Rookie Profile: Chad Hansen, WR California

Curtis Patrick Posted On April 17, 2017

The more dynasty players I come to know, the more obvious to me it has become that each one has certain boxes they like their rookies to check. Production, breakout age, athletic profile, and projected draft round are among the most commonly mentioned. While some boxes may be more important to an individual owner than others, presumably, the more boxes a prospect checks, the safer one might feel about investing high draft capital.

Chad Hansen has an incomplete profile, but checks enough boxes to deserve a place on our rookie draft radars.

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Production

Hansen enters the draft following his 22-year-old junior season at Cal. He spent his freshman year at Idaho State, then sat out a year as he transferred to Berkeley. Hansen first saw the field at as a 21-year-old sophomore, but didn’t make much of an impact, as Jared Goff spread the ball around to a wide receiver corps consisting of current NFL players Trevor Davis and Bryce Treggs.

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Hansen broke out in a big way in 2016, as the clear alpha target for fellow draft classmate, Davis Webb. He was one of only five players in FBS to average more than 120 receiving yards per game. Hansen also ranked third in the country with 9.2 receptions per game and finished tied for 17th with 12 touchdown receptions. He has a knack for the big play, with 16 receptions of 20 yards or longer.

Hansen didn’t catch any passes from a slot position on the field; at this point he is a pure boundary WR.

Breakout Age

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Per Player Profiler, Hansen compiled a college dominator score of 35.2 percent, which is very good, but not great. If you are unfamiliar with dominator rating, it is the combined percentage of a player’s receiving yards and receiving touchdowns versus his overall team totals. Hansen’s score places him at the 66th percentile. His breakout age of 21.6 years is a 21st percentile score.

What might that mean in fantasy terms? In a 2014 study by James Todd of Rotoviz, research showed that over a five-year period, 52 percent of wide receivers who posted top-30 fantasy season had a breakout age of less than 20 years old and 75 percent broke out before age 21. Hansen gets a passing grade for his dominator rating, but his breakout age is not ideal.

Athletic Profile

At 6’2”, 202, Hansen has average speed, but very good agility scores (85th percentile). The agility shows up on tape; he makes the first defender miss often when in the open field. He is capable taking screens to the house.

Hansen is an average jumper, but his height and timing make up for it. He is an excellent high-pointer and wins contested balls. He always seems to know where he is on the field and adjusts his route speed when near the end-zone to leave himself (and the quarterback) room to make a play.

While I’m hesitant to share player comparisons, I know that many readers appreciate them and feel it helps them understand a player’s style better. Hansen reminds me of a more athletically gifted version of Brian Hartline.

Draft Stock

Hansen is currently projected as a late second or third round pick in the NFL Draft. I’m higher on Hansen than anyone else on the DLF rookie rankings team, penciling him at 22nd overall and WR13.

Hansen is slotted as the 37th overall dynasty prospect in the draft class by the DLF team. His positional rank is WR18. I don’t understand the disparity between his NFL Draft projection and the team’s rankings here, especially when fellow Cal Golden Bear, Davis Webb, is the DLF rookie QB6. Perhaps most of the team thinks Hansen simply benefitted from playing with a strong college quarterback.

If he is drafted in-line with his common projections in the NFL Draft, then I think you’ll see the rankings team address it and his post-draft average rank will climb.

Verdict

Chad Hansen has a limited track record, with only one year of success at the collegiate level. While this isn’t ideal, when he got his chance, his production was among the FBS leaders in several key statistical receiving categories.

His open field agility and end-zone prowess should help him get on the field in year one. I think he will be a NFL WR2 at some point in his career, which should translate to something resembling a fantasy WR3 or flex-type player with touchdown upside.

He should be available in the third round of most dynasty rookie drafts. If you need wide receiver depth, Hansen is worth a shot.

Enjoy the highlights!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aeIP95gia0

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