Value Volatility: Ten Dynasty Players Requiring Confidence to Own
As a dynasty owner, you think about player value all the time. Engaged owners are always looking at the latest rankings, ADP, sleepers, busts, and using our tools here at DLF in an attempt to correctly assess what their players are worth, who to draft (and when) and to accurately find viable trade targets. Every year brings us some extremely difficult players to assess and this off-season is no different. I changed the title of this article four or five times until I landed on what I really want to talk about today – the list of players in this discussion are simply taking an extraordinary amount of confidence to own. Many of them could rise or fall in value over the next year and neither would be much of a surprise. Many of these players are getting a prime opportunity in the league, others are trying to hold on to past glory and a few are making us review old tape to see what we could have missed one way or another. With all that being said, let’s take a look at some of the most volatile players to own in dynasty leagues at the moment – these players really define the phrase, “No guts, no glory.”
Chase Edmonds, RB ARI
With Kenyan Drake now attempting to siphon the life out of Josh Jacobs owners in Las Vegas, Edmonds has a prime opportunity to emerge as a truly viable weekly starter in dynasty leagues. The Cardinals were one of the teams rumored to have interest in players like Travis Etienne or Najee Harris in this year’s draft, but decided to add former Steeler James Conner to the running back room instead. While Conner is somewhat of a household name, he simply hasn’t looked the same since his magical 2018 season and while the coaching staff is continuing to say both will play a lot on early downs, Edmonds simply looks like the more explosive player. This is a huge opportunity for Edmonds and on a team with a lot of holes already filled, he needs to have some success this season or the Cardinals will surely be looking to find a new starter next season. With Edmonds on a low-cost contract and Conner on a one-year deal, Arizona has the ability to move on from both of them after this year with relative ease – Edmonds needs a good season to cash in on a long-term deal and become a staple in dynasty lineups into the future.
Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
Wait. What!?! How can someone who has never played a down in the NFL be on this list? Well, that’s pretty easy. Pitts’ dynasty value at the moment has him as the TE3 (ahead of players like Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, TJ Hockenson, and many more) and sporting an overall ADP of under 30. The logic is sound and simple for those who have taken Pitts this highly – the scarcity of the position creates a significant advantage when you have a dynamic tight end like Travis Kelce or George Kittle and that much is really indisputable. However, the risk is equally as obvious. If you look at ADP in 1QB leagues, Pitts is currently being taken ahead of established players like Kittle, Michael Thomas, Terry McLaurin, Patrick Mahomes, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin and a whole host of others. Simply put, dynasty owners are drafting him as the next Kelce or Kittle and that value is already baked in. Pitts could be a great player who justifies the lofty draft capital, but you have to be 100% confident he’s going to perform at a high level or you risk drafting the next Eric Ebron about ten or twelve rounds too early, a death knell for a dynasty team.
Sam Darnold, QB CAR
Was the failure in New York more Adam Gase or more Sam Darnold? Conventional wisdom says it was Gase, who has proven time and again to be an awful Head Coach and generally odd human being. Still, Darnold did not live up to the hype that comes with a player taken in the top three of an NFL Draft, widely regarded by many to have been the best quarterback taken in his draft class. Over his three seasons in New York, Darnold threw for 8,097 yards, with 45 touchdowns and 39 interceptions in 38 total starts. While those numbers aren’t terrible, they’re far from what you need to legitimately compete in today’s NFL. Darnold gets a much needed fresh start in Carolina and has better weapons with the likes of Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore and former teammate Robby Anderson. With his career hanging in the balance, he needs a big year to reclaim some dynasty value. If he doesn’t, he’s looking like a wasted rookie pick and a player you’d have no chance of moving for any type of value next off-season.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA
At this point, you likely know the story. When Tua came on the scene in relief of Jalen Hurts to lead Alabama to a National Championship, dynasty owners starting salivating at the prospects of having him on their future dynasty squads. Over his three seasons in Tuscaloosa, he lived up to the hype as he threw for 77 touchdowns with just 11 interceptions, all while completing just under 70% of his throws and looking like the next big thing at the position. A late season hip injury threw everything into flux, with it culminating in Tagovailoa dropping to the fifth pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. His rookie season in Miami was full of ups and downs and he was generally outplayed by Ryan Fitzpatrick. While his numbers weren’t bad (64% completion percentage, 1,814 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, five interceptions), Tua looked like a game manager more than an explosive playmaker and has continued to look this way so far this preseason. With his hip now completely healed and Fitzpatrick moving on to Washington, the stage is set for Tagovailoa to take a big step forward this season. Patience doesn’t exist in the NFL, so he’ll need to develop sooner, rather than later to avoid the rumors of Miami being interested in Deshaun Watson or others starting to swirl again. That, of course, is a whole other story.
D’Andre Swift, RB DET
Swift was solid last year for the Lions as he posted 521 rushing yards, 46 catches, 357 receiving yards and a total of ten touchdowns. Simply put, he looked the part. However, this off-season has seen him rise all the way up to RB6 in our dynasty rankings, a lofty ranking for a player with only 13 games played in his career. In addition, the Lions brought in Jamaal Williams this off-season and have stated many times they envision Williams and Swift to be a 1-2 punch in the backfield. If this rings true, that’s a lot of capital to spend on Swift, especially when you consider his ADP has him being taken ahead of players like DeAndre Hopkins, Aaron Jones, Ja’Marr Chase, JK Dobbins, Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders and a whole host of others. It’s very possible Swift turns into the next Alvin Kamara and has his career extended by not getting 25 touches a week, but owners need to have supreme confidence this happens or they’re risking some serious value regression. With Jared Goff at the helm, I’m more than a little nervous owning Swift at the moment.
Carson Wentz, QB IND
His Colts tenure has started the same way his Eagles one ended – with Wentz on the sidelines nursing an injury. After undergoing off-season surgery, Wentz won’t see the football field for a bit, though his prognosis is reportedly very good. They say the best ability is availability and many believe Wentz just needs to be on the field to recapture glory as a bona fide QB1. I’m not so sure about that. Wentz was hounded in the backfield the past couple of seasons as his makeshift offensive line couldn’t block a flock of Wal-Mart Black Friday shoppers. While his career numbers are good (2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 63% completion percentage and a quarterback rating just shy of 90), he has also posted a whopping 37 fumbles and has been sacked 179 times in just five seasons, including 50 just last year in only 12 games. Yep, that’s more than four per game. Wentz started to (understandably) get happy feet last season and it’s fair to wonder if the Eagles didn’t “David Carr” him the past few years. Time will tell, but this is a huge season for Wentz. He needs to get back on the field and produce quickly or he’s going to become a QB2/3 afterthought in dynasty leagues very quickly.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC
If you have CEH on your roster right now, you no doubt invested some serious capital to get him last season. After all, his ADP rose all the way up to 4.25 last October as he become the 1.01 in the majority of rookie drafts. Unfortunately, his rookie season was anything but worthy of that lofty ranking as he posted just 803 rushing yards, 36 catches, 297 receiving yards and scored only five times on the season, despite playing in the most explosive offense in football. In short, that was a disaster. Hope springs eternal now as CEH has only the likes of Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson and Jerick McKinnon for carries this season and the Chiefs seem to still be fully invested in him. Another season like last year would send his current ADP of 21 into a tailspin, though. If you aren’t 100% positive last year was just a slow start for his career, it may be time to get some serious value while you still can. While it’s going to be “top 20” value instead of “top 5 value,” that’s a lot better than what it could be if he doesn’t produce some markedly improved numbers this season.
Damien Harris, RB NE
Choosing a Patriots running back has been like reaching your hand into the bad Jelly Belly jelly beans pile and hoping you come out with soap instead of vomit – they’re all bad, but you make the best of it. At this point, can we just say there’s simply not going to be the next Corey Dillon (1,635 rushing yards seventeen years ago) or next Randy Moss (98/1,493/23 fourteen years ago)? It’s just not going to happen. We all know Bill Belichick has his ways and those ways lend themselves to distributing the football to a whole host of skill players instead of focusing on just one. With all that being said, Harris has been receiving nothing but praise all off-season, giving us a glimmer of hope after he was used sparingly as a rookie, then performing much better last season with almost 700 rushing yards on a robust five yards per carry. Simply put, this year is huge for Harris. Upstart rookie Rhamondre Stevenson is making a case for some work, but Harris has every opportunity to establish himself as the lead back. If you believe he’ll do that, it may be worth holding on to him, then either riding it out or selling quickly after he has a few big games. Regardless, this year is pivotal for Harris and it’s going to take some courage to ride this out instead of cashing out while the hype train is steaming down the tracks.
Jalen Hurts, QB PHI
The Eagles have been eerily hesitant to commit to Hurts this season, no less for the long-term. While he was a fantasy savior for many teams last season, Hurts may have been a little better in fantasy than reality. Philadelphia is in no way attached to him long-term and look to simply be willing to see what he can do this year, then make a determination at the end of the season on his future. His ADP has risen all the way up to 126 and Hurts is currently the QB15 and that ranking is sure to either go way up or way down at the end of the season. He clearly has talent and his teammates reportedly love playing with him. However, he doesn’t have elite talent and has been prone to some ugly mistakes. How lucky do you feel?
O’Dell Beckham, WR CLE
The owner of what could be the most volatile ADP in the history of, well, ADP, OBJ currently sits right around 77 – a far cry from being the consensus overall top player after the 2016 season. His tenure with the Browns has been a train wreck featuring a lack of usage, injuries and generally poor performances. In fact, OBJ has just seven touchdowns in his 23 games played in Cleveland, which is pretty amazing for a player who used to average almost 12 per season at the beginning of his career in New York. Now 28 (and turning 29 in November), it’s put up or shut up time for Beckham. While Baker Mayfield can be blamed for some of the trouble he’s had, OBJ has simply not looked the same and that was prior to his torn ACL last year. This is going to be some tough sledding for him in a run-oriented offense, but he has the talent to overcome it. If he doesn’t and you have some shares of him, you’re going to be left holding the worst of all Jelly Belly flavors – the booger.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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