Sunday Six Pack: Week Ten
The fantasy football community lost a great person recently when Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros passed away from COVID-19, despite being fully vaccinated against the disease. His shocking and sudden passing has left a huge void behind the scenes in the industry and he leaves behind a beautiful family, including Tabbie (Mike’s wife) and their children, Alyssa (18) and Jonathan (4). Many have rallied to support the Tagliere family and there’s a GoFundMe account set up to do just that. If any of you feel the calling to give, there are few people better to support than “Tags.” He will be missed!
This Sunday Six Pack is a traditional article at DLF and a part of our content strategy for over six years. As always, we will cover six dynasty-relevant storylines to watch on the Sunday slate of NFL games. I’m honored to be here every week, putting my spin on this series. Most excitingly, it’s become a two-part article this year! Every Monday, the hangover article will drop, reviewing the Six Pack based on what happened on Sunday. Without further ado, let’s jump straight into the first storyline!
The Mike White Experience
Once again, the Jets will start 2018 fifth-round pick Mike White at quarterback this week, in place of an injured Zach Wilson. In week seven, Wilson suffered a knee injury, and White immediately entered the lineup, giving the Jets a spark.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
White didn’t make a difference in the week seven blowout, but he had a star turn in week eight.
Even after the Jets traded for Joe Flacco, White drew the week eight start and led the Jets to an impressive 34-31 victory over the Bengals. He threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns, even though he missed some time in that game with an injury. Unfortunately, he had yet another injury in week nine, cutting his run short and forcing the Jets to turn to Josh Johnson.
Of course, the Jets committed the second overall pick to draft Wilson in the 2021 NFL Draft. Therefore, they will eventually return to Wilson as their starter, likely no matter how well White plays. However, White could remain the starting quarterback as long as he plays well this season, potentially earning another chance to start elsewhere or at least the Jets’ long-term backup job behind Wilson.
This week, the Jets get top receiver Corey Davis back in the lineup, giving White his full complement of weapons. The Bills are an extremely tough matchup, though, which could present a challenge for White. If he plays well in this game, look for dynasty managers to panic about Wilson’s value. I’ll review potential Wilson trades in the Monday Hangover article.
The Bills’ Offense
I don’t think this storyline is a big deal right now, but it could be if the Bills underperform this week. Last week, the Bills put up a total flop in an embarrassing 9-6 loss to the Jaguars. Josh Allen managed 264 passing yards, but he threw two interceptions and no touchdowns. The Bills’ running game also provided zero value, as Devin Singletary and Zack Moss totaled nine carries for 22 yards. I think it’s abundantly clear that the Bills require an actual top running back, as neither Singletary nor Moss will cut it for them.
Stefon Diggs had a good game with six receptions for 85 yards, but he just hasn’t been the same player he was in 2020. So far, Diggs is the WR22 in PPR scoring and in fantasy PPG, which is a far cry from his WR3 finish in 2020. The Bills have other weapons, as Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, and Dawson Knox have all played well this year.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
Looking back at Diggs’ entire career, his 2020 season looks like an outlier that may have occurred due to the Bills’ lack of alternative weapons.
Overall, though, I still believe in Allen and the Bills’ offense. Yes, there are some minor issues. They need a real RB1, and Diggs won’t be the fantasy force some envisioned. However, if the Bills struggle against the Jets this week, it might be time for a more serious conversation about this offense.
Michael Pittman’s Rise to Stardom
I wrote my final off-season article on Pittman, discussing him as a potential second-year leap. Despite having Carson Wentz as his quarterback, Pittman has become a star and the Colts’ clear top receiving weapon.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
As you can see, Pittman leads the Colts in targets and receptions by a wide margin, and he has more than double the receiving yards of any other player on the team. Zach Pascal is a fine player, but he’s just a guy. After that, the Colts’ third and fourth receiving targets are running backs Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Taylor, neither of whom represent threats to Pittman.
Right now, Pittman is the WR8 in PPR formats, although he hasn’t had his bye week yet. But he’s still the WR16 in fantasy PPG, which is a high-end WR2. This week, the Colts face the lowly Jaguars, although the Jaguars played well against the Bills last week. Either way, I expect Pittman to have another monster game and solidify his place among high-end dynasty wide receivers. His October DLF ADP price of WR35 and 65.75 overall looks silly now.
Pat Freiermuth: Future Top-Five Dynasty Tight End
It’s time to recognize it. Freiermuth is going to be a stud fantasy tight end very soon. He wasn’t particularly on the radar during rookie draft season, as Kyle Pitts and his generational talent overshadowed him.
