2018 IDP Projections: Kansas City Chiefs
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2017 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
The Chiefs have had a pretty interesting off-season so far. They seem to have decided they need a defensive revamp and let long-term middle linebacker Derrick Johnson, as well as star corner Marcus Peters, go before drafting very defensively and adding some really interesting pieces. With Alex Smith gone and Patrick Mahomes given the quarterback job, it certainly seems like the team has hit reset.
The Chiefs fans made a huge impression when they came to London a few years ago and so earn a lot of goodwill from this writer. Let’s see if they’ve got any nascent IDP stars.
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Defensive tackle
This definitely seems high for Xavier Williams but the Chiefs seem to believe in him. They gave him about two and a half million bucks guaranteed to come in and fill the void left by Dontari Poe when he left after 2016. Poe proved (as did Bennie Logan) that this is a productive role and Williams appears to have little competition for the job. He’s a terrible option in leagues that require sacks from tackles to be useful (i.e. all combined DT/DE leagues) but in tackle-heavy leagues he’s a good under-the-radar option.
Defensive end
Chris Jones is one of the more frustrating IDPs in the league. He clearly has a boatload of talent but has yet to bring it to bear consistently in his pro career. In week two of 2017, he managed three sacks, four solos and an interception against the Eagles. But he followed that up with only another three and a half sacks and 18 tackles for the rest of the season. Partially this is a result of his position as an interior player but he’s also inconsistent. It’s also clear the Chiefs don’t think he can hold up to a full snap count. He averaged 42 snaps per game last season. Jones is clearly an explosive impact player at times but he does not have the volume or motor that someone like Akiem Hicks does, which hurts his value.
On the other side, Allen Bailey still seems to be in possession of the starting job. He was even more of a tease than Jones and managed half of all his sacks and a quarter of all his solo tackles in week one of 2017. When the team drafted Breeland Speaks early, it seemed he would battle Bailey for a job but the team has indicated Speaks will play linebacker. Bailey has very little value at this stage.
Inside linebacker
Derrick Johnson has gone! He was a fixture on the Chiefs since 2005 so it’ll be weird to see them without him. It was, however, not unexpected. Before the Chiefs bye in 2017, Johnson played about 66 snaps per game. After the bye, just 42. He was being phased out.
Anthony Hitchens was brought in on a mega contract from Dallas (where he was their best LB for most of last year) and will likely be the number one choice at the position. He’s still being slept on and could be a great value.
The Chiefs have used a lot of big nickel sets in recent years and so there’s really only one full-time LB spot to fill but fighting for part-time playing time are Reggie Ragland (averaged just 27 snaps per game in 2017) and Dorian O’Daniel (only selected in the third round out of Clemson). O’Daniel is the more exciting, given he’s a very modern tweener and could easily play a tweener role, but he’s a gamble. Ragland is a favorite of many IDP players but seems very unlikely to win a full-time role. In all likelihood, neither will be a good option in 2018.
Outside linebacker
Justin Houston is locked in as one of the better outside ‘backers in the league. He’s one of only two or three players in the NFL for whom double-digit sacks seems a minimum viable return.
After that it gets messy.
Dee Ford will get first chance to be ‘the guy’. He had ten sacks in 2016 but played only just over 300 snaps in 2017 due to injury (he was shut down after week nine). He has just 17.5 sacks in four seasons.
Tannoh Kpassagnon and Speaks are about the biggest OLBs in the NFL. Both are north of 280 pounds. And as you’d expect, they’re both pretty raw at the position. Expecting more than a situational role from either would be optimistic.
Cornerback
The Chiefs brought in Kendall Fuller as part of the Alex Smith deal and it went a little unnoticed. This is an oversight as he’s an excellent player who deserves respect. With Marcus Peters out of the building, Fuller is instantly by far the best corner on this team. He’ll likely play outside against two-WR sets and move to the slot in sub packages. If he can prove anywhere near as effective as Peters in terms of plays on the ball, he’ll be a solid buy.
David Amerson has a chance to be useful too but for different reasons. He’s very much on the spectrum of dodgy-corner-who-might-be-heavily-targeted.
Safety
Eric Berry is hopefully fully fit. He’s exorbitantly talented and the NFL is better with him in it. However (contrary to many people’s beliefs), he’s in no way a strong safety. Like Harrison Smith, he’s a flexible player who lines up deep a lot due to his excellent range and instincts. This has meant that over his career he’s not been a big tackler. The average top 12 safety records 79 solo tackles per season. Berry has never managed that. His best was 73 and that was back in 2013. He’s absolutely a player to trade away on name value.
Sorenson has been the box safety in recent years. he lines up as a nickel linebacker in base sets (which is why there’s only one full-time LB in KC). The problem is he’s hugely inefficient. Sorenson played 992 snaps in 2017 but managed just 66 solos. That tackle efficiency puts him next to DeAngelo Hall and Marwin Evans and is far short of what we want to see from a player with that role. Hence the use of a third-round pick on Dorian O’Daniel who could easily end up taking Sorenson’s job.
Armani Watts is a player getting some hype but he’s a true deep safety. His role could be similar to Duron Harmon’s in New England – bad news for IDP.
Stud
Justin Houston. Many people saw 2017 as a down year for him but he still managed 54 total pressures (Julius Peppers had 31, Ezekiel Ansah 37) and nine and a half sacks. Houston has averaged slightly under ten sacks a season over his career. Averaged! He’s still an elite pass rusher and should be treated as such.
Disappointment
Reggie Ragland. Yep. I know he was injured as a rookie. That doesn’t explain him being chased out of Buffalo and then given a part-time job next to an aging and slowing Derrick Johnson. He could come good and win the lone productive LB job over the player (Hitchens) they gave $25m guaranteed ($45m total)… but it’s very unlikely.
Dark horse
Dorian O’Daniel. He’s a long shot but has a great opportunity. Daniel Sorenson has owned a really good IDP role. It’s just he’s done a bad job of capitalizing. O’Daniel could come in and be Josh Jones if things go right for him.
Summary
As above, it really seems like the Chiefs are taking the opportunity to build a new team. Andy Reid has stability and trust and a long leash so he can if he wants.
If certain players (Justin Houston, Dee Ford, Chris Jones, Kendall Fuller) have good seasons this could be a really good year but there’s a lot of hoping involved.
Thanks for reading.
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