Up until this point, Bowl Season has been filled with prospects who are solid, but most don’t have a ton of name recognition to the average fan. This is usually around the time when that starts to change, with potential top ten pick Josh Allen having played yesterday, and Rashaad Penny playing today, who finished fifth in the Heisman.
Production
To finish fifth in the Heisman, a player has to have a pretty productive year. Penny did just that, rushing for 2027 yards on 275 carries (7.4 ypc) and 19 touchdowns. While Penny was stuck behind 2016 fourth pick Donnel Pumphrey for the past few years, he was still able to be productive last year in a limited capacity, rushing for just over 1000 yards and 11 touchdowns on just 135 carries (7.4 ypc again).
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He hasn’t been an extremely productive receiver over the course of his career, managing just 41 catches in four seasons. However, while his raw numbers might now be eye-popping, his market share numbers show that he’s a more than capable pass-catcher. This year he had a dominator rating of .11, and last season he had a dominator rating of .13. Both of these numbers are solid enough numbers for a running back to post, which leads me to believe he’ll have no problem staying on the field on third down in the NFL.
He’s also one of the best kick returners in NCAA history. Only one other player has over 2300 kick return yards and seven return touchdowns in their career, while only 11 others have averaged over 30 yards per kick return in their career.
As a Recruit
Coming out of high school, Penny wasn’t a super highly-regarded player. He was a low-end three star, but had just four offers: from San Diego State, Fresno State, Utah State, and UNLV. He did get looked at by Washington, but I would assume that was only because his brother played for them. Penny wasn’t expected to be a star as a recruit, but he has defied the odds to do just that.
Measurables
Penny is listed at 5’11”, 220 pounds. This is an ideal size for a running back, as it allows him to be big enough to run between the tackles while still maintaining good lateral movement. Penny’s speed has been on display throughout the year, particularly as a kick returner.
However, in high school Penny didn’t look like he had blazing speed. He ran an 11.20 in the 100 meter dash, and while that’s faster than what I would ever hope to run it’s in just the 55th percentile of all college running backs. He did however run a 4.68 forty yard dash at Nike’s the Opening, good enough to place in the 80th percentile of all high school backs.
If he does weigh in around 220 to 225 pounds, I would want him to run a high 4.4 to a low 4.5 in the forty at the combine. I do think that Penny will be lacking in explosive categories such as the broad jump and vertical jump. Penny’s 30.6 vertical jump was good for just the 52nd percentile of all running backs, and his long jump and triple jump score are good for only the 20th and 18th percentile respectively.
Draft Projection
This year’s running back crop is top-heavy, with players like Saquon Barkley, Derrius Guice, and Nick Chubb all having a shot at cracking the first round. I would think Penny would fall just inside the top ten at the position for a team looking to take him, which historically leads me to believe he’ll be taken somewhere in the third round.
However, like I said this year’s class is top-heavy and falls off drastically after the first four or five backs, which could lead Penny to drop to the fourth or even the fifth round if he tests poorly.
Overall Analysis
I think Penny will definitely be able to carve out a role as an NFL player, solely because of his kick return ability. Even if he doesn’t end up becoming a successful running back in the league he’ll be able to have a lengthy career because of this skill. However, I do think he’ll have a solid career as a back. I don’t view him as a starter, or even a lead back in a committee.
Ideally he’d be a third back for a team that could handle the load if one of their lead backs got hurt, or he’s a back with a lesser role in a committee. His lack of explosiveness and slightly average agility are two things that I think will hurt him at the next level.
Overall, Penny is a player I won’t look to target in rookie drafts because I don’t think he’ll have a huge impact for fantasy players. He’s a better player in real life than he will be for dynasty players and unless I can snag him in the fourth round of rookie drafts or he falls into a tremendous situation after testing well I probably won’t own many shares of him.
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Respectfully disagree with this take. I watch the tape and see a potential steal. I think he will be a really good NFL RB and an impact ff player. i will be targeting him in every rookie draft this year.
