2017 IDP Projections: New York Giants
I believe that to properly analyze the 2017 IDPs you need to have an idea of how they’ll ALL perform so you can benchmark and compare them effectively. So I built a model using past performance, efficiency, scheme information and coaching tendencies to predict what will happen in 2017. I’ve applied that to my best estimates for how teams will use players this year which gives a projection and ranking for all IDPs. You can read more about what I did and how here.
Notes
There’s plenty of both good and bad here. First of all, it’s a great opportunity for Giants players given the stat keepers. The Giants were far and away the top team last year in handing out solo tackles per tackle opportunity. In real terms, that means they were more inclined to give a solo and an assist after any given play whereas other crews might give two assists. Clearly this is an advantage.
Having said that, it’s an unstable situation. In 2016 they assembled a lot of expensive talent and it magically all came together for them. At their best they were amongst the very best defenses in the league last season. Whether that continues or not, we’ll have to wait and see.
On top of that, the Giants also have a very unusual approach to talent at the linebacker position. Similar to the Packers, they like to use various players at different times rather than rely on their starters to stay on the field. It goes without saying this is not good news for us IDP players.
Stars
As most people who know me are aware, Big Snacks is one of my favourite players in the NFL. He’s the best in the league at just throwing bodies around like a Transformer in a car chase. He’s not a pass rusher primarily, but his absurd production in the running game boosts him up to #7 in my tackle rankings.
Key stats: 553 snaps, 37 solo tackles, 24 assists, one sack, one pass defended.
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Last year he was the most valuable IDP in the league, and although I do expect some drop in efficiency on a personal level, the model still has him as the #1 safety in 2017 by a significant distance. I don’t think I’d pay for him at current prices but he’s clearly an elite asset in IDP leagues.
Key stats: 1,098 snaps, 90 solo tackles, 27 assists, two sacks, 11 passes defended, three interceptions
Starters
The man with three and a half fingers on his right hand is up at #13 in my rankings, and that might be undercooking it. In 2016, JPP and his stable mate dominated all ends in snaps for a significant portion of the season (Deforest Buckner was the only one close). Traditionally Steve Spagnuolo has not done that, but it’s absolutely possible that JPP gets a much bigger snap load than I have down here.
Key stats: 681 snaps, 33 solo tackles, 14 assists, eight sacks, six passes defended.
Olivier Vernon, DE
As above, the big question is: does Spags try and keep Vernon and JPP on the field the whole time again? If so, then they could both be elite players, but he traditionally hasn’t done it. Assuming this level of activity I have Vernon as my #15 end.
Key stats: 776 snaps, 40 solo tackles, 19 assists, four sacks, one pass defended.
Janoris Jenkins, CB
I was sure Jenkins would take his foot off the gas after his big payday and his gambles in coverage would show him up. He confounded me by putting together an excellent season, which means he’s heading for a heavy season of work. Normally a very good number one corner is a bad IDP option, but his ability to put hands on the ball will counter that to some extent. He’s my #11 corner.
Key stats: 922 snaps, 48 solo tackles, six assists, one sack, 16 passes defended, three interceptions.
Useful
Dalvin Tomlinson, DT
Okay, he’s not really that useful unless you play in very league DT-premium leagues – I’ve got the rookie down at my #30 tackle, but it’s absolutely possible he does much better given opposing attention will be on Snacks and the bookend ends around him. This is a high-potential spot.
Key stats: 730 snaps, 22 solo tackles, 13 assists, three sacks, one pass defended.
BJ Goodson, LB
Ugh. I hate the Giants’ approach to linebackers – similar to the Packers, they chop and change all the time. We fans are always waiting for a clear “starter” to emerge but in reality this is what it is. Several players will play and none of them will be good enough to be a prime IDP asset. Goodson is my #57 linebacker and I don’t want anything to do with him.
Key stats: 727 snaps, 57 solo tackles, 23 assists, one sack, six passes defended, one interception.
See above. Casillas was the best of a bad bunch last year and I think is their best coverage linebacker but I don’t want to be starting him. He’s my #69 option at the position.
Key stats: 630 snaps, 48 solo tackles, 27 assists, one sack, six passes defended, one interception.
Devon Kennard, LB
There’s nothing to see here. I just included him to show just how desperate the Giants linebacker situation is. He’s down at #87.
Key stats: 463 snaps, 40 solo tackles, 19 assists, one sack, three passes defended, one interception.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB
I expect DRC to play in the slot this season, but he’s good enough to make that fairly useful in the Giants’ scheme. He’s up at #34 for me – although you can probably stream options to be more productive.
Key stats: 632 snaps, 40 solo tackles, nine assists, one sack, 14 passes defended three interceptions.
Summary
That was a bit mixed, wasn’t it? There are three fantastic players on the D line and the top safety in IDP, but that’s balanced by the glaring swamp of disappointment that is their linebacker corps. I’d love to tell you which one to pick there, but it’s my abject belief that none of them is a good option for you. This of course means we’ll all want them to draft one high next year – and we’ll be disappointed again. This circle of misery makes me feel like a fantasy Sisyphus.
Those are my predictions as of right now. Obviously things will change as we get a better idea of who will play and how going towards the season. If you disagree with any assertions here feel free to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter (@TomDegenerate) and I’ll be happy to discuss.
Thanks for reading.
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