Devil’s Tradevocate
Twitter, polls, and dynasty trades are the perfect combination to see the up-to-date value of players being traded on the open market. The trade itself shows what one person is willing to make a move for another asset, and the poll will indicate how close the trade is based off of “market value”.
In this series, Dan Sainio and Nathan Powell will evaluate trades that appeared lopsided (65% or more votes on one side) and one of us will state the case for why it was a lopsided trade while the other takes the devil’s advocate point of view, arguing for the side with the fewest votes.
Ryan Tannehill, Corey Davis and a 2018 first
for
Dak Prescott, Emmanuel Sanders and a 2018 fourth
Result: Corey Davis side wins with 79%
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Why Twitter is right: Occasionally, the Twitter masses do get a trade poll correct. This happens to be one of those times. There are very few folks who are higher on Dak Prescott than I, but I just don’t see the value here. This screams “panicking contender” to me.
While I would prefer Prescott to Davis as the best piece in the deal, the rest of the package makes up for the gap. Davis is just a rookie, but he has sky high potential. Plus, dynasty is ruled by young receivers with elite upside, even if it is a 2QB format. Sanders is a win now piece that I really like for 2017, coming off three straight 1,000 yard seasons, but he’s barely worth a random first.
While Tannehill may be done for the season, after the convincing contract dished out to Cutler, he still has plenty left in the tank. He’s no Dak Prescott, or even close to a QB1, but Tanny is more than serviceable and carries a solid valuation in 2QB leagues. We have watched him get better each year, until an injury cut his 2016 campaign short as well. So the risk, here, seems to fall on Tannehill and whether or not he can get healthy and back on the field. Also, he has no guarantees to be with the Dolphins beyond this season as they can cut the remaining three years of his contract following this season. Still, the value is there and he’s basically a throw in. Twitter did well this time around. – Dan
Devil’s Tradevocate: An injury to a starting quarterback will always leave 2QBers scrambling, particularly one that expects to result in a full missed season. Based on market value, Corey Davis and Dak Prescott cancel each other out. Davis is the 1.01 and going in the late second/early third of startups, a player who is projected to become a top eight type dynasty wide receiver as the career of the fifth overall pick in the 2018 draft develops.
Prescott had a great rookie season that ended in a QB6 season, many expect some regression because he was in an ideal scenario with a elite running back and offensive line, but I don’t see either of those things changing soon, along with a hopefully healthier Dez Bryant. A young quarterback who projects to be a high quality starter for five-plus years in a 2QB is a highly valuable asset, and knowing the future of one of your two quarterback spots allows you to invest your premium assets at the other positions.
The rest of the deal is where it becomes harder to defend the Prescott side. An optimistic valuation of Emmanuel Sanders makes him worth a late first round rookie pick, which essentially means that the other side is getting Tannehill for free, however if the Dolphins finish with a top ten draft pick with Jay Cutler under center, the Dolphins could certainly invest that top ten pick at the quarterback position, which would make trading Tannehill away for free not that big of a loss. – Nathan
Allen Robinson and Isaiah Crowell
for
Result: Julio Jones side wins with 68%
Why Twitter is right: Wait, Twitter got two of these right? Well done, folks. I’m going to do my best to keep personal feelings about each player out of this one, but I can’t promise you anything. With that being said, let’s dive in.
Julio Jones is a top dynasty asset, and will remain there for the foreseeable future unless he pulls a Calvin Johnson with an early retirement. Jones has been a WR1 for four straight seasons in which he has played at least 14 games.
On the other side of this, we look at Allen Robinson and Isaiah Crowell. Robinson was underwhelming as a rookie, then exploded in 2015 as a garbage time superstar alongside Blake Bortles. When 2016 rolled around, they both came spiraling back to earth. Robinson posted a line of 80-1400-12 on 151 targets in 2015, and received the same number of targets in 2016 but only managed 73-883-6. We expect regression after a monster season, but that was gross. Robinson has been sliding down boards like crazy, and while I’m not a big fan of “selling low,” we may see the bottom truly fall out. It also isn’t really selling low, but 2015 isn’t Robinson. He’s somewhere between 2015 and 2016 – a solid young WR, but he’s no Julio.
