Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Tua Tagovailoa

Position: Quarterback

Pro Team: Miami Dolphins

College Team: Alabama Crimson Tide

Draft Status: Round one, fifth overall

Video Highlights

Combine Review

• Height: 6’0″
• Weight: 217 lbs
• Arms: 30 1/2″
• Hands: 10″

Tagovailoa did not take part in athletic testing at the combine as he was recovering from a hip injury.

Strengths

Tagovailoa has exceptional mobility in the pocket and is able to set up additional throwing windows for his receivers when on the move. He also has pinpoint accuracy that allows him to both lead his receivers as well as place the ball into tight windows. Throughout his time at Alabama, he has shown these skills.

It is clear that Tagovailoa will be able to command respect from the locker room immediately as he is a natural leader. He has also historically come up big when it matters, for example the 2018 NCAA Championship game against Georgia. He also shows toughness and is not scared to step into oncoming defenders.

All of this together makes Tagovailoa a very highly-rated rookie.

Weaknesses

Tagovailoa occasionally does not put enough strength on some of his throws and that forces his receivers to slow down or stop to be able to make a play on the ball. Additionally, there are times when he seems uncomfortable in the pocket. When he gets erratic in the pocket, he often doesn’t keep his eyes down the field looking for receivers.

We also have to talk about the injuries that have ridden Tagovailoa’s career while in college. Between the hip surgery and the ankle injuries and subsequent surgeries, there is some risk in this pick.

Opportunities

Being drafted fifth overall, he will have leeway, but don’t expect him to start immediately. Doctors are going to want to be sure that there is no potential risk towards his hip after his injury. Ryan Fitzpatrick only has one year left on his deal, so it would make sense for the reins of the offense to be handed over slowly to Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have made clear that they want to go about rebuilding correctly and Tagovailoa is a big part of that plan.

With Miami getting more help on the offensive line and a healthy Preston Williams added to up-and-comer Mike Gesicki and 1,000-yard receiver DeVante Parker, it is clear the Dolphins have an up-and-coming offense.

Threats

The biggest threat to Tagovailoa is clearly his health. With multiple lower-body injuries and the season-ending hip injury, it will be incredibly important for team doctors to ensure his before getting him on the field. Additionally, Ryan Fitzpatrick still being under contract is a clear sign that the whole season might not belong to the rookie.

Short-Term Expectations

If you are selecting Tagovailoa in rookie drafts, you understand the risks. There is a very clear possibility that he doesn’t start at all in his rookie season or only sees the field towards the back half, as is the case with some rookie quarterbacks. He has the ability to be a high-end QB2 if he is able to start and stay healthy for a full season. It would not surprise me if Tagovailoa became a league-winner – in a similar way to Fitzpatrick last year – when he finally has some time to get acclimated to the new offense.

Long-Term Expectations

Long-term is where Tagovailoa is going to make you happy in rookie drafts. He has the ability to be the best quarterback from this draft and has a path to becoming a QB1 for years to come. The Dolphins are finally out from under the Adam Gase experiment and are moving forward with a full rebuild and doing it the correct way. They have built up the trenches on both sides of the ball as well as getting the future quarterback in the draft when his contract will be the cheapest.

NFL Comparison

This comparison might be a stretch, but Tagovailoa reminds me of Drew Brees. He has the arm talent to make every throw on the field and boasts a very high football IQ. He rarely makes poor decisions with the ball and is quick to make adjustments at the line before the snap. One of the best traits that Brees has is his ability to move through his progressions quickly while having a superb pocket presence. These are things that I see in Tagovailoa that make me believe he is ready to take the big step to the NFL.

Projected Range for Rookie Drafts

In superflex leagues, Tagovailoa could be drafted as high as the 1.01 if the teams at the top of the draft fall in love. In most leagues, he is the second QB off of the board. Looking at the Rookie Draft App, There is likely no chance that Tagovailoa is going to be available at the 1.06 in superflex leagues. This means that you will have to make a move into the top five to be able to get him.

But we should also take a look at one-quarterback leagues as well. The chance of Tagovailoa being drafted in the first round of 1QB rookie drafts is near zero percent and that percentage doesn’t go down until the 2.01 where he drops to being 90% available. The data shows us that there is a very slim chance he makes it past the 2.10. If you want him in this format, you will have to spend an early to mid-second-round pick on him.