Weekly Positional Rankings: Week Three

This year, we’re adding something completely new to DLF: Weekly Rankings.

In this series, I’ll give you my top 30 quarterbacks, 60 running backs, 60 wide receivers, and 30 tight ends each week to help you with your start/sit decisions in your leagues. To generate this list each and every week, I examine team trends, Vegas over/unders, implied points, pace of play, among various other factors to build a projection for each player and subsequently adjust rankings for upside and more detailed matchup specifics.

Among the rankings, there will surely be some that surprise you or that you may disagree with. At the end of each position section, I’ll give you my thoughts on some players who perhaps are ranked higher/lower than you might expect and insights as to why they are a good/bad play this week. Ultimately, these rankings should help your start/sit dilemmas and ensure you have the requisite resources to make an informed decision.

Without further ado, let’s dive into Week Three’s positional rankings!

Quarterbacks

Start ‘em: Jameis Winston, QB TB

Many had high hopes for Winston coming into 2019. With a bevy of weapons at his disposal and a quarterback-friendly head coach, Winston has as much passing upside as any quarterback in the league. Week three is the perfect time for that upside to come to fruition. The Buccaneers are at home against a Giants team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2019. Specifically, the Giants have been terrible defending against wide receivers, which is the strongest unit of this Tampa Bay offense. While Winston has been a middling QB2/3 for fantasy owners thus far, he’s a strong start this week and has legitimate weekly QB1 upside.

Sit ‘em: Jared Goff, QB LAR

It’s been a strange start to the season for Jared Goff. Despite the Rams scoring 57 points in two weeks, Goff has only thrown two touchdowns and hasn’t looked particularly sharp on the field. Traveling to Cleveland in week three, Goff has a tougher matchup than it appears on the surface. The Browns got blown out in week one by the Titans, but it wasn’t necessarily because of their pass defense. Excluding a 75-yard screen pass, the Browns have allowed just 7.73 yards per attempt on the season. Additionally, the Browns rank as the best defense this season in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, which is the strength of the LA Rams passing game. Overall, Goff looks to have a low floor this week. While the upside of three touchdowns is there every week, it looks less likely in week three. I’d bench him for safer options.

If you’re desperate: Mitchell Trubisky, QB CHI

Trubisky hasn’t been good this season. That’s cut and dry. He currently ranks as the QB29 in fantasy football through two weeks. Brighter days might be on the horizon for the third-year quarterback, and that horizon might be as soon as week three. The Bears travel to Washington on Monday night this week. While facing Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott in weeks one and two, Washington has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks thus far in 2019. Trubisky does not project to do the same as those quarterbacks this week, but the upside in the matchup is undeniable. The Bears offense should be able to get back on track this week in an easier matchup, and it would not be that surprising to see Trubisky near the top of quarterbacks in week three. He’s a high-upside low-floor play, perfect for a desperation option.

Running Backs

Start ‘em: David Montgomery, RB CHI

While the Chicago Bears edged out their first win of the season last week, it wasn’t what many would consider to be a “get right” game. This week, however, might be just that. The Bears travel to Washington this week as one of only four road favorites in week three. This season, the Washington Redskins have allowed 53 rush attempts to opposing running backs, which is tied for fourth-most in the NFL. David Montgomery finally took the reigns in week two with 18 carries and will continue to do so in week three. My projections have Montgomery totaling 16.5 touches for 82 total yards and a touchdown, good for mid-RB2 numbers with upside for more.

Sit ‘em: Mark Ingram, RB BAL

Ingram is the clear lead back in one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL through two weeks. There’s a lot to like about his outlook the rest of the season. However, week three’s projected shootout at Kansas City leaves Ingram as just an upside RB3 on the week. Kansas City thus far in 2019 has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, due in large part to their own offensive firepower. Lamar Jackson is going to be asked to do a lot both through the air and with his legs this week. That would be a good thing from a PPR standpoint for Ingram, but the Ravens have the lowest target share to running backs through week two thus far at just under 7%. If this game turns into a shootout, Ingram’s fantasy day will solely rely on touchdowns. He’s a high variance play in week three. If you need more reliable options, look elsewhere.

