Strategy in Action: Fake Punt

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 21, 2017

A couple of weeks ago when I kicked off the April version of the DLF Mock Drafts, the series of dynasty startup mocks used to formulate our monthly average draft position data, I decided I should once again employ a variety of strategies in team building.

A little bit of background information first. I first came upon this rather simple idea late in the off-season of 2016. In the August mock drafts, I chose six varying startup draft strategies and tried them all while participating in each of the monthly mock drafts. My plan was to detail each approach in a series of article, but eventually I ran out of time before the 2016 NFL season kicked off. The timing all around was poor on my part since most drafts of this type had wrapped anyway.

Now, with more time and startup draft season right around the corner, I chose April’s mocks to try the venture with one more time. In this series of articles, I’ll explain the plan I entered with, players I chose and how the plan might have changed along the way. I’ll also attempt to objectively point out the pros and cons of each tactic as a potential team building blueprint.

Before I examine the next mock draft, let me explain some ground rules I gave myself. First, I chose a strategy for each league before setup, meaning I was not aware of my draft position beforehand. I also gave myself an out of sorts, acknowledging that I would not necessarily stick to the predetermined plan if a huge value was staring me in the face.

The Strategy

This might be my current favorite startup draft strategy. It’s called the Fake Punt, first introduced by former DLF writer Brian Malone. The gist of the strategy is that a dynasty owner treats the first half of their draft as if they were attempting a Productive Struggle, or punting, as it is often called. At the midpoint of the draft though, an audible is called and the owner begins to focus on adding “win now” pieces, usually short-term veterans.

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The idea behind this path is to come away from the draft with a stellar combination of high-upside youth, along with veteran pieces who could help the team compete immediately.

The Draft

Here’s how my mock draft went:

1.10 Allen Robinson, WR JAX

2.03 Brandin Cooks, WR NE

3.10 Mike Williams, WR ROOKIE

4.03 Derrick Henry, RB TEN

5.10 Juju Smith-Schuster, WR ROOKIE

6.03 Jordan Reed, TE WAS

7.10 Alvin Kamara, RB ROOKIE

8.03 Breshad Perriman, WR BAL

9.10 Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN

10.03 Chris Godwin, WR ROOKIE

11.10 Martellus Bennett, TE GB

12.03 Drew Brees, QB NO

13.10 Doug Martin, RB TB

14.03 Danny Woodhead, RB BAL

15.10 Frank Gore, RB IND

16.03 Robert Woods, WR LAR

17.10 Eli Manning, QB NYG

18.03 Torrey Smith, WR PHI

19.10 Travis Benjamin, WR LAC

20.03 Aldrick Robinson, WR SF

With a full on punt in the works for the first ten rounds, I targeted young wide receivers early and often. This draft was also the first time a “too good to be true” value presented itself in the form of Reed in the sixth round. I didn’t have a tight end yet and while he is more of a “win now” player, he’s also still young enough to be a core piece to any dynasty roster.

Through the opening ten rounds, which most dynasty players would consider the prime opportunity to land starting caliber players, I had loaded up on unproven youth. A potential lineup at that point would have included Robinson, Cooks, Reed and several question marks.

The sharp turn came late in the eleventh round when I grabbed Bennett. Despite already having one of the top tight ends in the game, I was simply looking for potential starters and paid little attention to positional needs. I also gave little consideration to player age or long-term value. Starting with the Bennett selection, I was simply trying to find pieces that could help me win in the short-term.

The Lineup

In these mock drafts, the supposed starting lineups consist of one each from the four key fantasy positions; quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end, along with four flex spots, which could be a RB, WR or TE.

QB- Brees

RB- Martin

WR- Robinson

TE- Reed

FLEX- Cooks

FLEX- Bennett

FLEX- Woodhead

FLEX- Williams

Of the eight projected starters, half of them came from each section of the startup draft, with Robinson, Reed, Cooks and Williams looking like potential starters, while veterans Brees, Martin, Woodhead and Bennett filled out the lineup.

This roster still has some questions, but looks to be in better shape than previous lineups formed through the Productive struggle and value picks strategies. While Woodhead, Martin and Bennett may not have many years remaining in their time as fantasy starters, they will help bridge the gap until Henry, Kamara and the plethora of young wideouts prove their worth.

The Pros

I mentioned the obvious pros of this strategy earlier. Entering a draft with a split focus could lead to the best of both worlds. With the way so many dynast owners focus heavily on youth in the early portion of a draft, veteran value routinely falls and this strategy takes advantage of that. In some ways, this seems obvious, but so many players want to stay in their lane once they begin building with a specific strategy. This means that if an owner focuses on acquiring young, high upside talent early in the draft, they will usually stick with that plan and avoid veterans who don’t fit the plan.

Although half of the picks are players with little long-term value, their respective successors are already built in thanks to the early portion of the draft.

The Cons

Maybe I’m just smitten with Brian’s brilliantly named strategy, but I see very few, if any, negatives with this game plan. Obviously, this combination of punting and winning now has no guarantees of either short or long-term success, but it does offer owners the best chance of competing for years to come.

The Next Steps

In this specific example, I may have waited too long to begin collecting the win now pieces and I am not overly confident in Martin’s situation. Because of this, I would consider shopping for an additional running back or a starting level player from another position. In hindsight and if I was drafting this team from the beginning, I might begin selecting veterans as early as the eighth round, sacrificing one of Perriman or Treadwell for a player like Greg Olsen or Ameer Abdullah.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.