FFPC $1,500 Start-up Draft Review
Editor’s Note: Our coverage of the FFPC’s high-stakes dynasty format continues! The FFPC games are unlike any other in the industry due to their reputation and visibility in the space. From their first introduction in 2010, they only continue to gain in popularity.
This is the last installment of our 2017 FFPC draft coverage.
DLF and the FFPC are partners once again in 2017 and we’re covering live drafts to be used as another source of reference for your own drafts. The thought here is that the “high stakes” element brings with it a high degree of fantasy coaching experience and performance. These coaches are putting serious money on the line with the hope of greater payouts at the end of the rainbow and you can bet most put a lot of work and research into each selection. With this particular FFPC dynasty league requiring a $250 entry fee, there’s little room for mistakes.
This review is for a $1,500 12-team start-up draft. Standard scoring Point Per Reception (PPR) format with the exception that tight ends receive 1.5 PPR. Passing touchdowns are worth the standard four points while rushing and receiving touchdowns bring six points each. Starting rosters are as follows: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF/ST. One note about the FFPC Dynasty format: Each team has 20 total roster spots with one each given to kickers and Defense. At the end of each year, teams must drop four players to reach a total of 16 total players. This makes for a relatively shallow roster with emphasis on productive players.
You can see all of the rules at MYFFPC.com.
If you’re ready to step up to the most serious dynasty competition on the planet, we highly suggest you check out the FFPC Dynasty Games!
For this review, I’ll be listing ten rounds of selections with a brief summary following each round. In addition, I’ll provide my assessment each round as to which picks I believe represent the best value and biggest reach when applicable.
Let’s dive in!
Round One
1.01 Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL
1.02 David Johnson, RB ARI
1.03 Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
1.04 Odell Beckham, WR NYG
1.05 Mike Evans, WR TB
1.06 Amari Cooper, WR OAK
1.07 Antonio Brown, WR PIT
1.08 Julio Jones, WR ATL
1.09 Leonard Fournette, RB JAX
1.10 Melvin Gordon, RB SDC
1.11 A.J. Green, WR CIN
1.12 Jordan Howard, RB CHI
Summary
A bit surprised to see Elliott selected ahead of Johnson, but not so much as to pound my fist on the table. My biggest fear is in Elliott’s increasing knucklehead factor but at only 22 years of age, he has plenty of time to pull up before he hits the mountain. Johnson is still the clear 1.01 on my board but any of the big three could be selected here. This is the highest I’ve seen Amari Cooper selected and it’s a premium considering his performance thus far. That said, there’s no arguing his upside and maturity and this year should be he his best yet. At only 23 year old, this is obviously a play to secure a top receiver for a ten year run. Also happy to see Fournette selected at 1.09. I’m very high on him and the value is about right in my book.
Best Value: Antonio Brown. This is a function of age as the 29 year old receiver isn’t a spring chicken any longer and in dynasty leagues, he is starting to slip, if only a bit. Brown has the size to be dominant for another four years and in fantasy terms, that is a very long time.
Biggest Reach: None
Round Two
2.01 Todd Gurley, RB LAR
2.02 Brandin Cooks, WR NE
2.03 DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
2.04 Travis Kelce, TE KC
2.05 Michael Thomas, WR NO
2.06 T.Y. Hilton, WR IND
2.07 Corey Davis, WR TEN
2.08 Dez Bryant, WR DAL
2.09 Allen Robinson, WR JAX
2.10 Christian McCaffrey, RB CAR
2.11 Rob Gronkowski, TE NE
2.12 Joe Mixon, RB CIN
Summary
This is a good looking round two for a dynasty draft. A good mix of veteran and younger-player selection. No real surprises here though Christian McCaffrey is a risky selection in the second round. Until we see how he’ll be used, I’d much rather bank on a more defined (in role) player, even if a rookie. The selection of Corey Davis is also a bold move. He’s got the size and ability I like but in the second round, a bust can be very impactful in a start-up draft. Todd Gurley at 2.01 is about right and this year will go a long way to restore confidence in his ability or he’ll continue to fade in value.
Best Value: None
Biggest Reach: None but the selections of McCaffrey and Davis are too bold a move for me. That said, bold moves that pay off will pay dividends for a long time.
Round Three
3.01 Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
3.02 Dalvin Cook, RB MIN
3.03 Devonta Freeman, RB ATL
3.04 LeSean McCoy, RB BUF
3.05 Hunter Henry, TE LAC
3.06 Jay Ajayi, RB MIA
3.07 Keenan Allen, WR LAC
3.08 Alshon Jeffery, WR PHI
3.09 Davante Adams, WR GB
3.10 Derrick Henry, RB TEN
3.11 Jarvis Landry, WR MIA
3.12 Jordan Reed, TE WAS
Summary
The third round is where things begin to break and we can more clearly see strategy play out. Those looking to win now will do so with names such as LeSean McCoy while those looking to build will covet rookie and sophomore players. Here we see a mix of known production and youthful upside. A couple of names stand out here in round three which I’ll speak about below.
