Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: KJ Hamler, WR DEN

Eric Hardter Posted On May 30, 2020

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: KJ Hamler

Position: Wide receiver

Pro Team: Denver Broncos

College Team: Penn State University Nittany Lions

Draft Status: Second round, 46th overall

Video Highlights

Combine Review

Height: 5’9”
Weight: 178 pounds
Arms: 30 3/4″
Hands: 9 3/8″
40-yard dash: N/A
Bench press: 15 reps
Three-cone: N/A
Vertical jump: N/A
Broad jump: N/A

Strengths

It was disappointing that an injured hamstring precluded Hamler’s ability to run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine (with Penn State’s Pro Day subsequently canceled due to COVID-19 concerns), as he may have been the only receiver in the same zip code as Oakland’s Henry Ruggs. However, much like Ruggs, Hamler isn’t going to get caught from behind, and it was reported he was running in the 4.2 range when timed in college. Speed cannot be taught, and there will be few faster in the NFL.
Similarly, though Hamler’s agility wasn’t tested, a moniker of “the human joystick” doesn’t happen by accident. Hamler possesses running back-like ability in the open field, and when he’s not running right by defenders, he has shown the ability to juke them out of their cleats.
In large part due to the above, Hamler is one of the preeminent deep threats in this year’s class. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he received elite marks in yards per route run, and deep grade. This is due in large part to his ability to separate, as opposed to his ability to make contested catches (more on that below). A single reception from Hamler could conceivably provide you with flex-level scoring for the week.
Despite walking into a crowded receiving room, Hamler has no problem functioning as an offense’s alpha-dog. In 2018, he more than doubled every other Nittany Lion in receiving yardage, and had 16 more receptions than the next closest player. In 2019, he led the team in receptions, yards (nearly 400 more than the next closest player) and touchdowns. He has also shown the ability to shine on the big stage, including against Appalachian State (a near “Michigan” for PSU; 3-67-1), #4 Ohio State (4-138-1), #18 Iowa (5-96-0), #17 Iowa (2019 version; 7-61-1), #16 Michigan (6-108-2), and #17 Minnesota (7-119-0).
For leagues that reward return yardage, Hamler returned a total of 81 kickoffs and punts over two years. For the former, he held a collegiate average of 22.3 yards (44 returns for 983 yards), and for the latter, he held an average of 6.0 yards (37 returns for 221 yards). Though he did not turn any of these returns into scores (at least, none that didn’t come back due to penalty), his long kickoff return was 67 yards.

Weaknesses

Hamler is a speed freak, but he will never be confused with Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson due to his diminutive stature. This can result in him getting rerouted at the line of scrimmage, mitigated as a blocker in the run game, and failing to win the contested catch battle. To that last point, Hamler received a sub-average score in PFF’s contested catch grades.
Despite having slightly above average-sized hands, Hamler was a drop machine in college. Highlighting this potential concern, he dropped nearly 17% of his intended targets over two years. While this remains a small sample size, he’s also notoriously (anecdotally) shown a pair of alligator arms at times.
Given the weaknesses noted above, it’s not surprising that Hamler spent the majority of time in the slot at Penn State. While this is not inherently a bad thing, per se, it would be easy to see him forced off the field in 2WR sets.
Hamler has never been utilized as a high-volume receiver. While Penn State did not have the most prolific passing offenses in 2018 and 2019, Hamler only has three career games with six or more receptions. If this continues in the NFL, he will have to continue to live off of chunk plays.

Opportunities

Ironically, Hamler’s best opportunity for a rookie-year contribution, return-game usage, is effectively mitigated by the mile-high atmosphere in Denver. Not surprisingly, only five teams had fewer kickoff return attempts than the Broncos in 2019. Should he win the return job, Hamler may only be looking at 1-2 kickoff returns per game.

When the offense is on the field, Hamler is best projected as a slot receiver, and at the least should be able to get on the field in 4WR sets. Given the loaded depth chart, however, it is hard to see more than a small handful of targets per game (more on this below).

Quarterback Drew Lock was not particularly effective, albeit in a small sample size, at throwing the deep ball in his five starts as a rookie. However, per PFF, Lock was a terrific downfield passer in college, and also excelled at generating positive results out of “broken” plays. Combined with Hamler’s speed and ability to separate, it’s easy to see a good fit between quarterback and receiver, though it has to be noted that Lock remains unproven at the NFL level.

