2019 Summer Sleeper: Atlanta Falcons
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
The Atlanta Falcons offense is one of the most top-heavy in the NFL. With Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu, and Austin Hooper vacuuming up 73.5% of the targets in 2018, there aren’t a lot of extras to go around in the passing game. This is without factoring in a healthy Devonta Freeman who missed all but two games in 2018 and has averaged more than 4.5 targets per game over the last four seasons.
Because of the logjam in the passing game, we’ll turn to a deep sleeper at the running back position.
Qadree Ollison, RB ATL
Category: Deep Sleeper
Ollison was selected with the 14th pick of the fifth round in the 2019 NFL Draft and brings some much-needed size and power to the Atlanta backfield. His 6’1 228-pound frame brings something to the table that the 5’8 206-pound Freeman and the 5’9 195-pound Ito Smith do not. He should immediately contribute as a goal-line and short-yardage threat but the exciting part for dynasty owners is his upside if the oft-injured Freeman misses time; which he has done in each of the last two seasons.
It certainly depends on how Dirk Koetter incorporates his own scheme elements into the offenses run in Atlanta over the last few seasons, but there’s a chance that even without an injury Freeman, Ollison could have fantasy value in 2019. He could play a similar role as the departed Tevin Coleman did as the 1b in the offense rather than just the backup. Because of the lackluster play of Ito Smith in 2018 and his similarities to Freeman, both in size and playstyle, it seems to me that Ollison is the better complementary piece to the starter.
Ollison isn’t the athlete Coleman is but he offers more in the power game and can make his own space with physicality as shown on this 97-yard touchdown run against Virginia Tech.
It’s clear from watching Ollison’s film that he is an intelligent running back. He is capable as a power/gap runner, but he shines on zone plays. He quickly deciphers the puzzle at the line, identifies the correct crease, and attacks it without hesitation. His 4.58 speed bears out on tape. Speed isn’t an asset until he builds up momentum, at which point he is extremely difficult to bring down without being fully wrapped up by defenders. If not wrapped up he displays above-average contact balance, working through collisions with power, well-placed stiff-arms and, and spin moves.
You won’t have to worry about ball security with Ollison either. He fumbled just twice in 580 career touches at Pitt. Finally, pass protection is also a strength. Atlanta bolstered their offensive line in the 2019 NFL Draft with two first-round picks, but having a back like Ollison who is skilled at diagnosing blitzes and attacks defenders with low pad level will be a boon to keeping Matt Ryan on his feet, which benefits the passing game.
Draft Price
It’s tough to want to pay up for a backup running back with fifth-round draft capital, but luckily you won’t have to. As of this writing, In July MFL rookie drafts Ollison is on average going at pick 51, just outside the fourth round. In July startup drafts he is being selected as RB82 at pick 252 overall. Conversely, Ito Smith is nearly twice as expensive in startups at RB47 and 136 overall.
With Ollison as the better complement to Freeman and likely having the higher upside in the event of a Freeman injury, it seems clear that he should be the target over Smith.
Trade value
Has your rookie draft already come and gone with you missing out? That’s ok. He is being sold for extremely reasonable prices as well. On June 28th, he was traded for a 2020 seventh-round pick. In all honesty, if you can get him for even a future fourth or fifth-round pick you are still doing well on that deal. If you need ideas for what to offer another team for Ollison you can head over the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer tool for suggestions. Current suggestions are players like Gerald Everett, Mohammed Sanu, and Nick Foles.
It’s certainly no guarantee that Ollison is a contributor for your fantasy team in 2019 and with the 2020 class looming it’s possible the Falcons won’t see him as a future starter. At his rock-bottom price though it seems like a no-brainer to take a shot on him as a player that in the event of an injury to Freeman could not only see production in his rookie season, but could also see a value spike by the end of the 2019 and present a nice sell for profit opportunity at some point in the near future.
Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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