Mitchell Trubisky: Buy Or Sell?
For the first time in years, it’s been exciting to be a Chicago Bears fan. Coming off a massively successful 12-4 season in 2018, the team has Super Bowl aspirations after getting a taste of the playoffs for the first time since 2010.
The defense made all the headlines last season, but the offense also features plenty of talent, with receivers Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, and Adam Shaheen. The offensive line is one of the best in the league, and a talented backfield includes names like ‘cheat code’ Tarik Cohen and rookie David Montgomery.
General manager Ryan Pace’s goal in 2018 was to build a great supporting cast around now third-year starter Mitchell Trubisky, and he did so. Trubisky, however, was subject to much criticism due to his inconsistent play in comparison to his draft class peers Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Many have gone so far as to say Trubisky could potentially hold Chicago back from ever reaching the Super Bowl.
Criticism at the quarterback position is nothing new for the Bears. Jay Cutler dealt with an abundant amount of backlash from the eight years he was in the Windy City, and of course, Rex Grossman was widely considered the weak point on the 2006 team that reached the Super Bowl. But Trubisky at the very least still has time to develop into a good starter.
In his sophomore season, Trubisky threw for 3,223 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. As a runner, he added 421 yards and three touchdowns. In total, his 263.02 fantasy points on the year were the 15th most among all quarterbacks and 19th overall.
Trubisky will turn 25 in August, and there will be little doubt that discussions of whether he deserves a second contract will open once the 2019 season ends. As such, we’re going to discuss whether he’s worthy of an investment for your dynasty team.
A huge strike against Trubisky is his decision-making. Granted, he had to learn a new system with Matt Nagy’s offense, but #10 was often forcing the ball into enemy hands, and as this play illustrates, he was very fortunate to escape with zero interceptions in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs last season.
Trubisky threw three dropped interceptions in that game, all in the first half. This one really has no excuse to be thrown. He’s forced outside the pocket, and since no one’s open, he had to throw this away with what little time remained in the first half. This is just an errant, poor decision from Trubisky, and that defender had the easiest interception of his career go through his hands.
This play is designed as a QB rollout to the right. The Dolphins defense defends it well, and though it ends in an incompletion, Trubisky makes one of his worst throws all year.
At no point was Tarik Cohen open on this play, but this would at least be acceptable as a tight window pass if Trubisky weren’t throwing across the field with Reshad Jones spying on him. Jones drops what should be a huge interception, and on the very next play, the Bears capitalized on their second chance with a Trubisky touchdown to Anthony Miller.
Dropped interceptions are not sustainable for a quarterback who throws a lot of them. Eventually, that’s going to regress and it will regress hard if Trubisky’s decision-making does not improve.
This one is equally as baffling. The high safety, Tre Boston, is studying Trubisky’s eyes and the route of Allen Robinson all the way. But Trubisky is so locked onto Robinson he doesn’t even see Boston, and once again is fortunate to escape with a dropped interception on a terrible decision. This is especially fortunate for Chicago because they would score a touchdown two plays later.
This one wasn’t quite as bad as the other pays, but it was still bad, and this time Trubisky was punished with an interception. This could potentially be a theme for the quarterback next season unless he improves his decision-making and gets more comfortable in Nagy’s offense. I do agree with skeptics that this level of play going into 2019 would make Trubisky the weak link in the Bears’ quest to win a Super Bowl.
So those are the negatives with Trubisky, now let’s talk about what he brings to the table in a good way.
Despite what many think, Trubisky is not devoid of talent. Even when compared to Watson and Mahomes, he has an impressive display of mobility and is pretty good as a runner. He was third in ESPN’s QBR statistic, and a large part of that was because of how good he was in converting third downs with his feet as well as his overall rushing ability.
Though his erratic decision making holds him back, Trubisky is capable of playing outside his scheme in spectacular fashion, as shown by this excellent pocket movement against the Packers. Trubisky is able to keep his eyes up under heavy pressure and finds an open Adam Shaheen on third down.
Trubisky’s explosive play buying time in the pocket makes him worthy against pressure. His accuracy has been bad from time to time, but for the most part, it’s looked fine and has been at its best when he’s on the run.
And on occasion, Trubisky can have the sensational touch pass. Take this throw to Taylor Gabriel for example. Gabriel isn’t even open, yet Trubisky finds a way to make the trajectory of this throw work out so that only Gabriel has a shot at catching it. It’s a perfectly thrown ball and perhaps the best of the young quarterback’s career.
Overall, Trubisky’s rushing ability and play outside the pocket are intriguing, but his overall decision-making and shakiness are big concerns up to this point. I would not buy Trubisky in the early to mid rounds, and even later rounds are a stretch. But if you are looking for another quarterback in a 2QB league, I suppose Trubisky wouldn’t be the worst option.
How comfortable Trubisky is in year two of Matt Nagy’s offense will dictate how good he is in year three. If he’s anything like he was last year, that could put a dagger in Chicago’s Super Bowl hopes as well as a return to the postseason. But any sort of improvement will prove beneficial, as the Bears still have enough talent to contend for a title.
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