2018 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Strategy: A Round-by-Round Approach

Bradley Ylitalo Posted On May 27, 2018

Many leagues are entering their rookie drafts and there’s no better time to break down strategy. In an intriguing class seemingly stacked at running back and quarterback and perhaps a bit weaker at tight end and wide receiver, owners need to come into their drafts with a clear-cut plan for their team. In this article, I’ll go through round-by-round advising you whether to trade in, out, or hold your picks and also give you advice as to what position you should be targeting within that round. In any draft, team needs should obviously be taken into account, but we’ll break down each position group and discuss when you should take them to get premium value.

Let’s get into some rookie draft strategy!

Round One | Target: RB | Trade Strategy: Hold

We’ve known this for quite a while now – there’s some serious talent here at the running back position. The NFL Draft only served to benefit this class. In Saquon Barkley, Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, and Royce Freeman, we have ourselves six incoming rookies who should be lead backs in year one.

It doesn’t stop there, though. Although they are both in crowded backfields, I won’t be surprised in the slightest if Nick Chubb and Kerryon Johnson earn their unquestioned starting jobs before mid-season rolls around. Count them up and there are eight backs who are well worth a first-round investment. Don’t miss out on the chance to grab one of these young stars.

Why shouldn’t I trade into round one? I’m almost never a fan of trading up into the first, no matter the year. It’s just plain too expensive. In this class, that won’t be much different. With a strong round two, I would be content waiting until then to make my second selection.

Why shouldn’t I trade out of round one? Quite simply, you’re guaranteed great value. Even if you cannot get one of these running backs, you’ll be able to land a tier one receiver. Whether it be D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, or Christian Kirk, you’re coming away with someone who should be an immediate difference maker.

Round Two | Target: WR, QB | Trade Strategy: Move In

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This wide receiver class didn’t have the same elite talent we’ve grown accustomed to. There’s no shortage of depth, however. Expect round two to be peppered with wideouts. With James Washington, Dante Pettis, Anthony Miller, Michael Gallup and D.J. Chark, we have some tremendously talented pass catchers who landed in pretty ideal spots. There’s most likely going to be a run of receivers. Don’t miss out on being a part of it.

If you’ve read any of my work, you know I’ve been pounding this point home whenever I get the chance – grab a quarterback. Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, and Josh Rosen are all round two picks according to DLF ADP and have excellent shots at becoming true QB1’s down the road. It can be tough to spend a second rounder on a prospect who most likely won’t start right away, but this is an exception you can feel good about making.

Why should I trade into round two? Most rookie drafts don’t have sudden talent drop-offs. This one does. I can’t express enough how much better round two prospects are than round three. Don’t sell the farm moving up, but take any opportunity you can get.

Why shouldn’t I trade out of round two? Unless you’re trading for current players or future picks, it’s simply not worth it. The value in 2018 picks you will get just isn’t on par with what you’re giving up.

Round Three | Target: QB, TE | Trade Strategy: Move Out

The trio of Jackson, Mayfield and Rosen are all most likely off the board at this point, but we still have two quarterbacks I absolutely love. Sam Darnold, who the Jets traded four high end picks for, is somebody I have very high hopes for. I can’t wait until he’s the starter in New York. As for instant value, it’s close to zero for Darnold. But if he continues to hone in his game and GM Mike Maccagnan can add some talent at the skill positions, Darnold could dominate.

And then there’s Josh Allen. I won’t once again rehash my monologue on why I believe in him, but I implore owners to take advantage of his diminished stock. Do I like the landing spot in Buffalo? No, but it could be worse. If Allen can sit behind A.J. McCarron for one or even two years, he’ll be capable of changing a Bills franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game twenty-three years.

In DLF ADP, three tight ends are slated as third round picks. This is the time to add a young piece to your tight end group. With Mike Gesicki almost assuredly gone, Hayden Hurst, Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews remain. As I’ve said, I really like Hurst out of these three. At any time in the third, I’m not hesitating to pull the trigger on him. I’m not as confident with Andrews or Goedert. However, late in round three, they’re both more than solid options.

Why shouldn’t I be trading into round three? If you’re asking me, this is a thinner round three than usual. I definitely wouldn’t be making sure I have as many third rounders as possible. If you really feel that there’s a must have at this point, just be patient, I can assure you there will be someone of similar value in round four.

Why should I trade out of round three? As I said in the last section, round four is pretty darn close in terms of straight-up value. Couple that with the palpable drop off of talent after round two and you can see picking I’m pretty down on round three as a whole.

Round Four | Target: WR, TE | Trade Strategy: Hold

You’re not usually looking for instant starters in round four as these are your typical “flyer” picks. All these players all round four prospects for a reason, but I love what we have here in 2018. At wide receiver, take Keke Coutee and Daurice Fountain all day long. Coutee should be the number three receiver in a solid Texans passing attack and Fountain has the opportunity to earn a solid role in a Colts offense looking for playmakers.

I can’t help but gush over the tight ends available in round four. Sure, the big names are gone, but players like Jordan Akins, Ian Thomas, and Dalton Schultz are all fantastic options. Akins, like Coutee, should play an important role in year one for a Texans offense on the rise. Thomas will be the heir apparent to a tight end in Greg Olsen who could be retiring very soon. And Schultz could easily be starting in Dallas right off the bat.

Why shouldn’t I trade into round four? While it may seem like I’m absolutely enamored with round four, I understand it’s not necessarily better than any other year. Unless you badly need tight end help and feel good about Akins or Schultz right away, there’s no need to gather more picks in this round.

Why shouldn’t I trade out of round four? As I’m sure you know, trading fourth rounders doesn’t get you much in return. With the talent we have here trading your pick for minimal value in return doesn’t make a ton of sense. Only trade out if a desperate leaguemate is giving you something you can’t refuse.

That wraps up this edition of “Bradley Ylitalo’s Scouting Notebook“. Please leave a comment or question about a specific prospect, or fit for your team, below. Feel free to shoot me a question on Twitter (@NFL_Drafthub), I’m always happy to interact with football fans.

See you next time!

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