Best Value: Devonta Freeman. There’s a lot to like about Freeman here. Now 25, Freeman was the RB6 in 2016 and he’s got the ability to push higher in ’17. The presence of Tevin Coleman does provide some threat to touches but there’s just too much upside to ignore and I see him as steal in the third round. And this coming from someone who was a skeptic to begin 2016.
Biggest Reach: Sammy Watkins. Putting my money where my mouth (fingers?) are, I’ve sold all shares in Sammy Watkins due to injury and situational concerns. I’m not confident that he’ll find greener pastures with his next team either. If he can finish the 2017 campaign healthy and near a WR12 or better finish in productivity, I’ll revisit my valuation. Until then, too much hype and not enough follow-through.
Round Four
4.01 Tyler Eifert, TE CIN
4.02 Jordy Nelson, WR GB
4.03 O.J. Howard, TE TB
4.04 Stefon Diggs, WR MIN
4.05 Lamar Miller, RB HOU
4.06 DeMarco Murray, RB TEN
4.07 Corey Coleman, WR CLE
4.08 Andrew Luck, QB IND
4.09 Doug Baldwin, WR SEA
4.10 Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN
4.11 DeVante Parker, WR MIA
4.12 Mike Williams, WR LAC
Summary
Like previous drafts, I’m finding I’m not a fan of round four selections in new start-up drafts. This is not an indictment of this group of coaches and, in fact, this round’s selections are a measure better than I’ve seen in other drafts. But when those lines between production, upside and risk are drawn, you want to be able to find value in other places rather than force selections. Round four is clearly the round I’m targeting to trade out for picks later or … to move up from for another pick in rounds one or two.
When looking at the names, you find advanced age or significant risk of non-production. There is intrigue available here as well, but I just don’t care for the risk-reward.
Best Value: Doug Baldwin. At 28 years of age and 2016’s WR6, Baldwin continues to be unappreciated. He’s got years left and finished 60 fantasy points below Antonio Brown. Considering his selection here in the round four, that’s a phenomenal value that should have blue sky in front of him again this year.
Biggest Reach: Stefon Diggs. He’s young but he has the look of a receiver that will continue to fade from view in fantasy, at least as anything more than a WR3 candidate. I own no shares of Diggs and won’t until I see much more consistency. His WR26 status was largely due to a three week run of 20+ fantasy points before underwhelming in the remaining six weeks of the 2016 season.
Round Five
5.01 Evan Engram, TE NYG
5.02 Greg Olsen, TE CAR
5.03 Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
5.04 Donte Moncrief, WR IND
5.05 David Njoku, TE CLE
5.06 Tevin Coleman, RB ATL
5.07 Zach Ertz, TE PHI
5.08 Terrelle Pryor, WR WAS
5.09 Eric Ebron, TE DET
5.10 Tyreek Hill, WR KC
5.11 Michael Crabtree, WR OAK
5.12 Kareem Hunt, RB KC
Summary
This round exemplifies what I was saying about the risk of round four. Some names are still risk-on here, but better names are beginning to emerge, those that I prefer to have on my roster. And if this draft is like others, this trend will continue into round six, making for a great trade-up opportunity for those looking to move up for a coveted player. Or dangle this selection for an additional pick in following rounds. I do some of my best drafting in rounds six through ten and there’s enough intrigue here to be excited about.
Best Value: Tyreek Hill. You are either a fan or are not and, thus, you will agree with me here or you’ll think I’ve a few cows short of a full herd. I love Hill’s ability and role. He’s the centerpiece of the offense and with Jeremy Maclin now in Baltimore, he should see even more touches. Hill was only the WR20 in 2016, but keep in mind that as a raw and unheralded rookie, he didn’t begin producing in earnest until the second half of the season. Project that average forward to a full season and Hill vies for WR4, give or take. You can make the argument that defenses are now aware of his ability and without Maclin to receive attention, the yards will be harder to come by in 2017. We’ll see.
Biggest Reach: Evan Engram. I am a fan of Engram but until we see his usage and production, I can’t advocate a pick this high. Tight ends are notorious for having long integration periods and Engram is raw and in an offense with many mouths to feed. I like bold moves, but this one is too bold for me.
Round Six
6.01 Alvin Kamara, RB NO
6.02 Jamison Crowder, WR WAS
6.03 Golden Tate, WR DET
6.04 Samaje Perine, RB WAS
6.05 Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE
6.06 Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN
6.07 Josh Doctson, WR WAS
6.08 Randall Cobb, WR GB
6.09 Derek Carr, QB OAK
6.10 Marshawn Lynch, RB OAK
6.11 Carlos Hyde, RB SF
6.12 D’Onta Foreman, RB HOU
Summary
Round six is where things begin getting more interesting and coaches build out on their initial plans for team build. In some cases, strategies may change after rounds three through five as unexpected players rise and fall. I’m a fervent believer of not forcing a strategy as a draft unfolds. I enter each draft with a plan on structure and build based upon format and scoring, but it’s not uncommon for extreme value to change my plans.
