Twitter Observations: The Return of Superman
It’s rare to get a fantasy or dynasty bomb in the middle of the summer but that’s exactly what we got after Cam Newton signed with the Patriots. It has far-reaching implications for him (see below) and other Patriots but there were other interesting Twitter tidbits this week that could have just as big of an impact on your dynasty teams.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Don’t Call it a Cam-Back
Farewell Carolina, Hello New England | NEW VLOG OUT NOW on my @YouTube Channel or click the link below for full video | I explain how I feel for my FANS #1ØVĒ🤟🏾https://t.co/XzxUeBkSWw pic.twitter.com/xG0leVCaCh
— Cameron 1 Newton (@CameronNewton) June 30, 2020
Finally. Cam Newton, who was on the free-agent market longer than any 31-year old former MVP should be, finally signed. He ends up in New England to compete with perpetual backup Brian Hoyer and untested second-year quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
There are legitimate injury concerns that come with Newton especially since his legs are some of his biggest weapons and he was getting pretty beat up in recent years. But he was assuaging those fears by improving the passing part of his game, finishing the 2018 season with a career-high completion percentage of 67.9, nearly 10% higher than his previous season-high. If he can build on that, now that he’s healthy, Newton could provide a huge ROI for dynasty owners.
Dynasty Impact: Grabbing Newton off the scrap heap in dynasty startups is a thing of the past as he’s sure to be drafted as a typical starting quarterback and even higher in superflex leagues. Up until this point, his ADP was just ridiculous:
That’s sure to shoot up while his new teammate, Stidham, may have seen his value peak. It’s still early but if Newton flashes the Newton of the past, and you can acquire him for the price of a high-end QB2, you should do it.
Ryan King
In the last 2 seasons, no one has had more games of 300+ passing yards than Matt Ryan.
In 2019, among QBs with 500+ pass attempts, Ryan had the 2nd lowest Bad Pass % w/ 16.4.
He was tied for 3rd in TD passes on a per game basis.
9th QB off the board = VALUE#FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/jCoD8Ne6fo
— Michael Hauff (@TheFFRealist) June 25, 2020
There are a handful of players who, whether it’s in fantasy or real-life, observers don’t give nearly enough credit. I include Mike Evans as a good example who, despite totaling the seventh-most receiving yards through a player’s first six seasons in history, is still battling Chris Godwin for the title of top Tampa receiver. Matt Ryan is the Mike Evans of quarterbacks – they’ve both been outstanding yet still don’t get the appropriate respect. Care to guess who has the second-most passing yards since 2010? Ryan. Fifth-most touchdowns? Ryan. And yet, he still isn’t being drafted as a starting dynasty quarterback in 1QB leagues.
Dynasty Impact: If it wasn’t clear by now, I’m a Matt Ryan stan and you should be too! Over the last decade, Ryan has not only been healthy but failed to be a fantasy QB1 in just three seasons. In the other seven, he finished as the eighth-highest scoring quarterback or better. His ADP has gradually gotten lower due to age, which is fair, but when you consider the age of other quarterbacks still playing at a high level, Ryan should be good for a few more seasons.
If your dynasty team is weak at the position, Ryan should be a cheap but effective, option and cost you nothing more than a mid-round rookie pick.
Raheem Court
Mostert's stat line with 12+ touches in a gm
17 touches – 151 yds
12 touches – 79 yds
21 touches – 154 yds
12 touches – 109 yds
15 touches – 59 yds
12 touches – 73 yds
12 touches – 58 yds
31 touches – 226 yds
13 touches – 60 ydsIf he just gets 200 touches, he will be a MONSTER
— Michelle Magdziuk (@BallBlastEm) June 28, 2020
In non-QB dynasty tweets this week, we have the ongoing, peculiar case of Raheem Mostert. The 49ers running back was barely on the dynasty radar as late as a year ago but being a hot hand on a hot team can do wonders for your dynasty value.
Mostert notched double-digit carries just twice through 12 weeks last season but turned it on from week 13 on, never having less than ten carries for the rest of the regular and postseason. In that eight-game span, he totaled 715 yards on the ground and scored 11 times. It’d be great if he could run the ball more than ten times a game in every game but that’s probably a little much to ask. For now, Mostert dynasty owners will be happy if he just replicates last year’s numbers.
Dynasty Impact: Including the starter on one of the more run-heavy teams in the league as an asset on your dynasty team is a good position to be in. On the season, Mostert finished as a top-20 fantasy back and should have no problem doing that again. As for what it would take to acquire him, our DLF Trade Analyzer projects it would take an early second-round rookie pick to do. Based on the strength of this rookie draft, I wouldn’t do that as Mostert, while not being on the field a lot, is still ancient at 28. He’s also on an offense that, while run-heavy, is not based on a workhorse. Meanwhile, there are a few receivers in the early second round of rookie drafts who might produce more long-term value. Mostert is a hold.
Yield Irv
Irv Smith & TJ Hockenson each produced 1 TE1 game & 6 TE2 games during their rookie seasons.
Hockenson’s dynasty ADP is 93 while Smith’s is 127.
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) June 24, 2020
Taken in the second round of last year’s NFL Draft, Irv Smith Jr was slightly overlooked in favor of first-round tight ends TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant. But even playing behind Vikings veteran Kyle Rudolph, Smith still managed more than 300 receiving yards and a couple of scores and scored just as many fantasy points as Hockenson. But while the two first-round tight ends are both top-seven tight ends in our DLF rankings, Smith is outside the top ten.
Dynasty Impact: 2020 is a weak tight end class so if you’re looking for an upgrade for your dynasty team, the draft isn’t it. Instead, you could target Smith while giving up just a little more than you would for a rookie. He’s actually younger than most of the rookie tight ends this year and would cost you a mid-to-late second-round rookie pick. I’d rather pay more for a clearly ascending player like Smith over the top rookies at the position this year who would cost you a third-round. Smith already got his rookie season struggles out of the way while also on track to see more targets with the departure of former Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs.
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