Fantasy Efficiency: Chris Thompson, RB WAS

Justin Bales Posted On May 10, 2018

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Player: Chris Thompson

Position: RB

2017 Touches: 103

2017 PPR Points: 151.4

2017 FP/Touch: 1.47

2017 Season

Thompson was a fifth round pick for the Redskins in 2013, but barely saw the field in his first two seasons. He was a situational player in 2015 and 2016, recording 187 total touches through those seasons. He was enjoying a breakout season in 2017 before fracturing his fibula, costing him the final six games of the year. This was a devastating injury to Thompson, as he was on pace for 1,286 total yards and 10 total touchdowns over a 16 game span.

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Thompson is an undersized running back, who saw limited touches through his ten games last season. In 2017, he saw 64 carries, which account for only 16% of the Redskins total carries. He was an efficient runner for the Redskins, totaling 20.3% of the team’s rushing yards and 20% of Washington’s rushing touchdowns. He also led everyone with ten or more touches with 4.6 yards per carry.

Thompson was an elite receiver for the Redskins, as he was on pace to average a 62-816-6 line before his injury. Each of these numbers would have led the Redskins in each specific category, while ranking second in targets (86). Thompson also posted a 72.2% catch rate, which was the highest of any players with 50+ targets. Overall, Thompson needed 10.1% of the team’s targets to record 11.3% of receptions, 12.5% of yards, and 14.8% of touchdowns.

Efficiency

Thompson relies heavily on his receiving skills, while his touchdown rate also increased in 2017. He was the only running back in the top-35 in PPR scoring to have less than 130 touches. His receiving role is also not going to disappear, as he was one of 14 running backs to see 35% or more of his touches come through receptions. He also ranked second in fantasy points per touch of any running back with more than 60 touches, behind only Alvin Kamara. Thompson also finished the season as the RB28 but ranked 54th in the NFL in touches.

Future Outlook

Thompson is an interesting player. He’s only 27 years old, so he still has plenty to give the Washington Redskins. He’s a small running back, though, and will never be truly featured in a workhorse role. That said, he has proven that he can be a valuable asset as a third down back and in a change-of-pace role, while finishing out the final years of his prime.

The Redskins lost their starting quarterback in Kirk Cousins this off-season, but they replaced him with Alex Smith. It is not crazy to think that Smith is a small upgrade on Cousins, as he posted a better completion percentage and touchdown rate last season, although they were very similar. Smith also targeted his running backs at a similar rate as Cousins, and Washington’s offense likely will not change that. Overall, even with Cousins leaving Washington, Thompson will see a similar quarterback situation for the next few years.

The biggest question mark surrounding Thompson is the addition of Derrius Guice in the second round of the NFL Draft. Guice was brought in to be a workhorse running back, but Thompson likely was not going to play on first and second downs anyway. The key is Guice’s receiving role. He only totaled 32 receptions throughout three years at LSU, but he flashed good hands at his Pro Day, suggesting he can truly become a three-down back. The most likely scenario is that Guice is the early-down workhorse for Washington, while Thompson continues to play the change of pace role.

Washington added Paul Richardson to their receiving corps this off-season, but that should not affect Thompson’s targets. Last season, Terrelle Pryor and Ryan Grant combined for 102 targets, but those two only saw more targets than Thompson in two games. It’s clear that regardless of how they need to do it, they are going to get Thompson involved in the offense once he’s healthy.

Current Value

Thompson is one of the most underrated players in fantasy football, featuring an April ADP of 101.5, or the middle of the ninth round. He’s being selected as the RB35, even though he needed only ten games to finish as the RB28. Thompson is not necessarily a young option, but he is young enough to be a valuable asset for years to come.

Thompson also seems to come with very little trade value compared to his production. Below are some of the trades that took place in 12-team PPR dynasty leagues in March and April involving Thompson.

Chris Thompson/Vernon Davis for Travis Benjamin/Greg Olsen
Chris Thompson for George Kittle
Chris Thompson/4.07 for 3.05
Chris Thompson for Lamar Miller/Jonathan Stewart

Thompson is never going to be a workhorse running back who is going to record 300 touches in a season, but he does not have to be. The Redskins will likely limit his touches to keep him healthy, but he has proven that he may potentially need less than 100 touches to hit value at his current price. He’s a low risk, high upside option at this point in the off-season.

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