Threats

Where to start? The Broncos are loaded with early-round talent at the pass-catching positions, including fellow rookie Jerry Jeudy who was selected in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. As a prolific college receiver, former Biletnikoff Award winner, and more complete route runner than Hamler, it’s easy to see Jeudy forcing his way on the field at one of the outside receiver positions.

Courtland Sutton, a former second-round receiver, enters his third season after polishing off a 1,100-yard effort in 2019. As a sophomore, Sutton impressively led the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns, with no other pass catcher in the same stratosphere in any of these statistics. Sutton functioned as a ball hog, sequestering nearly 25% of the team’s targets, after receiving 14.3% of targets as a rookie. Albeit in a small sample size, it should be noted that Sutton received 40 targets across Lock’s eight starts, checking in with a 22-280-2 line.

Noah Fant was the team’s 2019 first-round selection, and put forth a respectable 40-562-3 line, finishing second on the team in yards and touchdowns, and third in receptions. Fant offers great speed at the position, as shown by a 14.1 YPR average, and offers the best size on the team at 6’4”, 249 pounds. A true pass-catching tight end, he could be competing directly with Hamler for targets out of the slot and in-line positions.

Ironically, Hamler’s direct competition for rookie-year targets is another former Nittany Lion in DaeSean Hamilton. Through two years, the former fourth-round pick has flashed, but has only 540 yards to his name. He did finish the 2019 season on a positive note, with two games of 65 yards apiece (with 11 total receptions and one score) with Lock as quarterback.

This is a battle to watch, as Hamler and Hamilton, despite sharing a college and offering similar-sounding last names, present diametrically opposing skill sets. The former, as detailed here, is an undersized burner with jukes for days. The latter is a “big slot” receiver (6’1”, 206 pounds) who lacks speed (4.5-second 40-yard dash) and dynamic, but has velcro hands and shines with route running across the middle of the field. With the big-armed Lock under center, and the Broncos’ newfound commitment to speed players over the past two draft cycles, it would not be surprising to see Hamler eat into Hamilton’s target share as the 2020 season unfolds.

Big former UDFA wide receiver Tim Patrick and 2020 fourth-round tight end Albert Okwuegbunam also warrant brief mention.

Short-Term Expectations

I would anticipate a few splash plays here and there, but Hamler’s best-case rookie scenario likely sees him as the fourth option in the pecking order. He will likely win owners some weeks in best-ball leagues, but you will undoubtedly not feel comfortable starting him, unless your team is decimated by injuries and bye weeks. 40-50 targets seems likely.

Long-Term Expectations

Unfortunately for Hamler, all of his compatriots are nearly as young as he is, and should form a solid nucleus for the Broncos for years to come. A best-case scenario would be Sutton declining to re-sign with Denver, and Hamler forcing his way into 2WR sets. Pragmatically, he will likely need either an injury or change of scenery to blossom into a trustworthy fantasy starter. A high-end scenario would result in a DeSean Jackson-like career. It is more likely he settles into the yearly WR3/4 range.

NFL Player Comparison

Pick your undersized, speedy wide receiver with checkered collegiate production, here! Best comparables for size, skill set, and past production include the afore-mentioned Jackson and Ruggs (though it’s noted Ruggs is a couple of inches taller and ten pounds heavier), and Marquise Brown. Tyreek Hill is often thrown around as a comparable, but he’s a bit thicker than Hamler, and in this writer’s opinion plays with a much higher level of intensity and “my ball” mentality.

Projected Rookie Draft Range

Hamler is currently the 25th player off the board according to DLF’s Rookie ADP, and stands as the 13th receiver overall. Interestingly, he finds himself behind several receivers selected later in the NFL Draft, which likely speaks to owners’ concerns of the “threats” as detailed above. Hamler is the 23rd-ranked rookie per DLF’s rookie rankings, largely aligning with his ADP.

For believers of his talent and owners with an eye to “boom/bust” players, Hamler would make for a smart pickup and represents a trade target in the late second round. Owners who prefer steadier weekly output will likely shy away, though he may still represent a solid price at his current position.

Find me on Twitter @EDH_27 (even though I rarely post anymore)

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.