But now, Freiermuth already finds himself as the TE15 in PPR scoring, with 27 receptions on 33 targets for 245 yards and four touchdowns in eight games. He’s averaging 9.44 PPR points per game, which doesn’t sound like much. However, that’s quite impressive for a rookie tight end. For a comparison, Freiermuth has already outperformed the entire rookie years of players like Mike Gesicki and Cole Kmet.
Freiermuth began to emerge once the Steelers lost JuJu Smith-Schuster for the season.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
In week five, Smith-Schuster suffered a season-ending shoulder injury, and Freiermuth suddenly saw an increase in snap share in week six. Then, the Steelers lost Eric Ebron in that contest, and Freiermuth excelled, catching all seven of his targets for 58 yards.
Coming out of the Steelers’ week seven bye week, they realized that Freiermuth should be crucial for their offense. He saw high snap shares in weeks eight and nine, totaling three touchdowns between the two games. Even though Ebron should return this week, it seems impossible that the Steelers will return to him as a significant offensive weapon.
The Steelers draw an incredibly favorable matchup this week versus the Lions. Chase Claypool will miss this game with a toe injury, leaving Freiermuth as Ben Roethlisberger’s second receiving option behind target hog Diontae Johnson. Right now, I rank Freiermuth as my dynasty TE9 in a tier with Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, and Noah Fant behind the “big six” dynasty tight ends. However, if he continues to play well, he’ll quickly rise to the top of this tier with an eye on moving up even further.
Antonio Gibson’s Role and Health
Gibson may be the most disappointing player in dynasty leagues so far this season. He was the RB7 and 12th overall player selected in DLF’s September ADP. Therefore, dynasty managers and the dynasty market saw Gibson as a potential RB1 and a future cornerstone asset heading into the 2021 season.
Unfortunately, between his role and his health, Gibson hasn’t delivered on any of that promise so far. He’s currently the RB21, but he’s averaging only 12.45 PPR points per game, placing him 26th among running backs to play at least four games this season.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
As you can see, Gibson only has one 20-point game this season, coming in week five. Outside of that one game, he’s failed to score 18 PPR points in any other contest this season. Most notably, his performance has dipped even further lately, with single-digit outputs from week six to week eight. In week eight, Washington turned to Jaret Patterson on the ground, and he saw 11 carries to Gibson’s eight.
Gibson has struggled with a stress fracture in his shin all season, which may explain his reduced fantasy output. However, he just had the bye week to rest, so if he can’t be fully healthy now, he likely won’t be for the rest of the season. He also continues to lose passing-game work to JD McKissic, who has almost precisely doubled Gibson’s targets and receptions so far this year.
Washington face the Buccaneers this week, which is an absolutely brutal matchup for opposing running backs. But I’m not even looking for Gibson to have a massive fantasy day. I want to see if he’s healthy and whether he can return to a higher usage share. If Patterson continues to siphon carries and McKissic gets receiving work, Gibson won’t even be a startable fantasy player moving forward. His long-term dynasty value is on the line over these next few weeks.
Jerry Jeudy Breakout Time?
I love Jerry Jeudy. I wrote an article on him this off-season, and I believe he has all the talent to become a star NFL receiver. But, unfortunately, he suffered a high-ankle sprain in week one in the middle of an excellent performance. He led the Broncos’ wide receivers with seven targets in that game, even though he only played 47% of the snaps due to his injury. He caught six of those seven looks for 72 yards, far ahead of his teammate Courtland Sutton, who had one catch for 13 yards.
Jeudy missed six games after his ankle injury, eventually returning in week eight. However, he was far from himself in that game. The Broncos barely passed the ball that week, as they didn’t need to in a 17-10 victory over Washington. Jeudy did catch all four of his targets for 39 yards, but he wasn’t fully integrated into the Broncos’ offense.
However, in week nine, Jeudy finally reclaimed his lead role. He led the Broncos with eight targets, catching six of them for 69 yards. Once again, Sutton took a backseat with only two targets and one reception. At this point, it’s clear to me that Jeudy is ahead of Sutton in the pecking order, and it’s only a matter of time before Jeudy has his real breakout game.
This week, the Broncos face the Eagles, who are vulnerable to slot receivers. Jeudy often plays from the slot, unlike Sutton, who exclusively lines up outside. Therefore, Jeudy will avoid star cornerback Darius Slay, allowing him to succeed. Once Jeudy has an actual breakout performance, he’ll become impossible to acquire in dynasty formats. He only turns 23 years old in April, and he will get a quarterback upgrade this off-season. I’m all in on Jeudy, and I’m excited to watch him this week.
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