Twitter Observations: Week Two
After two weeks of the NFL season, there’s not much about this season that looks any different than another. Sure, there are no fans in the stands and the injuries are piling up more than usual but every game has gone off without a hitch, there are stats to process and even dynasty trades happening. And with that, below are a few of the tweets that should stand out to dynasty players this week.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
When Diggs Flies
Stefon Diggs stats:
Rec: 16
Yards: 239
1Ds: 10
TDs: 1
Contested Rec: 3
Broken tackles: 3All Vikings WRs combined stats:
Rec: 18
Yards: 291
1Ds: 11
TDs: 2
Contested Rec: 1
Broken tackles: 1— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) September 23, 2020
At first glance, Stefon Diggs’ move to Buffalo this off-season appeared to be a downgrade for his dynasty prospects. He was leaving the friendly confines of Minnesota – where he totaled back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons – to Buffalo whose top receiver each season averaged just 714 yards under the Sean McDermott-era. But it appears we all jumped the gun as Diggs has balled out in his first two games as a Bill, averaging 11 targets and over 100 yards – and has been a bona fide WR1.
While it’s doubtful the Bills keep averaging 40 pass attempts per game, it’s clear Diggs will remain relevant. He’s seeing 38% more targets than the next closest Bills receiver and appears to be in prime physical condition if the tweet above is any indication.
Dynasty Impact: Before any talk of a trade, Diggs was viewed as a low-end WR1 in dynasty startups. Since the trade, which included the influx of rookie receivers, Diggs saw his ADP drop significantly not just to WR2 territory but as a WR3.
But those who bet on talent over situation won out as Diggs hasn’t lost a step in his new home. He, and the quarterback throwing him the ball – Josh Allen – are both young enough that this conducive fantasy situation is in place for years to come. If any Diggs owner in your league still values him as anything other than a WR1, I would try to acquire him.
Thomas Keepers
Drew Brees has averaged 4.82 air yards on his passes so far this season.
That's his lowest through 2 games as a member of the Saints, and it's the lowest by any QB through 2 games since Brett Favre in 2009. pic.twitter.com/ghtlGu44eG
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 22, 2020
This tweet isn’t meant as a suggestion that you should trade Drew Brees. If you haven’t done that by now, that ship has long since sailed. No this is for all the Michael Thomas owners who have been on that gravy train since Thomas entered the league four years ago. Viewed as a WR1 since his sophomore season and as THE WR1 entering this season, 2020 represents the first time Thomas owners must worry about what to do with Thomas’ spot in their starting lineup. Couple the decline of Brees mentioned above with the ankle injury Thomas sustained in week one and suddenly Thomas’ standing as the top dynasty receiver looks shaky.
Dynasty Impact: It may not be the best time to float a Michael Thomas trade, but it would be when he returns from his injury. Until the Saints find a replacement for Brees who can accurately throw it more than five yards down the field, Thomas’ ceiling will be limited. There’s no doubt he’ll still see a ton of targets, but most would be of the short-to-intermediate variety, limiting any big-play potential. Thomas’ dynasty value, according to our DLF Trade Analyzer, is one of the highest of any player. And while you probably shouldn’t expect full value for him now that Brees is being exposed, holding out for multiple rookie first-round draft picks isn’t unreasonable. I would at least entertain it so you can be ahead of the curve.
Alternative Edelman
https://twitter.com/DavisMattek/status/1307881899956805633?s=20
If you did a double-take after reading this tweet, you weren’t alone. In a career that has spanned more than a decade and 130-plus regular-season games, week two of the 2020 season ended up being Edelman’s best yardage total ever (179). The fact it came in Cam Newton’s second game as the Patriot quarterback made it even juicer and certainly a good sign for Edelman’s production going forward.
And it’s not like week two was an outlier. He led the team in targets in week one with seven before the offense played keep away most of the game after getting ahead of Miami early. So, while the New England offense may have fundamentally changed after switching quarterbacks, it appears Edelman still owns the title of Patriots receiver to own in fantasy leagues.
Dynasty Impact: It’s completely fair that Edelman owners were dropping him like a hot potato in the off-season. He just lost the only quarterback he ever played with and was looking at a season of catching passes from either Brian Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham, two players who don’t exactly inspire confidence. That changed when Newton signed as it breathed new life into Edelman’s fantasy and dynasty prospects. In fact, you can see a very slight uptick in his ADP in the chart below starting in July, a feat which is almost unheard of for a 34-year old receiver.
According to our DLF Trade Analyzer, it would cost about a 2021 second-round rookie pick to acquire Edelman. If you’re a team that’s built to win-now, Edelman would be a fine pickup.
Men of Steel
Steelers target leaders through two games:
5. James Conner – 6
4. Eric Ebron – 7
3. James Washington – 8
2. JuJu Smith-Schuster – 14
1. Diontae Johnson – 23— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 20, 2020
Don’t look now but we could have yet another young Steeler receiver supplanting a veteran. Two seasons ago, it was JuJu Smith-Schuster who made the Steelers feel comfortable enough to move on from All-Pro Antonio Brown. And while 2019 was an unmitigated disaster for Smith-Schuster as he struggled to recover from injury, it did allow third-round rookie Diontae Johnson to see a ton of action he might not have otherwise. Johnson managed to turn 92 targets (primarily from the likes of Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges) into 59 receptions, 680 yards, and five touchdowns.
Fast forward to 2020 where both are healthy and have the benefit of a competent quarterback again (thank you Ben Roethlisberger) and we are getting a glimpse of where these two stand in the eyes of the Steelers.
Dynasty Impact: Smith-Schuster can no longer use injuries as the reason why he’s clearly behind Johnson in the pecking order. His 14 targets through two games are just one more than Johnson had in just week two! Pretty soon, their dynasty ADPs should start merging much more than they are now.
Currently, Johnson is valued as a WR3/4. If he still is in your dynasty league, you should snap him up before it’s too late. As for JuJu, it’s understandable if you’d like to cash in on his value as it might never go higher.
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