2021 NFL Draft Prospect: Kadarius Toney, WR Florida
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2021 NFL Draft prospect Kadarius Toney, WR from Florida. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned and stay ahead of your league!
No rookie wide receiver has seen their stock rise more since January than Kadarius Toney, who is now projected as a possible first-round NFL Draft selection. But is it curious that his value rose the most after the games stopped being played? Let’s take a closer look at this rookie on the rise.
THE STATS
Toney was a high school quarterback. In his final two years as a prep, he threw for 6,600 yards and 69 touchdowns. In that context, it makes sense that he could take some time to acclimate to the college game. But how much time is acceptable?
He was quiet his first three years at Florida, catching only 50 passes for 606 yards and two touchdowns. This is a red flag since for three seasons he was unable to earn targets over players such as Van Jefferson, Freddie Swain and Josh Hammond.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
It was not until his senior season that Toney managed to cross the 20% team market share threshold that serves as a benchmark predictor of NFL success – and he just managed it with a 21.8% mark. He did so while competing for targets with projected top-ten pick Kyle Pitts, but Pitts played in just eight games.
Surely someone with the skills of a future NFL first-rounder will find other ways to make an impact while they learn the wide receiver position? But in those first three seasons, Toney saw the field for just ten combined kick and punt returns.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Additionally, he was suspended for the 2018 season opener for two separate off-season incidents, and in 2019 he missed six games due to injury. He finally produced 1,145 yards from scrimmage as a senior. At first glance these are nice numbers, but a closer look calls them into question.
First, he played 82% of his snaps from the slot in 2020, per Pro Football Focus. It is therefore difficult to project him to an outside role in the NFL. Next, his senior “breakout” season fell short of the baseline production correlated with fantasy success. In this context, this one-year wonder is not even that.
The DLF College Market Share App.
THE FILM
https://youtu.be/xttnZPCzZSM
This video is just one of six included on Toney’s DLF Film Page.
Despite the concerns voiced in this writeup, Toney is fun to watch. He is skilled at creating yards after the catch in a variety of ways. He does not just rely on short-area quickness or burst but can also use strength and balance to maintain his footing and create big plays.
Kadarius Toney hit all the buttons on this run 🕹 pic.twitter.com/ELLhx4SVT6
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 9, 2019
The numbers confirm his ability to elude tacklers.
Highest missed tackle rate per touch in 2020 (WRs)
1. Jaelon Darden – 31%
2. Kadarius Toney – 30% pic.twitter.com/8rAYQXvtmE— PFF College (@PFF_College) March 27, 2021
THE MEASURABLES
Toney had an excellent Pro Day on campus on March 31. He confirmed his short-area explosion with an 11’4” broad jump. The average among historical wide receiver prospects is around 10’2”.
His 40-yard dash was in the 4.39-4.41-second range, which is very good even at 5’11” and 189 pounds.
Kadarius Toney runs an unofficial 4.39.
He also had 40.5" vertical earlier. pic.twitter.com/tAMaG7VQqj
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) March 31, 2021
He did not take part in the bench press or agility drills. But when your broad jump and 40-yard dash results produce an overall athletic grade like this, why tarnish it with additional data points?
Courtesy of relativeathleticscores.com.
DYNASTY VALUE
Toney has a tenth-round dynasty startup value with an overall ADP of 115. As dynasty’s WR56, he is in the neighborhood of wide receivers such as DeVante Parker, Gabriel Davis and fellow rookies Tylan Wallace and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Note that Toney is the oldest of these three rookies and at 22 years old is already older than the 21-year-old Davis.
In terms of rookie ADP, in 1QB leagues, Toney ranks 19th, suggesting he will be taken around the 2.07 rookie pick. Players in this area include North Carolina running back Michael Carter and Oklahoma State running back Chuba Hubbard. In 2QB/Superflex Rookie ADP he falls about five spots to 22nd, implying a value around the 2.10 pick, among such players as Ole Miss wide receiver Elijah Moore and Florida quarterback Kyle Trask.
There is a disconnect between Toney’s dynasty value and his projected NFL Draft capital. His NFL draft projection has risen sharply since the end of the season but his dynasty value has not followed. Though he is commonly seen as a first-rounder in the NFL, his rookie ADP is still in the mid-to-late second round.
Has the dynasty community rejected the NFL’s optimism, or have we just been slow to react to his rapid post-season rise? One way or the other, expect these values to eventually converge by the time rookie drafts go live. For what it is worth, I have been on the record since November contending his dynasty value should fall, not rise.
Data from NFL Mock Draft Database.
CONCLUSION
Kadarius Toney is an exciting prospect with some red flags. Those red flags are creating a disconnect between his anticipated first-round NFL Draft capital and his second-round dynasty rookie ADP. If an NFL team does indeed make Toney a first-round pick, look for his dynasty ADP to rise.
However, his ADP ceiling is limited given the top-end quality of receivers in this draft, including Ja’Marr Chase and Rashod Bateman. This should cap Toney’s top end at the late-first or early-second round of rookie drafts, though I maintain his overall profile matches that of a late-second round dynasty rookie.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
