron Pringle (ADP = 231.50, ADP105)
Pringle caught 42 passes for 568 yards and five touchdowns this season. With an 11.3 average depth of target, he was utilized as one of the team’s deep-ball targets. Most fantasy gamers didn’t trust inserting him into their lineup due to the lack of production. He had 12 games where he scored less than ten PPR fantasy points.
He is scheduled to hit free agency this off-season. Considering the team signed him to a $2.133 million one-year contract last off-season, the odds are good the team looks to re-sign him again on a cheap deal.
Demarcus Robinson (ADP = N/A)
Robinson had a quiet season by catching just 25 passes for 264 yards and three touchdowns. He is expected to be a free agent in the off-season. More than likely, the team is going to let the 27-year-old wide receiver hit the open market and look for a younger prospect with more upside to fill the void.
Marcus Kemp (ADP = N/A)
Kemp caught two passes for 24 yards this season with the Chiefs. He has spent six seasons with the organization on top of spending a little bit of time with the Miami Dolphins. During that time he has caught four balls for 42 yards. Kemp will be a free agent this off-season. He has never been relevant in fantasy football, therefore it’s highly unlikely he will ever hold any value in fantasy no matter where he signs in free agency.
Josh Gordon (ADP = N/A)
I’m old enough to remember when Gordon was a god back in 2013 where he caught 87 passes for 1,646 yards and nine touchdowns for the Cleveland Browns. Even though it was at a limited capacity, it was still a breath of fresh air to see Gordon on the field this year. He was waived and signed onto the practice squad in January. He is set to hit free agency this off-season as a 31-year-old wide receiver. The years of him being a stud dynasty asset are over, but that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy seeing him play until his career is officially said and done.
Cornell Powell (ADP = N/A)
The Chiefs signed Powell to the practice squad back in September. He has yet to catch his first pass in the league. The team drafted him in the fifth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He will be a free agent this off-season. Considering he has been hanging out on the practice squad all season, there’s a chance they could look to cut ties from Powell in favor of a wide receiver who delivers more upside.
Daurice Fountain (ADP = N/A)
Fountain was signed to the team’s practice squad back in October. He is scheduled to be a restricted free agent this off-season. Since he has caught just two passes in his two-year career, the odds are stacked against him being a valuable fantasy asset.
TIGHT END
Travis Kelce (ADP = 43.17, TE4)
Chart courtesy of RotoViz.
In 16 games, Kelce managed to catch 92 passes for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns. He finished the season as the TE2 and averaged 16.4 PPR fantasy points per game. As a fantasy asset, he was very stable on a week-to-week basis by producing 11 TE1 weeks. He ranked fourth among all tight ends with 959 air yards while also placing third with a 23 percent target share.
Courtesy of DLF’s Dynasty ADP Comparison Tool.
Kelce’s startup draft ADP was at its highest last summer with him being a top-15 overall pick. Now his value is currently sitting at a low with him risking falling out of the top 50. There’s a chance, once we infuse the rookies into startup draft ADP, that Kelce falls outside of the top 50 in the next few months.
The reason for the decline in his value even with him posting a TE2 fantasy season is his age. He turns 33 in October, making him one of the oldest tight ends in the league. There are not many middle-aged players in the league producing at a high level which would make him a massive outlier if he continues to produce at this pace.
If you are planning to rebuild your dynasty team within a three-year window, then trading for Kelce wouldn’t be an optimal move since he will be pushing 36 years old by the time your team is built to compete again. If your dynasty team needs the top-tier production for the now, and winning championships are your main focus, then Kelce might be a prime target.
One thing to note about Kelce before everyone bakes age too much into his long-term player value. He is in a generational situation where he’s one of the key focal points to the offense. Even if his athleticism drops off, there’s a very good chance that he can be productive through volume. That fact that he’s receiving quality targets from Mahomes, gives him a chance to be the outlier that bucks the age-apex.
Like I said before, father time is undefeated. His age and the potential drop-off are already baked into his ADP and possibly his price tag on the trade market. With that being said, we could see his trade value continuously depreciate as we get further into his career. Dynasty gamers need to factor in his trade value for the long-term when determining whether or not they should acquire Kelce in trades.
Blake Bell (ADP = N/A)
Bell caught nine passes for 87 yards this season. He has been in the league since 2015 and has bounced around the league, playing with San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, and this year was his second stint with the Chiefs. He will be hitting free agency this off-season. He has never been considered a functional fantasy asset. Therefore, no matter where he signs, there should be a limited impact on his dynasty value.
Noah Gray (ADP = N/A)
The Chiefs selected Gray in the fifth round of last year’s draft. During his rookie season, he caught seven catches for 36 yards and one touchdown. Gray has slightly above average athleticism with a 63rd percentile size-adjusted speed score. During his career at Duke, he caught 848 yards and eight touchdowns.
Kelce is going to be the team’s tight end for the foreseeable future. Gray will need to work his way up to the depth chart and somehow receive the opportunity to prove himself for him to develop into a valued dynasty asset. The odds are stacked against him, and dynasty gamers should only think of him as waiver wire fodder.
Matt Bushman (ADP = N/A)
Bushman was an undrafted free agent from last year’s draft class. He was initially on the Raiders’ practice squad before signing on to the Chiefs’ practice squad in January. The rookie tight end will be a free agent this off-season. We are projecting him to be a prospect who bounces between practice squads during most of his career.
Mark Vital (ADP = N/A)
Vital was originally on the Seattle Seahawks practice squad before signing onto the Chiefs’ practice squad back in September. He is scheduled to be a free agent this off-season. Vital will be a camp-body for some team in training camp.
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