In this round, we’re seeing a mix of production and rookie selections. Rookie backs Kamara, Perine and Foreman are off the board. I find when this occurs, it’s usually at the hands of a positional run that leaves teams thin and a position thinner. When looking at the bust rate of running backs selected out of the first round, selections of situational backs Perine and Foreman are very risky selections.
Best Value: Isaiah Crowell. Crowell is still young and he’s undervalued in a backfield that needs what he brings. Consider the value gap between Crowell at 6.05 and that of D’Onta Foreman at 6.12. Very significant.
Biggest Reach: D’onta Foreman. I like Foreman more than most but in the sixth round, it’s an extreme reach with other starting and younger-veteran backs still on the board. But that is what it is all about for all of us as drafts unfold.
Round Seven
7.01 Juju Smith-Schuster, WR PIT
7.02 Martavis Bryant, WR PIT
7.03 Julian Edelman, WR NE
7.04 John Ross, WR CIN
7.05 Ty Montgomery, RB GB
7.06 Kevin White, WR CHI
7.07 Jameis Winston, QB TB
7.08 Paul Perkins, RB NYG
7.09 Ameer Abdullah, RB DET
7.10 C.J. Anderson, RB DEN
7.11 Zay Jones, WR BUF
7.12 Joe Williams, RB SF
Summary
The seventh round is where we usually start seeing second-tier quarterbacks off the board. I rarely select one prior to round eight, but I always look for the start of the run. In some cases it starts here late in round seven but based on depth, sometimes as late as round eight. In this draft going into a year where the second tier of quarterbacks is rather deep, it’s not a shock to see that it appears the run will start in round eight, with the exception being Jameis Winston at 7.07.
Outside of the quarterback position, tight ends continue to fall for much the same reason, a deep second and third tier leave little reason to lead out with a selection until the run starts. Manage your pick placement well though, especially if you find your self early/late in a round with two picks in close proximity to one another. If you find yourself 20+ selections away when a run begins, you likely won’t be invited to the party. Sometimes this is okay but don’t force a selection as a knee-jerk reaction.
Best Value: Martavis Bryant. I often times like to minimize risk in the first eight rounds of a draft, prioritizing players that suggest strong production with a long career ahead. Sometimes external events provide an intriguing risk-reward opportunity. Normally I steer clear of drug abuse but the situation of Bryant screams high-ceiling and high floor. In the seventh round in a prolific passing offense, I like the selection and value.
Biggest Reach: Zay Jones. I don’t mind the pick of Jones but I do believe it is a couple rounds too early. The bigger issue here is that a selection of Jones in the seventh means that you feel he will rise to a level not seen in Buffalo for some time. Sammy Watkins is the most dynamic receiver we’ve seen in Buffalo and it’s likely going to end after this year. Buffalo just doesn’t produce impact players at the receiver position.
Round Eight
8.01 Tom Brady, QB NE
8.02 Gerald Everett, TE LAR
8.03 Russell Wilson, QB SEA
8.04 Jimmy Graham, TE SEA
8.05 Delanie Walker, TE TEN
8.06 Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
8.07 C.J. Prosise, RB SEA
8.08 Willie Snead, WR NO
8.09 Martellus Bennett, TE GB
8.10 Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI
8.11 Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN
8.12 Cam Newton, QB CAR
Summary
Here come the quarterbacks and tight ends with a total of seven off the board. I like the names here in this round so keep these players in mind as you build out your team. I’m finding this to be relatively typical this year.
Best Value: Willie Snead. Brandin Cooks is now in New England likely due to the emergence of Michael Thomas and Willie Snead in 2016. Snead’s targets is sure to rise as he’ll see time both on the outside and in the slot. In PPR formats, he should be a fine producer and he’s young enough to produce for a long period of time. I think Snead well outplays this selection.
Biggest Reach: Gerald Everett. I do like Everett’s prospects for seeing field time early but tight ends bust at a very large rate when not selected in the first round and they also carry a very long integration period before being productive. Combine that with the fact that the position is the easiest to add during the season as new names emerge, there’s little reason for his selection this early. But, in his defense, he’s going to see field time early and this coach is likely intrigued by that prospect.
