2018 Rookie Profile: Keke Coutee, WR Texas Tech
Keke Coutee is an undervalued player. He doesn’t seem to be on many of the ‘lists’ I’m seeing at the moment, certainly. In a class that seems deep but light at the top, dynasty owners need to be more familiar than normal with receiver prospects and even though Coutee has some obstacles to overcome, I believe he has the potential to be a useful asset.
Before we dive in, let’s acknowledge the biggest of those issues shall we?
Coutee is coming out of Texas Tech. Obviously, the Red Raiders are a very ‘college’ offense and there’s going to be a big transition for Coutee in the pros. That said, Patrick Mahomes had some of the same problems and he’s the hottest quarterback in dynasty fantasy football.
Statistics
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
Coutee’s 2017 season leaps off the page here. 1,400-plus yards, double-digit touchdowns, and a 76.9% catch rate are all impressive.
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Behind those numbers, it gets even better. In his final season, Coutee averaged 15.4 yards per completion and 11.8 yards per attempt. His yards per route run were up at 3.09. From an efficiency point of view, he was clearly exceptional but it’s a legitimate worry that the scheme manufactured much of that.
Looking even deeper we see that Coutee led the nation in a couple of key categories. He had 82 receptions and 1,265 yards from the slot which were both top. That sounds a lot like a Jarvis Landry slot monster, doesn’t it? Not so fast. He also caught 11 passes which travelled over 20 yards in the air (11th in the nation) for 501 deep yards (sixth in the nation) giving him a deep catch percentage of 66.7% (foutth in the nation). He was an efficient player in the slot, deep and overall.
As you can see here, Coutee was also a prolific kick returner in his final season.
All is not milkshakes and honey though. The numbers above also don’t show Coutee’s drop issues. He had 17 in three years including seven in 2017. He dropped 5.8% of catchable passes, which is pretty bad considering how open the scheme often left him.
Film
The number one trait that shows up on Coutee’s film is his speed. He’s rapid. In my system, I rank players on a five-point scale. Coutee scored a five on both speed and quickness. That speed shows up in his route running which I thought was sneaky and deceptive but also his YAC ability where he managed 778 yards in 2017. You can see him show of his blazing speed here:
It’s rare to see a player with both speed and quickness and I believe it explains Coutee’s effectiveness both as a deep target and a short-area slot weapon. You can see defensive coaches and backs trying to play a variety of cover techniques on him and generally failing. How much of that was due to his own ability and how much of it was schemed is open for debate. I suspect that it was mostly the system but his own ability will allow him to replicate it in the pros in the right situation.
That’s really key – he needs to go to the right team. Trying to stick him into an offense that isn’t willing to change to accommodate him will likely be a failure because Coutee is not a balanced, all-round player. We only need to look at Jakeem Grant under Adam Gase to see how he could pan out in the wrong place. But I like to imagine Coutee in an offense built around man-beater concepts like Green Bay or New England where his shiftiness would pair up beautifully with a decisive, accurate quarterback. West coast based schemes like Kansas City, Chicago and Cleveland could also be good fits.
Measurables
Here are his results from the combine via Mock Draftable:
You can clearly see the other obstacle facing Coutee – his lack of size. At just 5’9” and 181 lbs, Coutee is going to have to be pretty special to make it onto the field. His tiny hands don’t help matters either.
On the other hand, the speed I raved about earlier is also real. A 4.43 40 time and a 6.93 three-cone are a lovely combination. I was also impressed by his bench press. I don’t care about that sort of strength in a receiver like him but it shows dedication to overcome his small stature.
Here’s a list (again from Mock Draftable) of physically comparable players:
In his ball park, KD Cannon is obviously a cautionary tale but I find it encouraging to see Tyler Lockett and John Brown as comparisons. Both of those players have proven themselves to be useful NFL players, if not the sort who can be dominant as pros.
Their careers are probably fairly indicative of how Coutee’s would go if he gets lucky. They’ve both proven to be excellent weapons in certain situations. Consistent success is a big ask for them but with the right QB and the right gameplan, they can certainly put together impressive games and sporadic spectacular big plays.
Dynasty Value
This feels like a cop-out but Coutee’s value is all about landing spot. If he manages to drop into a situation with a settled, accurate QB and an inventive playcaller then I’ll be optimistic about Coutee being a contributor. If he does not have either one of those, his career could easily fizzle out before it even starts.
In NFL draft terms, I expect him to be a fairly late selection. Some time around round five is my best guess at the moment where his upside as a role player will be worth the gamble. Although, given his stature, I could easily see him slipping further and maybe going undrafted.
At the moment he’s being taken very late in dynasty drafts and is very much in that same category of being a gamble. I’ll be giving him very serious consideration in later rounds where I can stash him and then wait for a long touchdown or two to give him some name value. In the last three mocks I’ve done, I snagged him in the late third round or early fourth.
Conclusion
Coutee is a whole bunch of fun. If you like shifty players who can make their opponents miss then he’s well worth spending some time on. The fact that he can also be a John Brown-type deep threat is a big bonus.
Having said that, I can’t lie – he’s a long shot for NFL relevance let alone sustained fantasy success. I, for one, will be cheering hard for him to make it.
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