Instant Analysis: Eric Decker Signs in Tennessee
I love to see an NFL franchise be aggressive in surrounding its young signal caller with a strong supporting cast. If you look around NFL rosters this off-season, you’d be hard pressed to find any team who upgraded its weapons quite like the Tennessee Titans. Why shouldn’t they?
They have one of the best young signal callers in the entire league in Marcus Mariota, one of the best running games with their big boy tandem of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, and a tight end who is as underrated as any over the last five years in Delanie Walker. What they were missing was a true legitimate number one wide receiver but they think they have one now after selecting Corey Davis fifth overall in this year’s draft, but they weren’t done adding talent just yet.
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On Sunday, the Titans reached a one year agreement with free agent wide receiver Eric Decker, formerly of the New York Jets. After three years in New York, he was released last week as the Jets completely overhaul one of, if not clearly, the worst offense in football.
Before suffering hip and shoulder injuries last year which limited him to three game appearances, Decker was a solid wide receiver for both the Jets and fantasy leaguers alike. In 2015 he scored 12 touchdowns to go with his 1,027 yards on 80 catches. He and Brandon Marshall formed a great duo and let Ryan Fitzpatrick cash in on a payday he didn’t deserve. While Decker has always been more than a secondary wide receiver on an NFL team, he’s not a true number one either. He’s always been more of a WR1b and that’s exactly what the Titans need right now as Corey Davis gets back to full health. Decker is a veteran presence and should be a great mentor as Davis transitions from Western Michigan to the NFL.
Davis and Decker will join Rishard Matthews, Harry Douglas and Tajae Sharpe in a revamped Titans wide receiver group. Matthews was one of 2016’s biggest surprises as he easily set career highs across the board in his fifth season, his first in Tennessee. Pressed into primary role, Matthews finished the season with 65 catches for 945 yards and nine touchdowns on 108 targets. It’s quite obvious his targets are going to go way down in 2017 with the recent additions, but he has earned a spot and a role in this offense, which, on paper, looks like it could be quite explosive, barring injury.
The chart below shows the top performing pass catchers from last year based on targets. Gone are Kendall Wright (Chicago), Andre Johnson (retirement) and Anthony Fasano (Dolphins). While that’s only 80 targets going unaccounted for, the Titans should see more offensive plays per game this year.
One thing people need to realize while drooling over the Mariota to Davis connection is that this team is not going to abandon the running game. Murray and Henry were awesome last year and they’re a big part of why Mariota had the success he had. There will be times when this team gets forced into shootouts and they’re well equipped to go toe to toe, but the defense is a major work in progress, and nothing hides a questionable defense like a strong run game.
The key is going to be the continued development of Marcus Mariota as he enters his third season. He had a very strong sophomore season overall but was streaky as far as fantasy football goes. He finished the season with 3,426 yards passing, a 26:9 touchdown to interception ratio and 349 rushing yards with another two touchdowns on the ground. When he was on, he was as good as anyone in the game with five games over 25 fantasy points but when he was off, he was really off. He had five games under 12 fantasy points, not counting the week 17 game he sat out after breaking his leg in week 16. He should be able to improve on his top 15 fantasy quarterback finish with the upgraded weaponry and break into the lower tier of QB1 signal callers.
You might be asking yourself, “When is this idiot going to get to his Decker prediction?” Well, it’s right now. Decker went from a team with the unquestioned worst quarterback situation in the NFL to an offense ready to explode. On that Jets team he would’ve fought to be a weekly flex option and may have only found the end zone a hand full of times. On the Titans, and as long as he returns to full health, he should be a 60 catch receiver who finishes with around 750 yards receiving and about eight touchdowns. That would equate to 183 fantasy points, good enough for fringe WR3/WR4 numbers in 2016 in the Cameron Meredith, DeSean Jackson, Sterling Shepard range.
At just 30 years old and playing on a one year contract with a game not necessarily dependent on speed, Decker should be plenty motivated to prove he can stay healthy, still be a productive wide receiver and look to cash in during next year’s free agency period.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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