Round Nine
9.01 Jamaal Williams, RB GB
9.02 Kirk Cousins, QB WAS
9.03 Marlon Mack, RB IND
9.04 Cameron Meredith, WR CHI
9.05 Eddie Lacy, RB SEA
9.06 Jack Doyle, TE IND
9.07 Mark Ingram, RB NO
9.08 Kenneth Dixon, RB BAL
9.09 Jordan Matthews, WR PHI
9.10 Breshad Perriman, WR BAL
9.11 Marcus Mariota, QB TEN
9.12 Austin Hooper, TE ATL
Summary
Make note, the quarterbacks are trickling in rather than flying off the board. Round nine and you are still able to knock down Cousins early in the round and Mariota late. Take a look at the remaining rounds at the end of this article, specifically at round 13 where we see other quarterback names coming off the board. Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford and Carson Wentz are all available up until that round. Given this scenario, there is little reason to force a quarterback selection earlier unless you strongly desire a better name. Quarterback value continues to slip due to parity.
Best Value: Marcus Mariota. I don’t normally mention quarterbacks as value picks but Mariota late in the ninth represents good value for a young, high-ceiling, passer. He’s young, hard working and has a young set of offensive weapons being groomed around him. A lot of upside here and a coach with Mariota can feel good about the next 3-5 years.
Biggest Reach: None. I’m okay with all the value in this round. Jamaal Williams is a borderline “reach” here but with only Ty Montgomery ahead of him on the depth chart, anything can happen and for a rookie running back not highly drafted, the thing you want most is field time early so you can assess and adjust quickly.
Round Ten
10.01 Adam Shaheen, TE CHI
10.02 Curtis Samuel, WR CAR
10.03 Doug Martin, RB TB
10.04 Spencer Ware, RB KC
10.05 Drew Brees, RB NO
10.06 John Brown, WR ARI
10.07 Bilal Powell, RB NYJ
10.08 Frank Gore, RB IND
10.09 Mike Gillislee, RB NE
10.10 James Conner, RB PIT
10.11 Julius Thomas, TE MIA
10.12 Chris Godwin, WR TB
Summary
Seven of twelve selections are running backs as teams look to find value and upside in a thinning position. Some great value here with the backs, no question. There’s one name here that I think could WELL outplay his drafted position. Truth be told, there’s more than one but this round highlights that value is available if you do your homework and have a good cheat sheet to draft from.
Best Value: Bilal Powell. I love Powell for 2017 and beyond. Much like my sleeper choice of Doug Martin in 2015 when he was completely off the radar, Powell is a sleeper choice for ’17. He is a do-it-all back with aging Matt Forte’ behind him. Like Martin this year, he’s under the radar but in PPR systems, he should produce well.
Biggest Reach: Curtis Samuel. I’m just not a Samuel fan and he’s too much of a hybrid to carry this value in my opinion. That’s not to say there’s not value here, but in a start-up draft with players that have much more defined roles and production, I always suggest coaches prioritize prototypical role and production over high-risk stabs. But selections like this are what a start-up draft is all about.
Rounds 11 – 20
Recap
Now with draft season in full-swing, we’re starting to see regular trends that you can use to your advantage. Even as much as it has been over the past few years, it continues to be a receiver and running back draft early. In fact, we’re finally seeing a resurgence at the running back position. There are a full two rounds of solid, exciting and high-ceiling players. Even round three sees a majority of prolific production players with risk starting to creep in. Round four is the break between production and far more risk or age than I prefer. This means, that round four is a round that I’d be targeting a trade back from. Or, using that round’s selection as a trade-up piece if available.
In a tight end premium league, a solid pass catcher at the position can be very helpful. This is not to say that you need to select one of the top two (Kelce or Gronkowski), or even the next two (Hunter or Reed) but having an established name can bring a lot of comfort such that you don’t have to start pressing to find your starter should you miss the next run that starts in rounds five or six. I still prefer to wait until round seven IF I see enough value depth falling. Again, watch your draft position relative to the remaining depth of the position still on the board.
At the quarterback position, I see little reason to alter our strategy of allowing others to lead out at the position while you wait until round nine or ten at the earliest, perhaps now even round 12. This should allow you to construct a fine starting core while still fielding a young upside player in Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford or Dak Prescott. Even Drew Brees and Tom Brady are in this grouping as older players.
Summed up, you’ll likely be assembling a seven-player corps. consisting of running backs and receivers before filling out the remaining skill positions. A selection of a tight end by round seven could allow for multiple rounds of further receiver and running back build-out before adding your first quarterback.
Wrap-up
Well, that’s a wrap of our FFPC draft coverage for 2017. We hope you’ve found value here with these live drafts to help you toward assembling your own rankings and strategy.
Once again, we’re proud to be aligned with the FFPC for another year and are happy to suggest that any dynasty player looking for the ultimate challenge, with a nice reward to help justify your effort, check out the FFPC Dynasty Games before any other. You won’t be sad you did. They have great competition but are even greater people. It’s truly a win-win.
What are your thoughts?
Follow me on Twitter: @DLF_Jeff
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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