2018 Rookie Profile: Courtland Sutton, WR SMU
Throw any consensus rankings out the window with this year’s wide receiver class. I cannot remember when another group of analysts disagreed on all the players at the top so heavily. At the forefront of those debates stands SMU receiver, Courtland Sutton. Let’s find out what makes him one of the more polarizing prospects of the 2018 class.
Stats
Disregarding a medical redshirt season as a true freshman, Sutton was a very consistent producer at SMU. He made his presence felt quickly, averaging nearly 100 yards receiving and scoring five touchdowns in his first four games in the 2015 season.
Statistics from sports-reference.com
His numbers jumped up across the board in his sophomore season as the hype on him started to build. He had what some called a “down” season last year but still managed to record over 1000 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns. Sutton received increased attention from opposing defenses after his stellar sophomore season and fellow SMU receiver Trey Quinn emerged to take a good chunk of targets. Regardless, the slight dip in statistics does not worry me as much as it does others.
Film
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Sutton’s inconsistent hand technique is one of my biggest knocks on him. As you can see in the video above, there are times when he either “claps” at the ball and ends up bobbling it or lets the ball get into his body (54 seconds into the video above). However, you will also see him make some unbelievable catches (1:42 into the video above).
In addition, there are games where it is evident he was simply too big and talented for the small-school players he was competing against. I would have liked to see how he fared when consistently playing against tougher competition, but there have been plenty of cases of small-school players excelling in the NFL.
Sutton’s tape flashes plenty of big plays, athleticism, and areas he can win in the NFL. The question will be if he can continue to develop his game to be successful at the next level.
Measurables
Sutton’s athletic testing scores via Mock Draftable are one of the more intriguing aspects of his game. As you can see in the spider chart below, he excelled in nearly every category and is a fairly well-rounded athlete.
The 40-yard dash is his worst score, but he still ran a very respectable 4.54 time at the combine. What stood out most to me was the electric 6.57 time he posted in the three-cone drill.
With Sutton’s scores being so well-rounded, I was surprised to see a rather uninspiring list of top player comparisons.
While this is not necessarily a knock on his future outlook for me, it is something I will likely keep in the back in my mind come rookie draft season.
Dynasty Value
I find myself saying this about nearly every 2018 prospect besides Saquon Barkley, but Sutton’s landing spot is going to really play a factor in how I view his dynasty outlook. If a team like Dallas or San Francisco drafts him with an apparent plan to allow him to grow and develop into their lead receiver, Sutton will move up my ranks. If he goes to a team like the Packers with an established receiver already on the roster, he will likely slide a bit.
Sutton currently has a wide range of outcomes in rookie mock drafts as he was selected anywhere from fourth to tenth in the ten DLF March Rookie Mock Drafts. He sits fifth in DLF’s March Rookie ADP with a Rookie ADP of 6.20. He sits 52nd in DLF’s March Startup ADP with a Startup ADP of 53.17 (near players like Devin Funchess, Will Fuller, LeSean McCoy and Carlos Hyde).
The highest I envision him climbing in actual rookie drafts is into the second slot if he lands in a dream situation while the top running back prospects do not. With an unfavorable landing spot, I could see him tumble to the 1.07-1.10 range depending on how the owners in the league feel about him.
Conclusion
Sutton is a bit of an enigma, but so are many other players in this class. Regardless, he is one of the few receivers in this class who has the potential to become a lead receiver for a team. The question is, do you think he will ever reach his potential?
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- Devy Roundup: Week 14 - November 26, 2019
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- Devy Roundup: Week 12 - November 12, 2019
