Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week 11
Hello and welcome back to our target share article heading into week 12. Here we look for patterns and trends in player usage to try and highlight underrated and overlooked players in dynasty and for our start/sit decisions.
As we are still in the bye week season, this can be very useful information – especially as we edge towards the playoffs and we have lost players to injury and underperformance.
So, let’s get to it.
Target Share Leaders Last week
Josh Reynolds, WR LAR
With the loss of Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods last week, the depth chart on the Rams saw some turnover. Cooper Kupp is still the clear leading target despite two disappointing weeks (it should be noted he had a touchdown overturned as well). While it should be expected for other players to get targets when the dominant target leaders are out, we have also seen Reynolds step into the breach before and do well. Not all depth chart players step into a 37% target share in that situation, which again speaks to what Reynolds can do with opportunity that’s different from other depth chart players. If Woods is hindered or out again, Reynolds should be viewed as a top-30 wide receiver.
Taylor Gabriel, WR CHI
Gabriel has also been a productive fantasy player for us before and his spike in target share last week reflects a trend over the last four games where he has not had less than 14% and has averaged 22%. In week 12 the Bears, admittedly a struggling offense, face the ninth-best matchup for wide receivers according to 4for4.com’s adjusted fantasy points allowed, which is currently allowing a 61% target share to the position (league average is 57%). I think Gabriel makes a good spot start this week if you’re in need of a fill-in.
Target Share Changes
Below you can see the players who saw the biggest increase in target share between weeks ten and eleven. I’ve highlighted the players who have risen from a low season-long usage to significance targets last week.
Andy Isabella, WR ARI
Isabella is the most interesting name on this list from a dynasty perspective in my opinion. Christian Kirk has emerged as the leading target on the team and Larry Fitzgerald has stabilized as a top-24 target share player as well. However, no team focuses the wide receiver position as much as the Cardinals and Isabella is a second-round draft pick with a very productive college profile. It would be no surprise if (like Kirk) it took another year for Isabella to be a fantasy asset. However, based on DLF’s own ADP, Isabella has dropped from an ADP of 106 to 130 (a full two-round drop) in value.
Kelvin Harmon, WR WAS
Harmon has suffered a significant dynasty ADP fall, moving from an ADP of 202 to 235 (undrafted) in the most recent DLF data. While it’s even harder to expect much from a Washington receiver drafted in the fifth round (with poor combine numbers and now stuck behind a third-round player who’s seen a dynasty rise), I think he is worth an add if he’s available. Terry McLaurin is now being drafted with an ADP of 61, despite struggling to produce consistently. While that isn’t a problem for McLaurin’s long-term value (he’s a rookie), it does open up the potential that Harmon could steal a role. McLaurin dropped to a 13% target share last week while Harmon rose to a 20% share. What McLaurin has done in his rookie year is impressive, and I’m not writing him off now. However, I do think Harmon is also a good add in dynasty.
Mike Thomas, WR LAR
I’m more interested in Josh Reynolds, but it’s good to see the “other” Mike Thomas getting some run in the NFL.
Tim Patrick, WR DEN
I was very interested in Patrick this off-season as a Courtland Sutton hedge based on their usage last year. Now Sutton is one of the number one dynasty players to acquire. However, like many useful players, Patrick’s name always comes up when there is space underneath the more storied starters. He’s a 25-year-old UDFA who is good at football. It may not have much long-term value but it’s a name I think we should know in dynasty. I’d add him over deeper bench stashes right now.
Johnny Holton, WR PIT
First, they lost their quarterback and now they seem to have misplaced all of their wide receivers in the concussion protocol. In the meantime, Johnny Holton was the main target to step into the breach of “vacated targets”. But as anyone who has read my work before will probably know, I don’t think that’s how targets work. It’s more about what a player can do with that space that matters. The fact Holton was the one to step up the most, but only for a 17% target share, is more informative of how disappointing James Washington has been in the NFL and how unlikely I am to invest (in dynasty) in anyone outside of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson in Pittsburgh.
Dallas Goedert Trend
Targets are weird. But also useful. I think it was worth noting that not only has Goedert jumped ahead of schedule and become a fantasy useful player before a Zach Ertz trade, it’s also likely to continue.
As usual, the breakout has happened without the need for other good players to lose their roles. Ertz’s target share being steady even with Goedert’s rise and they’ve also both been fine with both Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor on the field (see weeks six-ten below).
This usage has been rising and looks sustainable. It’s not the touchdown variance show of the Tampa Bay tight end depth chart, for example.
Last Week’s Trend
Before I get out of here, I want to remind you that last week I highlighted Jacob Hollister as an add with starting potential.
Coming off their bye week, the Seahawks usage is less certain but there’s also a chance that means some may forget his rise in usage recently.
Okay, folks, that’s about it for now. As usually there’s is too much to process in one article so I’m linking all of the data I’ve compiled and used from 4for4.com. I recommend taking a glance through it when you can to look for other patterns and trends. Click here to read all the data.
Thanks for checking this out, I’ll see you next week.
Peter Howard
@pahwdy
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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