2017 IDP Projections: Baltimore Ravens

I believe that to properly analyze the 2017 IDPs you need to have an idea of how they’ll ALL perform so you can benchmark and compare them effectively.  So I built a model using past performance, efficiency, scheme information and coaching tendencies to predict what will happen in 2017.  I’ve applied that to my best estimates for how teams will use players this year which gives a projection and ranking for all IDPs. You can read more about what I did and how here. 

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Notes

There is no shame in the Ravens defense no longer being as good as when it was a title-winning unit with multiple Hall of Fame players.  It’s still a good unit that ranked sixth in DVOA in 2016.  There have only been fairly minor departures (Zach Orr was nowhere near as good as his fantasy production indicated) and some strong recruitment. If the offense bounces back from an unusually poor year they could quietly be a very good unit in 2017.

Stars

CJ Mosley, LB

Some say that Mosley has been disappointing, but in reality he’s a fairly consistent LB1 – it’s just that he had one elite season that people want to be his standard.  He has a solid chance to be a top player again this season as my LB3.

Key stats: 1,036 snaps, 81 solo tackles, 66 assists, three sacks, nine passes defended, two INTs.

Brandon Williams, DT

This heavily depends on scoring, but in DT-premium leagues Williams could easily be a monster.  He’s my DT5. He’s such a good NFL player but admittedly in many settings this does not translate.

Key stats: 653 snaps, 32 solo tackles. 23 assists, four sacks, four passes defended.

Starters

Kamalei Correa, LB

This is one of the bigger talking points in the IDP world.  For what it’s worth, I think Correa secures the job which is a golden ticket to production.  Even allowing for downgraded efficiency in the spot that has made Daryl Smith and Zach Orr IDP stars, I have Correa as my LB34.

Key stats: 883 snaps, 59 solo tackles. 38 assists, three sacks, nine passes defended, two INTs.

Tony Jefferson, S

In Arizona in 2016, Tony Jefferson played a very similar role to Eric Weddle in Baltimore.  Many of the key stats look identical including time spent in the box, percentage run plays, stops, tackles, etc.  So it’s really interesting to see how they’ll be used.  My opinion is that Weddle plays the deeper role that Lardarius Webb had in 2016 and Jefferson takes over in Weddle’s spot.  That should lead to a very productive year and he’s my #28 S.

Key stats: 922 snaps, 50 solo tackles, 28 assists, one sack, nine passes defended, two INTs.

Useful

Jimmy Smith, CB

Smith is included because he seems to be a popular choice at the moment.  I don’t see it.  He’s not been hugely productive for a while, and I don’t think anything has really changed significantly.  He’s CB #29 for me.

Key stats: 725 snaps, 50 solo tackles. nine assists, one sack, ten passes defended, one INT.

Eric Weddle, S

I mentioned him above, but I’m expecting him to play deeper this season.  He is 32 after all.  He’s good enough to be relevant in weeks with big plays but only S #53 for me given the likely change of role.

Key stats: 922 snaps, 46 solo tackles, 19 assists, one sack, five passes defended, one INT.

Other

Tyus Bowser, LB

Bowser was drafted highly, but I don’t expect him to be good enough early on to be relevant, except in leagues slanted heavily towards big play scoring. Even assuming he’s the top Raven outside linebacker, my projection of LB #57 is optimistic.

Key stats: 811 snaps, 363 solo tackles, 24 assists, nine sacks,three passes defended.

Patrick Onwuasor, LB

Remember earlier when I said I think Correa wins the inside linebacker job opposite Mosley? Onwuasor is in the mix too.  I don’t think he will manage to do so, but if he does he’ll be the top IDP waiver option. He’s certainly one to watch.

Albert McClellan, LB

Ditto Onwuasor.  He has a small chance of paying off but in very deep leagues (60+ roster size) he’s worth holding.

Willie Henry, Bronson Kaufusi, Chris Wormley, Defensive Interior

Defensive end is just not a productive spot in the Ravens scheme, but I’m including them so you know just how ineffective they are. Don’t touch either unless you’re desperate.

Key stats: 505 snaps, 16 solo tackles, 11 assists, three sacks, three passes defended / 347 snaps, 11 solo tackles 12 assists, one sack, one pass defended.

Summary

It will be a fascinating year for the Ravens, given so many picks invested into youth.  I think they’re likely to be a top ten unit and may well produce three or four very good IDPs.  Chief amongst those is the second inside linebacker spot. You should be watching that like a hawk in training camp.

Equally there are some red herrings, and Weddle, the defensive ends and corners are all likely to disappoint their IDP owners.

Those are my predictions as of right now.  Obviously things will change as we get a better idea of who will play and how going towards the season.  If you disagree with any assertions here feel free to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter (@TomDegenerate) and I’ll be happy to discuss.

Thanks for reading.

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