Isaiah Crowell has been an off-season favorite of the twitter elites, he continues to get more and more work each season as we see his carries and targets continue to rise. I’m just not sure how much more room there is to grow. The Browns have a long way to go before they can try to rely on the run, so I don’t see a path to getting Crowell any further than a low end RB2. Right now he’s coming off the board at RB14, according to ADP. No thanks, sell high! This is an elite asset in exchange for an accurately valued WR2 and an overhyped, overpriced, RB2. Julio, no contest. – Dan
Devil’s Tradevocate: There will be people who say age is overrated or that we call for decline of elite wide receivers like Julio Jones at the age of 28 years old too soon, but I also think Twitter is now overrating the gap in ability between Robinson and Jones. Robinson was one of the best wide receivers in the NFL during his sophomore campaign in 2015 and I think he rebounds to that level of play during the final year of his contract in 2017. If Robinson returns to form, you get a long term WR1 who is 4.5 years younger than Jones.
In addition to the age gap, you get a solid RB2 in Isaiah Crowell. Even if you aren’t a believer in Crowell or the Browns offense, the hype around Crowell this off-season should allow you to flip him for a late first round rookie pick or a player of similar value. – Nathan
Christian McCaffrey and two 2018 firsts
for
Melvin Gordon, Jordan Matthews and Jamaal Williams
Result: Christian McCaffrey side wins with 67%
Why Twitter is right: As is the case with all Twitter trades where future firsts are involved, where these picks land can shift the value drastically one way or the other but without the info of early or late, I always assume random or mid.
Breaking down this trade into smaller parts, McCaffrey may not have the proven play of Melvin Gordon, but McCaffrey and a first is worth more than Melvin Gordon and Jamaal Williams by a good amount, while Jordan Matthews and the other 2018 first cancel each other out in value, making the Mccaffrey side the side that you want on your team. – Nathan
Devil’s Tradevocate: I get the new shiny toy feeling, and the everlasting love of first round rookie picks, but come on. Give me the proven talent, along with the proven production (plus there is technically a new shiny toy with Williams) every day of the week.
We can lock in Melvin Gordon as a high end RB1 in the tier immediately following the big three. His team continues to show their commitment to him, and he’ll continue to produce at a high rate. Jordan Matthews is going to be able to make his move back to the slot, where he thrives. I’m comfortable penciling in 80-1000-8 for JMatt in 2017, and for however long they keep him around, in the slot. [Update: Dan says his prediction and argument is still valid with Matthews making the move to Buffalo.]
The addition of Jamaal Williams here makes this comfortable for me. Williams is turning heads in camp, and will continue to separate himself from the depth as the Packers’ RB2. Yes, he’s stuck behind Ty Montgomery at the moment, but he’s built to be a workhorse in the NFL. The way I see it is CMC/first = Gordon, first = JMatt, and Williams comes for free. Thank you, sir, may I have another? – Dan
for
Lamar Miller and Jamison Crowder
Result: 66% for Leonard Fournette
Why Twitter is right: Twitter can often get caught up in the rookie hype machine and overvalues rookies, but I don’t think that is the case here. Fournette is one of the best running back prospects in recent memory, going off the board in the NFL with the fourth overall pick.
Miller and Crowder may have NFL success that Fournette doesn’t have, but I don’t think either player has the type of ceiling that Fournette has and Miller and Crowder saw competition join their depth charts this off-season with D’Onta Foreman and Terrelle Pryor respectively, lowering the fantasy floor of both players. – Nathan
Devil’s Tradevocate: This is a tough one, as I see it as close to even. However, we aren’t here to tie. We are here to win. Lamar Miller is an RB1 with an RB2 price tag, and should be on your “buy” radar. Miller managed more than 1,200 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns last year playing with Brock freaking Osweiler at the helm. The Houston offense was atrocious last year, and Lamar still produced a rock solid season. Miller doesn’t need a million touches to produce big numbers, so even if Foreman vultures some carries it shouldn’t hurt his bottom line. Especially considering Miller’s value in the passing game.
Throw in the value of Jamison Crowder here, who has been rocketing up draft boards, and you’ve got yourself a nice return for an overvalued rookie. Crowder was a beast from the slot in 2016, posting a top 24 WR season on only 99 targets. While the addition of Pryor likely hurts the upside for 2017, I don’t see any change in his floor. Like I stated before, this is a pretty even deal from a value standpoint, but I’m more than comfortable taking the young proven production over the rookie. – Dan
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