FanDuel Bargains: Conference Championship Weekend
Welcome back to the FanDuel value article for the main slate. Every week (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry. As always, we are concerned specifically with Grand Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments, which means these players offer higher upside but potentially lower floors.
The playoffs are a different kind of animal for me especially as I prefer larger slates. For this article, I’ll still be focusing on value players from a price, projection and matchup perspective. Value players, by nature, are meant to help lineup construction by freeing up cap for a lineup elsewhere. Ideally, as GPP plays, they also big have upside (and downside) and often rely on volume or unique opportunity due to circumstance. Depending on how you construct your lineup their viability can change.
If you love playing daily fantasy football, remember you can get an annual subscription to DLF (a $29.99 value) by just signing up for FanDuel and depositing your initial $10 through this link.
Note: I use 4for4.com’s Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) to determine defensive rankings and projections. Pro-football-reference.com is a constant source of raw stats when judging matchups. I often refer to other metrics often from www.sharpfootballstats.com and Airyards.com.
Quarterback
Blake Bortles, QB JAC ($7600)
Line: -8.5 NE
O/U: 46.5
OPP: NE
Blake Bortles is the only player at the position who shows up as a value form a price/projections standpoint this week. He is priced as the QB3 on the week but projects to finish as the second-highest scoring quarterback according to 4for4.com. That is probably as big a margin as we can hope for on a two-game slate.
New England finished the year as the sixth-worst matchup for quarterbacks despite being a below-average defense all season according to aFPA. But on such a small slate, and in the playoffs when matchups can be much more fluid and unpredictable, I’m willing to ignore that. Vegas has the match as a blowout win for New England with them projected to score 31.75 points of the 46.5 total. But Vegas lines are best judged as an indication of what most people think. If New England is going to run away with this game, it means that passing volume may have to increase leading to more scoring opportunities.
Other options: None
Running Back
James White, RB NE ($4800)
Line: -8.5
O/U: 48 NE
OPP: JAX
Well, it worked last week. But these aren’t based on individual analysis subject to those kinds of narrative mistakes. James White is the biggest value based on price/projections standpoint. 4for.4.com’s projections are based on trends and usage as much as anything else, not narratives. Priced as the RB11 on the week, he is projected to finish as the seventh-highest scoring player at the position. While the New England running back position is notoriously difficult to predict, White has seen usage in a very interesting area of the field for this.
According to www.sharpfootballstats.com, White has accounted for 9% of targets to the short-middle and 14% of targets to the short-left. This is an area of the field where Jacksonville was exploited through the season including their week 16 loss to the 49ers-who utilized Kyle Juszczyk and George Kittle in this area to the tune of a combined eight receptions on eight targets for 118 yards and a touchdown. While Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola also have decent usage in this area, White offers a cheap option to gain access to the New England offense.
Other options: Latavius Murray ($6900)
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs, WR MIN ($6700)
Line: -3
O/U: 38.5 MIN
OPP: PHI
Stefon Diggs is almost sure to be popular after the Minnesota miracle last week. But priced as the WR4 this week, he is projected to finish as the highest-scoring receiver by 4for4.com. He has one of the best matchups this week up against a Philadelphia defense that ranked 23rd in aFPA against the position.
What’s more, outside of his game-saving walk-off touchdown last week, he also led the team with ten targets and six receptions. Back to full health, Minnesota may be back to a 1a and 1b receiver set up instead of Adam Thielen being the clear target leader as happened down the latter half of the season. Still, Diggs is priced $700 lower than Thielen and is a good value for a week with limited options.
Other options:Â Marqise Lee ($6100), Jarius Wright ($4900), Mack Hollins ($4500)
Tight End
Marcedes Lewis, TE JAX ($4500)
Line: -8.5
O/U: 46.5 NE
OPP: NE
The price/projection breakdown is telling us to pick out our favorite tight end or plug-in Marcedes Lewis. Priced as the TE5 behind Trey Burton, he doesn’t have to do much of anything to outperform his cost. However, the chances of Lewis meeting his expected points based on his salary are lower than him breaking his price rank. But unless one of the more expensive guys goes for two touchdowns, on a small game slate, a single touchdown from Lewis could unbalance everything in our favor.
With a 10% target share and a 7.3% target share inside the red zone, we know Lewis has been a viable option for Bortles before like this three-touchdown game against Baltimore early in the season. It’s the best shot in the dark if you build your lineup in such a way that you have to save cap at the position.
Other options: None
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
- Peter Howard: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained - March 6, 2024
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 15 - December 23, 2023
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 14 - December 16, 2023
