2021 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson

The term “generational prospect” gets vastly overused in pre-draft analysis and scouting, but it may actually be justified when it comes to Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. It’s rare that a player enters college with the fanfare and hype that Lawrence did while managing to meet and even surpass expectations, but he’s now the new “best prospect since Andrew Luck” and for good reason.

AS A RECRUIT

Lawrence was a four-year starter at Cartersville High School in Cartersville, Georgia. He earned the starting quarterback job in the third game of his freshman season and never looked back, compiling a 52-2 record in his illustrious high school career, which included a 41-game winning streak and a 14-2 record in the playoffs. He led his team to four region titles and two state titles, and set state records for passing yards and touchdowns once held by Deshaun Watson.

Some of the accolades he racked up included the USA Today National Offensive Player of the Year, the U.S. Army Player-of-the-Year, and the Gatorade Player of the Year in Georgia as both a junior and a senior. Because of his success, traits, and measurables, Lawrence became a historically good recruit. According to 247Sports’ composite ranking, not only was Lawrence the top overall recruit in the 2018 class, he was actually the sixth-highest rated recruit of all time at any position with a .9999 grade (out of 1.0000).

Image from 247 Sports.

Clemson offered Lawrence on May 31, 2015, just a few months after he was named the MaxPreps National Freshman of the Year. Lawrence was favored to commit to Georgia at one point, but ultimately committed to Clemson on December 15, 2016. 24 schools offered him, including most of the top programs in the country – including Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, and plenty of others.

COLLEGIATE CAREER

Statistics from Sports Reference.

Lawrence will go down as one of the most successful college quarterbacks of all time, even if his statistics won’t place him anywhere near the all-time greats. He lost a total of two games across three seasons – one was the national championship game in 2019 against LSU and the eventual first overall pick in Joe Burrow, and the other was in this year’s Playoff against Justin Fields and Ohio State.

Kelly Bryant, the Tigers’ incumbent starting quarterback, was coming off a 2017 season in which he led Clemson to a number one overall ranking in the country and an eventual loss to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl when Lawrence first stepped on campus. Despite that, as a true freshman in 2018, Lawrence was successful immediately. He won the starting job from Bryant, threw for 30 touchdowns and just four interceptions, and led the Tigers to a 15-0 record and a National Championship.

In 2019, Lawrence had another phenomenal season, throwing for 3,665 yards and 36 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. He also began to use his legs more, rushing 103 times for 563 yards (5.5 YPC) and nine touchdowns. Clemson was undefeated until the national title game, where they lost against Joe Burrow’s LSU Tigers.

Lawrence had another strong season in 2020, but it was a little more up and down than the previous two seasons. Lawrence tested positive for COVID-19 midseason and missed two games, including a loss to Notre Dame. He still passed for over 3,100 yards and 24 touchdowns in ten games. He was not as efficient as a rusher, but did still punch in eight touchdowns on the ground.

One of the encouraging things about Lawrence’s career is his progression from year to year. He increased his completion percentage, QB rating, and adjusted yards per attempt each season. He became more aggressive downfield while not sacrificing accuracy, and he also began to use his legs more to threaten defenses in multiple ways.

ATHLETIC PROFILE

Image from ESPN.

Lawrence is incredibly athletic for a player of his stature. Listed at 6’6”, 220 pounds on Clemson’s roster, he ran a 4.78-second 40 yard dash at The Opening in 2017. He’s almost certainly faster than that after three years in a collegiate strength and conditioning program.

What can’t Trevor Lawrence do?

pic.twitter.com/maHMY6V9F5

— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 19, 2020

Lawrence doesn’t get enough credit for how athletic he is. Everybody knows about the arm talent, but he has Josh Allen-level mobility to go along with his prowess as a passer.

Trevor Lawrence: Highest rushing grade among returning QBs💨pic.twitter.com/cyudn8bTS0

— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 5, 2020

He doesn’t have an arm like Allen, and he’s not as fast as Lamar Jackson, but Lawrence is an outstanding blend of every tool that teams covet in an elite quarterback prospect.

STRENGTHS

• Size
• Arm strength and arm talent
• Accuracy to all levels of the field
• Quick release
• Timing, anticipation, and mental processing; ability to work through progressions
• Willingness to stand in face of pressure in the pocket and take hits while throwing downfield
• Ability to throw off-platform and create outside of structure
• Experience in big games and high-leverage situations
• Athleticism and mobility; is an asset as a rusher on zone reads and near the goal line
• Tremendous toughness
• Mentally pro-ready and has experience setting protections

WEAKNESSES

• Ball placement can occasionally be better to maximize RAC
• Will sometimes try to force throws into tight windows downfield
• Completion percentage is propped up by a lot of screen passes and throws to players schemed wide open
• Tends to miss high when he misses receivers, which can lead to tipped passes and interceptions

DRAFT VALUE

Lawrence is the odds-on favorite to be the first overall pick in the NFL Draft by the Jacksonville Jaguars. There have been some rumors that Urban Meyer may become the next head coach of the Jaguars, and that has led some to hypothesize that his Ohio State connections could lead Jacksonville to favor Justin Fields. I view that as incredibly unlikely. Regardless, Lawrence’s floor as a draft prospect is the second overall pick.

DYNASTY OUTLOOK

Trevor Lawrence is one of the most hyped and anxiously awaited quarterback prospects in the last 25 years. For as often as the term generational gets thrown around, the fact that enough people subscribe to this line of thinking means his dynasty value isn’t just insulated, it’s through the roof already.

Lawrence is the QB1 in DLF’s devy rankings, the QB2 in our Cornerstone rankings (sandwiched between Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow, and ahead of Justin Herbert), and the QB1 in Devy ADP in both 1QB and Superflex mock drafts.

He’s likely going to be a top-six quarterback in dynasty ADP as soon as February, when MFL will first insert rookies into their database. Even if he isn’t, he’ll be a mid-range QB1 immediately, and he’ll have insulated value for at least two years. His name value can likely draw a massive return in trades even before he plays a down in the NFL.

Lawrence is almost unquestionably the rookie 1.01 in superflex leagues, and he will probably sneak into the back half of the first round of 1QB rookie drafts as well. Unless he outright flops, he’ll be a QB1 for ten or more years, and the combination of fantasy points and trade value make him a worthwhile selection in all formats.

2021 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson