Post-Draft IDP Rookie Linebacker Rankings
With the 2018 draft in the books then many of you (like me) will be diving straight into rookie drafts. This is the order in which I’m going after what is the glamour IDP position for many people; linebackers.
Inside linebackers
1. Tremaine Edmunds, LB BUF
I am besotted by Edmunds. I normally try to shy away from rookie hype but this is just the perfect mix of draft capital and landing spot. The Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has a solid history of producing stat monsters at inside linebacker. Edmunds will walk in and start from day one and I think he could easily be a top 12 linebacker as a rookie. He’s going to be taken really early in rookie drafts. I suspect you’ll need to invest a first-round pick to get him.
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2. Roquan Smith, LB CHI
I still think Smith is the better prospect as an NFL player but going to Chicago is nowhere near as exciting as Buffalo. Smith will start next to Danny Trevathan and the competition for tackles will likely be fierce. I currently have Smith down as a low LB2 prospect for 2018 and I expect that long-term he’ll be a fine player. I’ll be hyping up his landing spot now to ensure he goes as early in the second round as possible.
3. Darius Leonard, LB IND
It was a fairly big surprise for me to see Leonard go early in the second round but it makes sense. The Colts were in desperate need for at least one linebacker and this fills a need beautifully. I’ve got him higher than a couple of other first-round picks because I think he’s a more reliable, classic inside backer. He’ll be powered by volume more than excellence but I think he’ll be reliable. He’s currently an early LB3 for me in 2018.
4. Leighton Vander Esch, LB DAL
Vander Esch was taken in the top 20 selections but slides slightly because of a muddled depth chart.
In Dallas, Sean Lee is clearly still the best player on the team and we also know the team is very keen on Jaylon Smith. That’s three LBs competing for limited production. Sure Sean Lee will probably be gone in 2019 and Smith was bad in 2018 but it’s a muddle and that worries me.
I expect around 170 solos and 90 assists in Dallas this year for their top three linebackers. There could easily be three different OK players at the position but no star. I have Vander Esch as the number two option (with Smith playing base downs at Sam) but still as an LB4 prospect for 2018.
5. Rashaan Evans, LB TEN
I’m a big Evans fan but there’s a lingering suspicion that he might be a better NFL player than IDP. If he wins the top middle job (that Wesley Woodyard held in 2017) then he’ll move up but doing that is a tall order for a rookie. Look at Jarrad Davis last season. I suspect Evans will share a job with Jayon Brown as well as spending a bit of time rushing the passer. That will limit his production and means he’s an LB4 prospect for me in 2018.
6. Oren Burks, LB GB
Burks was not a player I was high on before the draft but I’ve picked up a lot in the last few days. I’m not totally convinced Blake Martinez is the long-term answer to the Packers’ LB issues and Burks could easily get playing time in one of the more flexible defenses in the league. I’m not currently predicting him to be fantasy-relevant in 2018 but I like him a lot as a taxi stash if you can find the space.
7. Jerome Baker, LB MIA
Baker is a really interesting player because he’s a coverage specialist in the NFL. He’ll be firmly behind Raekwon McMillan and Kiko Alonso in the pecking order but he could also easily be the best backer they have in space. Which means he should find a role. I’m expecting around 31 solos and 14 assists from Baker which would make him way outside of weekly starter material – but he will have an excellent route to playing time if injuries strike.
8. Uchenna Nwosu, LB LAC
This is a landing spot that’s initially frustrating but with huge potential. The Chargers took Nwosu in round two which shows great confidence in him but his obvious spot is still Sam linebacker. Which means he’ll be capped at circa 500 snaps. Very much not ideal for IDPs. However, the Chargers are seriously thin on the inside with only Denzel Perryman as an established starter. I think it’s perfectly feasible that Nwosu carves out a bigger role than just paying Sam. He’s got a varied skillset for sure. I’ not betting on that happening but it could.
9. Micah Kiser, LB LAR
I’ve been vocal about how little I like Wade Phillips’ linebackers before but this is another slot that’s all about opportunity. Mark Barron is a fine player but Ramik Wilson is far less impressive. I can see Kiser winning that battle in training camp at which point he’ll become an LB4 candidate.
10. Fred Warner, LB SF
This spot rather depends on Reuben Foster. If Foster is available then Warner is fighting Brock Coyle and Malcolm Smith for number two snaps. If Foster is not (and I don’t think the current case is guaranteed to be his last legal problem) then all bets are off. The second LB role in San Francisco is the same job K.J. Wright owns and we’ve seen how well that can produce.
11. Malik Jefferson, LB CIN
Malik Jefferson is an intriguing talent but one with some serious flaws. He never quite lived up to his billing as a star in Texas and now he’s a Bengal and he’ll have to bide his time waiting for a spot to open up and the notoriously rookie-averse coaching staff to let him on the field. He’s certainly worth stashing but I don’t expect anything from him in 2018
12. Shaquem Griffen, LB SEA
The Griffen brothers reuniting in Seattle is simply the best story of the draft. I’m desperate for him to be a raging success. But the odds are stacked against him. He’s an undersized prospect (as an off-ball linebacker let alone a specialist pass rusher) not to mention was only taken in round five and has two fantastic, established players in front of him. Then again if anyone can overcome odds like that it’s Griffen and who doesn’t want to have him on their rosters?
13. Josey Jewell, LB DEN
This was a terrible landing spot and Jewell slides way down the board. I see the best possible result as winning Todd Davis’ role which is strictly a part-time one given the amount of big nickel the Broncos play. Jewell simply does not have the range or speed to take Brandon Marshall’s full-time job.
14. Genard Avery, LB CLE
The only way Avery has value is in case of injury in Cleveland unfortunately. I can’t see him taking Joe Schobert’s job. He’s a talented player and might get a better shot in 2019 if he can hang around but he’s not going to be a 2018 star.
15. Dorian O’Daniel, LB KC
The Chiefs are another big nickel team leaving really only one linebacker job. Given the contract they gave him, Anthony Hitchens has the inside track on that with Reggie Ragland the likely backup/part-timer. O’Daniel will likely have more of a chance battling Daniel Sorenson for his own sub-package role.
So there you have it. I think there are five linebackers in this draft and produce right away; Tremaine Edmunds is going to be a star. Roquan Smith very good. Darius Leonard, Rashaan Evans and Leighton Vander Esch are all good options too.
After that, there are five to ten players who have a shot at getting a starting spot at some point. A couple of them will likely end up being pretty good. But then again, at least one of the top names is likely to get hurt at some point. Linebackers are plentiful but fragile and even though it’s a great time of year to stockpile please try and stay sensible with your expectations.
Thanks for reading.
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