2021 Dynasty Capsule: Los Angeles Chargers
Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
Seemingly apt at shooting themselves in the foot all year, the Chargers had a better season than it looked like if you just checked scores on Sunday. However, due to coaching issues, injuries, and general Charger-ness, they finished just 7-9 and third in the tough AFC West. A new head coach is in town and a promising young quarterback has ascended, so let’s break down the year that was and look forward to the future.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (ADP: 69.17, QB6)
Age: 22
Herbert’s rookie year is nothing short of historic. He currently holds the record for most touchdowns as a rookie, most yards per game, and is second in completion percentage – all because of a botched routine procedure that knocked Tyrod Taylor out after a single game. You could not make this type of ascent up.
The sky is the limit for Herbert, who completely crushed his rookie campaign and with a new offensive coordinator who spent a long time with Drew Brees (Joe Lombardi), we could see his star grow. There is always the chance of a sophomore slump and non-Covid defenses figuring out his tendencies, but what Herbert has shown on the field is incredibly impressive.
I do worry slightly about the QB6 price tag after a single year, but it could be one of his cheapest times to get in. You would be hard-pressed to find a seller at this stage, but since he was not expected to be the best of the 2020 rookie QBs coming into this accursed season, someone could be looking to turn a profit. I want to see a full season of Joe Burrow and more from other young QBs like Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts before I’m ready to pull the trigger at QB6. I know that young QBs are incredibly hard to come by in superflex and QB-centric formats. In 1QB leagues, I’m happy to pass on QB till the Matthew Staffords and Ryan Tannehills come home to roost.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler (ADP: 27.67, RB17)
Age: 25
Quite the decisive player in dynasty and redraft circles, Ekeler unfortunately didn’t get a chance to really prove his doubters wrong. He missed six games with injury but led the team in rushing yards and attempts. Fantasy owners were fawning over his receiving chops and he did them right by coming in fourth on the team in targets even with the missed time. His full-season pace would have put him right on the fringe of an RB1 in PPR formats.
RB17 is a very fair price for a player who has little competition when he is healthy and will be in a potentially deadly offense. At 25, you are nearing the start of age questions but he has not spent much time as a featured guy – he has 30 more career carries than Derrick Henry had in 2020 alone, and is only 25.
Joshua Kelley (ADP: 156, RB53)
Kelley never really reached the stars that many had hoped the rookie out of UCLA would reach when Ekeler was lost to injury. His role didn’t really change much before or after the injury, especially when the team dredged up the remains of Kallen Ballage. I think the future isn’t exactly over for the rookie. He did look really good at times, and at others looked like a two-yard dive into his offensive line. He’s a nice late roster addition to hold for better days at a price of RB53.
Wide Receiver
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Keenan Allen (ADP: 45.83, WR19)
Age: 28
Even with missed time, Allen put together a slightly above-average season for him. Of course, anyone who had Allen on a roster remembers his decoy game in the playoffs, but you can’t fault him for that. He crushed anyone else in terms of targets, receptions and yards, while his touchdown numbers reached his highest number yet – no small feat with missing three games. His 16-game pace would have been his best season to date. His yards per reception still pales in comparison to other threats on the team, but this keeps him as a fine PPR asset.
Allen is still one of the best route runners in the league and can dominate from the slot. The 28-year-old was clearly helped along by the ascension of Herbert, and is under contract for another three years. Even with the length of his contract, the closer you get to 30 as a receiver, the closer you get to a production cliff that is most unkind.
In terms of a fantasy asset, Allen should continue to be a value to owners and will be very lucrative on Sundays catching passes from Herbert. If Hunter Henry or Mike Williams steps away in free agency, Allen’s numbers would be quite impressive, he would easily be worth buying from those looking wearily at his age and not much else.
Mike Williams (ADP: 104, WR51)
Age: 26
Primarily used as a deeper threat, Williams had a fitting season as second fiddle to Allen. Though he was second on the team in receiving yards, he spent some time banged up. The most important thing to remember with Williams is that he is a pending free agent, so time will tell if he gets to stay with a promising young quarterback or seek other pastures. I think he can still shine on any team as a wonderful second option and his price is very good for a player with his pedigree.
Jalen Guyton (ADP: 233.33, WR103)
Age: 24
Primarily used as a deep threat, Guyton was the guy you were wondering who he was when the Herbert long bomb touchdown alerts hit your phone. The UDFA player out of North Texas came on late in the season as injuries piled up for Allen and Williams. I’m including him here because if Williams moves on in free agency, he is slated for a very friendly role in the offense and anyone getting targets from Herbert is likely going to be productive. He is a great late-round flyer. With a 4.35-second 40-yard time he fits that bill perfectly.
Tight End
Hunter Henry (ADP: 110, TE10)
Age: 26
If anything is a testament to how ugly the tight end position is in dynasty football, it’s that Hunter Henry still being valued as a top ten player. Now looking at free agency, he has yet to even sniff his vaunted potential for the Chargers or for fantasy owners. A new team could rekindle his value but even at the price of TE10, there are other players I want to take shots on who have yet to be a disappointment.
However, it’s important to remember he’s been beguiled by the full force of the Chargers injury curse and is only 26, which is a spring chicken in tight end years. I’d be looking at players like Mike Gesicki and Jonnu Smith who are cheaper based on ADP.
Donald Parham (ADP: 228, TE31)
Age: 23
TE31 isn’t exactly a spot you want to run out and fill your rosters with but being the only tight end on the roster gives him a small boost going into 2021 if Henry leaves. Herbert is going to be slinging it and being involved in a high-powered offense is never a bad thing.
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