Rookie Report Card: Jaylen Samuels and Anthony Miller
Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and covering how he’s performed at the NFL level to this point, I’ll give him a grade in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2018 potential and long term upside.
The series continues as we take a look at Jaylen Samuels and Anthony Miller.
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Jaylen Samuels, RB PIT
Week Ten Stats: five carries, seven yards, three catches, 22 receiving yards (four targets)
Flashing back to draft season, Jaylen Samuels was a mystery to many who tried to pin down his upside. A jack of all trades in college, he spent as much time catching passes both out of the backfield and in the slot, piling up 201 career receptions for 1,851 yards and nine touchdowns, as he did taking handoffs and tosses, tallying 182 rushing attempts for 1,107 yards and 28 more scores.
Leading up to the draft, some saw Samuels as the “offensive weapon” he showed he was while at NC State – lining up throughout the formation and going from running a jet sweep from the slot on one play, to lining up at tight end and catching a pass on the next, and then playing the role of goal-line back in short yardage. Meanwhile, many others felt that while he was good at many things, he was great at none and that would limit his impact.
I leaned slightly towards the latter of those two theories.
Although there were definitely things to like with Samuels including his power at the goal line and hands in the passing game, I struggled to see him playing a big role in an NFL offense. Too big to be a slot receiver and too small to be an effective tight end – particularly blocking, where he struggles – Samuels profiled best as a pass catching part-time tailback that could also be used in short yardage.
Some may claim that’s the role he played in college, which is somewhat accurate. But in college, that role kept Samuels on the field nearly full-time. I wasn’t convinced it could translate to more than a handful of plays per game on Sundays.
Since being selected by the Steelers in the fifth round, Samuels hasn’t had many opportunities outside of the 28 carries and eight catches he posted in the pre-season. In those four games, he averaged just 3.1 yards per carry and 50 receiving yards (mostly out of the backfield) but did have a nice goal-line score that featured good change of direction to find a hole against the Packers.
Inactive in weeks one and two of the regular season and relegated to special teams duties up until the bye week in week seven despite Le’Veon Bell holding out, he’s finally seen a small amount of action over the last three games – rushing for just 26 yards on 10 carries (2.6 YPC).
His biggest opportunity came on Thursday Night Football in week ten, when Samuels carried five times for seven yards (1.4 YPC) and caught three passes for 22 yards and a six-yard touchdown in relief of James Conner.
While Samuels’ overall numbers in the game were relatively uninspiring, his touchdown catch (and perhaps the 14-yarder as well) will certainly be enough to keep dynasty owners of the rookie hopeful of a future role.
All things told, I’m still hesitant to get on the Samuels bandwagon. Even with the injury to Conner, he was sharing touches with Stevan Ridley (both had eight) which isn’t a good sign short-term. And as far as his long-term prospects go, I feel it’s fair to say the Steeler’s coaching staff – at the very least – hasn’t found a role for him yet.
That all said, I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m wrong about Samuels. I was wrong about Bell coming out of Michigan State and wasn’t thrilled about the upside of Conner when he was drafted out of Pitt. Both changed their game as well as their bodies once they got to Pittsburgh so nobody should be surprised if Samuels does the same.
While I wouldn’t bet on Samuels ever delivering consistent RB2 numbers in fantasy, no dynasty owner with moderate to large roster space is wasting on a roster spot on him at this point.
Anthony Miller, WR CHI
Week Ten Stats: five catches, 122 yards, one touchdown (six targets)
We all remember fondly the rise in rookie value Miller had after landing with the Bears and getting rookie camp. The reports out of Chicago seemed never-ending. The coaching staff was giddy over his upside in their offense due to his talent when creating separation. He rose from being labelled a raw slot receiver leading up to the NFL draft to being a leaned upon full-time player for the Bears within what seemed like only a matter of weeks. Perhaps that rise shouldn’t have been such a surprise for many of us however.
Not overly big (5’11 – 200 lbs.), Miller played bigger than his measurements in college – particularly at the catch point. Constantly out-muscling defensive backs for position in the American Athletic Conference, it was clear he could have played in any conference in football.
Miller used excellent acceleration at the line scrimmage, cat-like quickness out of his cuts and incredible eye/hand coordination to average 96 catches, 1,448 yards and 11 touchdowns over his final two years in college.
Even with that production, however, many questioned what Miller’s impact could be in the NFL leading up to the draft. Despite his quickness, many saw a slot guy that had a chance to get open in the short to intermediate part of the field due to his quickness but would struggle on the perimeter due to lack of deep speed. Too many drops and bobbles also worried many draft analysts leading up to the draft.
Those concerns seemed to go away quickly once he put on a helmet however.
Although the news out of Chicago was so positive, Miller saw little action in the pre-season – catching just two passes. As it turns out though, the Bears appeared to just be protecting one of their offensive weapons.
Though he’s averaged just three grabs for 42 yards over those games, Miller has scored four touchdowns already and had a bit of a coming out party in week ten.
This week against Detroit, Miller tallied five catches for 122 yards and an impressive touchdown catch. Working almost exclusively out of the slot, he mixed short, possession routes over the middle with deep overs and even a jet sweep touch pass. His two longest plays of the game were a 45-yard touchdown on a corner route against cover-two coverage between the corner and safety. He then fought off a tackle and accelerated to the end zone. His 55-yarder came on a deep over route against another zone coverage. He showed good acceleration and a nice cutback to gain extra yardage on the play..
Here’s a look at all six of Miller’s targets in week ten.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHLLhas3UnE
Miller’s usage has increased throughout his rookie season. Playing 53% of snaps over the first three weeks,, that number has risen to 70% since. Having also received at least six targets in each of the last four games, it’s clear that the Chicago coaching staff is making an effort to make Miller a focal point of the offense.
Although he has only one 50-yard game as a professional, it should be obvious to anybody watching him play that Miller is becoming a big part of what head coach Matt Nagy wants to do. No matter what your feelings about the quarterback situation or the other pass catchers including Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Tarik Cohen and even Taylor Gabriel, it’s difficult to see a path to Miller being lower than the second highest targeted Bear as soon as 2019.
If the 2018 trade deadline has passed in your league, I’d be confident the price to acquire him is about to go up over the next seven weeks so you may have missed your chance to get him at a reasonable cost. If not, I’d be thrilled to send any mid-to-late 2019 first rounder to get Miller before that happens – particularly in PPR leagues.
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