The DLF Dynasty Trading Post: September

Welcome to the Dynasty Trading Post, a regular column here at Dynasty League Football. This column is intended to track which players or assets increasing, or even decreasing, in value, allowing our readers to adjust their sights and values accordingly.

The NFL season is in full swing and we’ve already seen some major trades in the NFL and rumors of yet more to come. These trades have the potential to impact fantasy leagues in dramatic ways, with some NFL trades prompting similar trades in the fantasy game.

Let’s see what the Dynasty Trade Finder can reveal to us:

“Bell” Cow For Trade?

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One of the biggest news stories coming out of this young season revolves around the contact dispute between the Pittsburgh Steelers and their All-Pro running back, Le’Veon Bell.

Coming off a 2017 season which saw him establish career highs in carries, rushing touchdowns, receptions and all-purpose yardage, Bell clearly felt he deserved a new, long-term contract that reflected his contributions to the team. The Steelers felt differently and opted to place the franchise tag designation on him.

In response, Bell announced he would not be signing the one-year deal and would not report to the team until a long-term deal was agreed to. Unfortunately, that’s where we still stand in this protracted dispute and the Steelers are now rumored to be listening to trade offers for the rights to sign Bell.

The dynasty community has reacted to this situation by making Bell the second-most traded player and the player who has seen his trade volume increase by the second-highest percentage, seeing an increase of 211.8 percent over the prior month. If you’ve ever wanted to obtain more shares of Bell, now is the time as the price might never be better.

However, buyer beware. The possibility exists that Bell may sit out until week ten, at the very least, or potentially the whole season in an effort to force the Steelers’ hand.

A New (England) Start for Josh Gordon

The biggest trade thus far in the NFL season involves the lightning rod for controversy known as Josh Gordon.

According to reports, Gordon breached the trust of the Cleveland Browns by failing to report the source of a hamstring injury sustained before the Browns’ week two game. Initially, the Browns stated that they would release Gordon the following Monday, effectively doing the most-Browns-like thing possible, by getting nothing for something.

Apparently, several other teams attempted to intervene by initiating trade talks with Cleveland in order to get a jump on acquiring the talented receiver via a trade. Potential suitors included the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, and his eventual landing spot, the New England Patriots.

As a result, Gordon’s trade volume erupted, making him the most-traded player in the past month, accounting for 28% more trades than the second-most traded player, the aforementioned Le’Veon Bell. Newly-minted Gordon owners will have to wait until week four, at the earliest, before seeing if all the fuss is worth what they had to give up in order to acquire him.

Where Did They Go?

The top players from each position who saw their trade volumes drop by the biggest percentages were Evan Engram (a 54.1% drop), Tyreek Hill (a 46.9% drop) and Derrius Guice (a 46.4% drop).

Engram and Hill have likely become harder to acquire given how they have performed thus far, while Guice has likely seen his market dry up as memory of his injury slowly begins to fade from the collective dynasty consciousness.

His drop in tradeability is also a natural correction given the fact that he was the most traded player in the prior month, tallying 97 trades over that time as opposed to the next-most traded player – Brandin Cooks – who was traded 50 times, nearly half the volume that Guice accounted for.

Pick A Pick, Any Pick!

Future draft picks continue to see an increase in tradeability with every tracked future pick increasing in trade volume over the past 30 days.

First-round picks continue to be the most difficult asset to acquire of the bunch, true to their perceived value, increasing in volume 7.4% for 2019 first-rounders, and 19.3% for 2020 first-rounders. While the percentage increases are respectable, they collectively account for only 26.2% of the tracked draft pick trades.

Second-round picks accounted for 37.3% of that volume while third rounder clocked in at 36.4% of that volume. The pick that saw the slowest rate of growth in tradeability over the past month was 2019 second-round picks, which grew at a rate of only 2.3% month over month.

On the flip side, the pick with the biggest growth in tradeability month over month was the 2020 third-round pick which saw its trade volume increase by 37.9%, followed closely by the 2020 second-round pick at a 35.5% growth rate. Some, but not all, of this can likely be traced back to many leagues allowing 2020 picks to be traded in this time frame. That said, the number of trades that occurred in the month prior appear to indicate a real, organic and growing desire for these picks.

In regard to 2019 picks, the third-round pick was not only the most traded in the class, outstripping the first and second-round picks combined by over 330%, it also saw the biggest growth of the class month over month, seeing its volume increase by 14.9%, the only 2019 pick to see a double-digit growth rate.

IDP Corner Market

The big news around IDP circles was the trade of Khalil Mack from the Raiders to the Bears. This resulted in a trade volume spike of 133% over the prior month. Not only did Mack’s trade percentage increase, he also was the most traded IDP player over the past month, doubling the second-most traded IDP asset, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.

Despite losing out on that honor to Mack, Clinton-Dix was the defensive back who was both the most traded and highest percentage growth in trades month over month. Outside of these two players, the IDP trade market has been remarkably quiet over the past month. It is likely that IDP owners are more content to take a wait and see approach to seeing their assets develop, but as just as willing to trade or acquire defensive assets in response to news on any given player.

Many of the trades conducted in the first month of the season appear to have been directly in response to actions that occurred off the field. As the season begins to take more of a shape in the coming months, look for trades beginning to materialize that are in response to players’ given opportunities – seeing a boost or decrease in their production – and yet others that are less reactionary, and more speculative in nature.

Be sure to continuously check the Dynasty Trade Finder as it has added another 10,000 trades since I last wrote this piece, a growth of seven percent! No one can ever say that dynasty, especially trading in the format, is boring. Good luck to all of you in your trades, and teams, over the coming months!

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