IDP Rookie SWOT: Jamal Adams

Name: Jamal Adams

Position: Safety

Pro Team: New York Jets

College Team: LSU

Draft Status: Round 1, Pick No. 6, overall

Video Clip

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqYUeYZZmxQ

Strengths

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• Adams has strong change of directions skills and great closing speed. In the NFL, this translates to the ability to make plays on screens and stop ball carriers in their tracks, near the line of scrimmage.
• The rookie takes intelligent paths in pursuit of ballcarriers. Too many defenders run themselves out of plays, rather than zeroing-in on the action. This small detail equates to more tackling opportunities and higher IDP scoring output.
• Unlike many defensive backs in today’s game, Adams doesn’t shy-away from contact. He’ll lower his shoulder and take on running backs and wideouts head-on, rather than attempting diving arm tackles.
• Reports out of OTAs claim Adams is calling out the Jets’ offensive plays and has already begun taking leadership of the first-team defense. These reports must be taken with a grain of salt, considering Adams is making all these plays against offensive units led by Christian Hackenberg, Bryce Petty, and Josh McCown at quarterback. Still, those reports echo the rookie’s collegiate profile and should lend confidence to IDP owners who haven’t yet held their rookie drafts.

Weaknesses

• Adams’ lack of elite long-speed — relative to most defensive backs — is noteworthy, but overblown. Ultimately, his ability to get in position will stem from his mental acuity, i.e. film study and the ability to recognize offensive strategy. We shouldn’t expect to see him matched up with the NFL’s speediest wideouts, however, Adams should see plenty of work against bigger wideouts and tight ends.
• The same willingness to put his head down and run through ball carriers can also lead Adams to miss his fair share of tackles. There were too many instances where he charged in head-first, only to bounce off a runner, allowing his mark to proceed downfield. Some of this is technique-driven and can be coached-up at the next level. Despite all this, the fact he shows such alacrity in attacking the run is still an encouraging sign, and should ultimately lead him to correct this shortcoming.
• Adams is not a “ballhawk”. Don’t expect to see a ton of interceptions, or passes defended from him over his career. Throughout his three seasons at LSU, Adams pulled down just five interceptions, and a mere 14 PBUs, in total. There are more highlights of him dropping picks, than snatching them out of the air.

Opportunities

Jets head coach, Todd Bowles — who wields significant influence on the defense — had no issue playing former-Jet Calvin Pryor on nearly 67% of the team’s plays in his 2014 rookie campaign. Prior to taking the Jets’ job, Bowles was the defensive coordinator in Arizona when Deone Bucannon logged 65% of the Cardinals’ snaps in a “money” linebacker role, as rookie in 2014.

The preceding examples show us that Bowles has no qualms allowing a rookie safety to play a meaningful number of snaps. Adams possesses an very good mix of box and coverage skills, which will keep him on the field in all downs and distances, and allow Bowles to disguise his responsibilities in New York’s defense.

The Jets opted to initiate a youth movement on defense, cutting ties with longtime leaders like David Harris and Darrelle Revis. All of this puts Adams in position to become one of the defense’s unquestioned leaders right off the bat. He will easily exceed the first-year usage of Pryor and Bucannon.

Threats

Veteran safeties Shamarko Thomas and Rontez Miles pose no threat to Adams’ fantasy viability, even in year-one. Fellow rookie Marcus Maye will have a harder time working his way into the lineup early on in the season, but should eventually join Adams as a starter. Barring injury, Adams’ path to IDP relevance is free and clear.

Short-Term Expectations

Again, the 67% snap count achieved by Pryor his rookie season is a threshold Adams should exceed. With players like Landon Collins and Keanu Neal delivering top-12 IDP output in their own rookie years, there is a precedent for players in Adams’ mold producing early in their careers.

The Jets’ offense could be downright abysmal in 2017, forcing their defense to play an exorbitant amount of snaps. Collins led the Giants, playing 1,092 downs his first season and finished as DB12. Neal logged 82% of the Falcons’ snaps, finishing as DB9 as a rookie. A high snap count alone may not lead to instant IDP success, but it’s a positive development for our purposes.

According to teammates, Adams has not only picked up the system, but is already directing traffic and asserting himself as the defense’s leader. This is, perhaps, the most encouraging news thus far, and points to a player who will not only start from day-one, but is also unlikely to be benched for struggling — which is always a danger with rookie defenders.

Still, life could be difficult for Adams early on. The Jets’ top five linebackers combined for a putrid seven total sacks in 2016. This led to the team managing the fourth fewest sacks overall, while making the second fewest interceptions, and allowing the third highest passer rating in the NFL.

This lack of a pass rush will stress New York’s young secondary to its breaking point if things don’t improve this season. If quarterbacks are allowed to dissect the defense unimpeded, they will shred these young DBs. Allowing teams to throw at will on the defense could either result in added tackling opportunities for Adams, or just make him look really bad in coverage.

Regardless, he has the mental and physical makeup of a legitimate IDP stud. Adams is still one of the safest picks in rookie drafts, and has a great shot at ranking among the top-24 defensive backs this season.

Long-Term Expectations

The Jets’ future is murky, at best. Bowles — in only in his second season at the helm — followed up a 10-6 debut season, with a 5-11 catastrophe, in 2016. The outside perspective of the Jets is that they’re a team in the midst of “tanking” for the top-pick in the 2018 draft. Without knowing whether the head coach and his scheme will be around when New York turns the corner, the possibility of a scheme change may linger in Adams’ future.

Aside from the Jets’ aforementioned pass rush woes, the development of their cornerbacks and the other safeties on the roster will play a big role in how willing the coaches are to place Adams in position to blitz and create havoc in the backfield. Should they chose to keep him in a deep safety role, his IDP stats will suffer compared to how he could thrive playing closer to the line of scrimmage.

One of the best things that could happen to Adams would be for Maye and a player like Miles to emerge as a competent safety duo on their own, allowing Adams to be a chess piece who coaches maneuver around in dime and quarter packages to disrupt the offense’s gameplan.

In any event, IDP owners who are struggling in the secondary need to consider jumping on Adams early in their drafts, as a player who could lend stability to their DB group for years to come.

NFL Comparison

Collins arguably had as many detractors as fans when picked by the Giants early in the second round of the 2015 draft. There were doubts about his ability to play single high, and hold up in coverage generally. What wasn’t questioned was his ability to bring the thunder.

Adams has been touted as the best safety in the 2017 class since season’s end. If not for two unpredictable moves on draft day, (the Bears trading up for Mitchell Trubisky, and the Titans’ selection of Corey Davis,) it’s unlikely Adams would have slid out of the top five. Now, both Collins and Adams will call MetLife Stadium their home for the foreseeable future.

The impact of great safeties is understated, both in the NFL and in IDP. In many leagues, Collins was the top-scoring defender in 2016, surpassing the league’s best linebackers. Whether Adams has the same type of IDP scoring ability remains to be seen, but he has many of the on-field traits and leadership qualities required to stand out.

Projected Range for Rookie Drafts

Adams is currently DB2 in DLF’s Rookie IDP Rankings for July, and DB14 in the our overall IDP Rankings. He’s trailing the Browns’ Jabrill Peppers in both list, mainly due to Peppers’ potential usage on offense, which the Cleveland brass has admitted is in their plans.

You’d be hard pressed to find another rookie safety more integral to his team’s hopes for success than Adams. He will be the leader and the rock of New York’s defense for years. Owners who snatch him now have found a long term solution at safety worth rostering for a decade. How many players in IDP can we really say that about?

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