How Should You Approach Damien Williams in Dynasty Leagues?
Let’s assume you’re in the middle of the third round of your startup dynasty league and you are contemplating a plethora of running backs. I will represent an imaginary dynasty salesman who is going to present you some options of which to choose from. Which of these options sound the most appealing to you?
Player One:Â Here I have a 24-year-old third-year player. He is certainly going to carry the load for his team next season and beyond. This 2017 first-round pick already has a 1,000-yard season under his belt, and worked harder this off-season than ever before to join the elite status of running backs.
Player Two: This 22-year-old has a career 5.4 yards per carry, and has a 7:2 rush to reception ratio, which makes him a competent three-down back. His team traded up to get him in the NFL draft last year, and he rewarded them by being their first 100-yard rusher in five seasons, which at the time was the longest drought in the NFL.
Player Three: This 21-year-old is the team’s first-round pick and sole ball-carrier heading into the season. He’s expected to carry the load on the ground and accumulate multiple passes out of the backfield, as the team is heavily invested in his future for the next four seasons.
Player Four: This is a 27-year-old undrafted journeyman. He entered last season as a backup for the fifth year in a row. He’s never rushed for more than 256 yards, and has only 733 rushing yards total for his career. He was suspended twice in college and kicked off his team for violating team policy. When he was finally given the starting job in 2017, he separated his shoulder so bad that it required season-ending surgery. His backup currently gets paid more money than he does.
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Now that you’ve been presented with some information, which of these options sound appealing to you? Conversely, which of these options sound unappealing? Here are the hidden names of the players above:
- Player one: Leonard Fournette, RB JAC
- Player two: Kerryon Johnson, RB DET
- Player three: Josh Jacobs, RB OAK
- Player four: Damien Williams, RB KC
The current ADP for Damien Williams for all dynasty leagues in MFL is 32, putting him in the middle of the third round on average. All other players mentioned above are being drafted later than 32. Why is this the case? I assume recency bias.
The Oklahoma Sooners suspended Williams twice and dismissed him from the team for violating team policy in 2013, amidst a season in which the #6 Sooners would go on to win the Sugar Bowl vs #3 Alabama, so it’s easy to say that he wasn’t missed.
Williams went on to be an undrafted running back in the 2014 NFL draft. He joined a Dolphins team that already has a starter in Lamar Miller, so he shared backup duties with 27-year-old Daniel Thomas.
The following season the Dolphins drafted Jay Ajayi, who quickly supplanted Williams as the primary backup to Miller. Williams found himself more useful as a special teams player than a running back for the next three seasons, as he shared or lost carries to such players as Kenyan Drake, Arian Foster, and Isaiah Pead.
In his four years as a Dolphin, Williams rushed for a total of 477 yards on 133 carries. That is just a 3.6 yard per attempt average, which is far below average for a running back. Stretching all the way from 2014-2017, the average YPC for any starting running back in Miami was between 4.5 and 5.1. It’s not like the Dolphins didn’t possess the tools to help Williams succeed.
Williams became the starter in Miami during his final year as a Dolphin in 2017. He started just four games before a shoulder dislocation ended his season, requiring surgery and putting him on IR. During his four games, he carried the ball only 34 times for 149 yards, a 4.38 average which technically would be the worst starting average during his tenure on the team.
Williams signed a one-year deal with the Chiefs to backup Kareem Hunt. The signing was a bargain for the Chiefs, as Hunt fell into legal troubles, forcing Williams into the starting role.
Williams started the final three games of the regular season, gaining 256 yards on 50 carries and four touchdowns, all career highs. His career highlight came against Indianapolis where he carried the ball 25 times for 129 yards and a touchdown. 74 of those yards, however, came in the game’s final quarter when the Chiefs had already secured the victory.
His final game with the Chiefs was a pitiful ten-carry, 30-yard effort against the Patriots, who are known for shutting down the best offensive players on the opposing team. I don’t think the Patriots focused on Williams when players like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are on the field, so the fact that Williams only gained 30 yards on the ground is very concerning.
Williams signed a two-year extension with the Chiefs, who rewarded him with a $1.6 million signing bonus. He’ll earn a base salary of $1.2 million in 2019, and can be cut to save over $2.8 million in cap space in 2020. By comparison, Carlos Hyde, his primary backup, is slated to earn $2.7 million this season.
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Given this is the case, I expect one of two things to happen by next year. Either the Chiefs have found a gem in their sixth-round pick Darwin Thompson, an RB from Utah, or they are planning to start all over at the position through a loaded 2020 draft class.
I do not expect Damien Williams to be the long-term starter in Kansas City. He doesn’t have the same pedigree or success as other running backs being valued at his level. I think any Williams owner would be wise to sell high while he still can, or else you’ll be left with nothing to show for it by 2020.
Below are some trades involving Williams found by using our Draft Trade Analyzer.
- 2023 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: San Francisco 49ers - July 28, 2023
- The Dynasty Value of Trading a 2023 Rookie Pick for a 2024 Pick - May 19, 2023
- How and Where to Pick Running Backs - May 15, 2023