If you’re desperate: Tony Pollard, RB DAL

A massive hype candidate during Ezekiel Elliot’s absence during training camp, Pollard has shown well during the first two weeks of his rookie season. His day on Sunday could have been even better had his touchdown not been called back due to a holding penalty. The Memphis product has been able to carve out a solid five-eight touches a week thus far. In week three, Dallas faces the Miami Dolphins. There isn’t much more to say about the matchup that you don’t already know. Pollard, though, is a good upside play in the (likely) scenario the Cowboys get out to a big lead early and give Pollard more work in the second half of the game. Against the team that has allowed by far the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, Pollard has multiple touchdown upside but an admittedly low floor. He’s a good desperation play this week.

Wide Receivers

Start ‘em: Marvin Jones, WR DET

Last week, Calvin Ridley was the suggested start of the week against a porous Eagles secondary. This week, we’re going right back to the same matchup. Ridley had a big week in week in large part due to the deep ball, an area the Eagles are notably week against. His day could have been even bigger if Matt Ryan was able to connect on some more deep open routes to his receivers. In 2019, the Eagles have allowed an average depth of target (aDoT) of 12.55 to wide receivers, which plays right into Jones’ skill set as a deep threat. On the season, Jones is averaging an aDoT of 14.3. While Jones has gotten off to a relatively slow start, this is the game for a long touchdown to kickstart his 2019 campaign.

Sit ‘em: Jets WRs

The Jets have the lowest implied team total this week at a mere 10.75 points. Against a formidable Patriots defense that’s among the best in the league against wide receivers, there are no positives to look at for either Robby Anderson nor Jamison Crowder. There’s always the chance Anderson breaks off a big play, so of the two, he’s the one I’d lean towards if I had to choose one. Overall, though, look to avoid these two starting wide receivers for Luke Falk and the New York Jets.

If you’re desperate: AJ Brown, WR TEN

Brown has been a pleasant surprise thus far in his rookie season, as many thought it’d be a transition year behind Corey Davis for the Ole Miss product. The rookie, though, has matched or bettered Davis’s target numbers in both weeks to start the season. While Jaguars corner Jalen Ramsey is in the midst of trade demands, he will still be shadowing Davis for much of Thursday night’s game. This will leave other Jaguars corners to defend against Brown. As we’ve seen this year, the other Jaguars corners can be beaten. While Ramsey held Tyreek Hill and DeAndre Hopkins in check, Sammy Watkins and Will Fuller had large opportunities, with Watkins delivering big. Fuller, though, still had 132 air yards on the day. Ultimately, though, Brown is an upside play as a WR5 that could get a lot of targets with Davis having the much tougher matchup.

Tight Ends

Start ‘em: Greg Olsen, TE CAR

It’s usually a tricky proposition to chase last week’s points, but in the case of Olsen, he looks primed for another big game. Arizona has allowed two huge games to tight end in the first two weeks, and not to guys like Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz. They’re allowed TJ Hockenson and Mark Andrews to post 25.1 and 25.2 points, respectively, in the first two weeks of 2019. Olsen himself is coming off a big 110-yard game from week two. Kyle Allen might start for the Panthers on Sunday, but in week 17 last season, TE Ian Thomas posted over 60 yards and a touchdown with Allen under center. The stars are aligning for Olsen to have a solid TE1 performance.

If you’re desperate: Jason Witten, TE DAL

When in doubt, pick the player going up against the Miami Dolphins. In all seriousness, Witten has a chance to be a legitimate option in the Cowboys offense this week with Michael Gallup sidelined for a few weeks. Devin Smith likely sees the biggest boost from Gallup’s absence, but Witten is likely to see an extra 5-10% of target share as well. Witten’s touchdown potential is very high in week three, and if that hits, he’s got a great chance at putting up TE1 numbers. Blake Jarwin looms as someone who could steal targets, which lowers Witten’s floor, but the veteran TE is a solid upside play nonetheless this week.

That concludes this week’s rankings article! As this series is released on Thursdays, be sure to follow any lingering injuries and changing injury status updates for players as Sunday approaches. If you’re wondering about a player I didn’t dive into detail about, feel free to reach out to me @FFzinger on Twitter. Best of luck this week, and I’ll be back next week to give Week Four’s positional rankings.

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Michael Zingone

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