32 Teams, 32 Questions: The AFC East
It’s training camp time, which means we get to see all 32 teams doing something at least relatively meaningful. It also means there are only a few weeks left until the rosters and depth charts are set for the start of the season. We are going to take a little trip around the league and take a look at all 32 teams and address one of the biggest fantasy questions about each of them. After all, in terms of dynasty leagues, if you aren’t thinking about these things now you’re already behind.
Let’s take a look at the AFC East, a division known for two things – dominance by the Patriots and the Bills missing the playoffs. While New England has been the class of the division for the better part of the last decade or more, there are still questions in regards to just how their players are going to be used. In addition, there are lots of other questions surrounding their counterparts in the division. Let’s spin around the AFC East and answer an important question dynasty owners about each member of the division.
New England
How will Brandin Cooks fit in?
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The Patriots stunned the NFL back in March when they traded their first round draft pick in exchange for Cooks, who seemingly fell out of favor in New Orleans after a great start to his career. The fantasy community is obviously taking a “wait and see” approach as Cooks’ ADP hasn’t moved a bit since the trade to New England. Now, he was already in the top 18 so it’s tough to move up much but owners also aren’t seeing the move as detrimental to his value either, despite Cooks moving to an offense with a similar number of weapons.
Over his three year career, Cooks has amassed 215 catches for 2,861 yards and 20 touchdowns as one of Drew Brees’ favorite targets. He’ll now join an offense where he’ll battle for targets with Julian Edelman, Malcolm Mitchell, Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola and Dwayne Allen, among others. It’s really anyone’s guess as to just how the Patriots will use Cooks. However, it’s unrealistic to think the 98/1,493/23 line Randy Moss put up in his first year in New England is in the stratosphere, despite Cooks being arguably the most talented receiver New England has had since Moss.
Conventional wisdom would make one believe Cooks will be thrown the ball when open. That sounds overly simplistic but it’s true. Tom Brady rarely shows favoritism and he has the ability to get an open player the ball better than maybe any quarterback in NFL history. He simply won’t force-feed anyone, regardless of who they are. If Gronkowski can stay healthy, it’s hard to see Cooks have a truly dominant season. However, I believe he should be more than good enough to have as a high-end WR2. If the Patriots eventually move away from Edelman and put Cooks in the slot, his numbers could still be elite. There’s also a chance things really click and get exciting in a hurry.
New York Jets
Who in the world is going to catch the football?
As I recently wrote in my breakdown of the Quincy Enunwa injury, the Jets will unbelievably go into the season featuring a receiving corps of nine players who boasted a grand total of 1,296 receiving yards last season. To put that into perspective, those NINE players had fewer yards combined last year than TY Hilton, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham and Mike Evans had on their own.
The Jets have real issues at quarterback with Josh McCown, Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty all battling it out for the job. From what we’ve seen from this group, there just isn’t a good option in fantasy or reality. The Jets will need to have players step up after losing Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker in the off-season. The most obvious choice is Robby Anderson but he’s failed to impress much in training camp. Other options for targets include ArDarius Stewart, Charone Peake, Chris Harper, Chad Hansen, Jalin Marshall, Kenbrell Tompkins and Marquess Wilson.
If I was to guess who could step up in New York, it’s actually tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who has by all accounts had a great camp. He’s suspended for the first two weeks of the season but should return as a safety valve and red zone threat (if the Jets can get that close to ever scoring). ASJ has always been a talented player but he hasn’t been able to get out of his own way. This will be the best opportunity he’s had to date and things are aligning for him to succeed. ASJ is one of the very few players on the Jets who is seeing his ADP actually rise over the past few months.
Buffalo Bills
Can Tyrod Taylor really succeed?
After Sammy Watkins was traded to the Rams, the Bills moved quickly to acquire Jordan Matthews from the Eagles. It’s hard to argue that move doesn’t help soften the blow of losing Watkins but it’s also hard to really convince yourself there isn’t a drop-off in talent from Watkins to Matthews. The 28-year old Taylor is entering his third full season as the Bills’ starter and it seems Buffalo still isn’t convinced he’s the man to build around as they’ve failed to publicly commit to him as the leader of the team or reward him as such in terms of a legitimate long-term contract with elite guaranteed money. All this comes despite Taylor throwing for over 3,000 yards each of the past two seasons and throwing 37 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions.
Taylor has the ability to be a low-end starter in dynasty leagues but it’s hard for many owners to invest too heavily in him based on the uncertainty of his future. After the Bills moved away from Watkins and seem to be rebuilding, Taylor is going to need to have a truly impressive season to keep the job. To do that, Matthews, Anquan Boldin, Zay Jones and, of course, LeSean McCoy will all have to step up. In addition, Taylor is going to need someone like Andre Holmes, Rod Streater, Charles Clay or another player down on the depth chart to emerge.
In the end, Taylor isn’t exactly being set up for success here and it’s hard to envision him being the long-term option. The Bills have acquired draft capital to move up to get one of the more heralded quarterbacks in the NFL Draft next year and it’s going to take an elite season from Taylor without a dominant receiver to stop that from happening.
Tyrod, circle the wagons!
Miami Dolphins
What will the loss of Ryan Tannehill mean to the Dolphins’ skill players?
The Dolphins have already suffered the biggest loss of the preseason with the loss of their quarterback. In response, they lured Jay Cutler out of retirement and reunited him with Head Coach Adam Gase. Cutler had his best season in Chicago with Gase as the Offensive Coordinator but he is who he is. Cutler isn’t going to change at age 34 and we know he’s going to take unnecessary risks and turn the ball over. For every dominant game he’ll have, the chance of a total clunker will always be in the mix for the next game. Simply put, he’s a riverboat gambler in the purest sense.
Over his 11-year career, Cutler has averaged 233 passing yards per game. In his five years in Miami, Tannehill has averaged right around 239. While it’s not exactly comparing apples to apples here as each of them have played in different offenses and have had different skill players, the drop-off shouldn’t be as extreme as some think. The real problem for Miami is going to be when and if Cutler gets hurt again. After all, he’s played in all 16 games just three times in his career and hasn’t put together a full season since 2009.
My best guess is the Dolphins skill players aren’t going to be affected too much at first. Cutler has the arm talent to get players like DeVante Parker and Jarvis Landry the ball. He also doesn’t have a high learning curve in the offense, which should help a lot. My biggest concern isn’t the drop-off from Tannehill to Cutler, it’s the drop-off between Cutler and Matt Moore, who will unquestionably make starts at some point this season. We just haven’t seen enough of Moore in this offense to feel confident and the fact the Dolphins turned quickly to Cutler shows they don’t exactly have faith in him, either. If Moore has to make more than a few starts, there’s a great chance the Miami skill players will all suffer.
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Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
