The more dynasty players I come to know, the more obvious to me it has become that each one has certain boxes they like their rookies to check. Production, breakout age, athletic profile, and projected draft round are among the most commonly mentioned. While some boxes may be more important to an individual owner than others, presumably, the more boxes a prospect checks, the safer one might feel about investing high draft capital.
Malachi Dupre has an incomplete profile, but checks enough boxes to deserve a place on our rookie draft radars.
Production
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Dupre enters the draft following his junior season at LSU. The five star high school recruit was not a starter as a freshman, however he made the most of the game reps he saw as an 18 year-old.
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
Dupre was a starter during his sophomore and junior seasons. His stats must be analyzed through an understanding lens. LSU ranked 44th, 114th, and 105th in the nation in team passing offense in his three seasons in Baton Rouge. There wasn’t much passing production to spread around in a plodding, run-first offense anchored by Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice.
Dupre caught 23 of his 41 receptions out of slot in 2016. This may help him see the field a little earlier in his NFL career since he can be used in different alignments.
Breakout Age
Per Player Profiler, Dupre compiled a career college dominator score of 32.3 percent, which is roughly average. If you are unfamiliar with dominator rating, it is the combined percentage of a player’s receiving yards and receiving touchdowns versus his overall team totals. While his career dominator rating is nondescript, Dupre first crossed the 20 percent single season threshold at the fresh age of 18.9 years old, which equates to a 91st percentile breakout age.
According to Player Profiler, players who breakout before turning 19 are “phenoms”. What might that mean in fantasy terms? In a 2014 study by James Todd of Rotoviz, research showed that over a five-year period, 52 percent of wide receivers who posted top-30 fantasy season had a breakout age of less than 20 years old and 75 percent broke out before age 21. Dupre gets a gold star in this box.
Athletic Profile
At 6’2”, 196 pounds, Dupre has the lean frame of a prototypical NFL deep-threat. His predominant trait is his leaping ability, as he posted broad and vertical jumps above the 90th percentile. He was a high school track star, winning his state championship in the triple jump, long jump, and high jump.
Player Profiler combines broad and vertical jumps into a metric they call “burst score”, a metric in which Dupre rates at the 96th percentile. As you might imagine, Dupre’s size a leaping ability help him create matchup problems that can lead to touchdown opportunities. As you can see in his Mock Draftable web above, Dupre isn’t overly agile and is more of a straight-line runner; one with a 45th percentile forty-yard dash time.
While I’m hesitant to share player comps, I know that many readers appreciate them and feel it helps them understand a player’s style better. Dupre enters the league with an athletic profile and playing style reminiscent of former dynasty siren, Justin Hunter.
Draft Stock
There isn’t a lot of post-combine buzz about Dupre, but the few mentions I’ve read suggest he could be drafted anywhere from the third to the fifth round.
Dupre is currently ranked as the 21st overall dynasty prospect in the draft class by the DLF rookie rankers. His positional rank is WR10. I’m a little lower on Dupre than the staff average and rank him as my WR15. If he is drafted any later than the third round, I would expect the rest of the team to adjust him down closer to my current ranking.
Verdict
Malachi Dupre has a proven ability to score touchdowns and his leaping ability should allow him to replicate that success at the next level. However, I think his relative lack of athletic breadth will prevent him from ever becoming an elite dynasty asset. I see Dupre as a NFL WR4 who can create matchup problems as a downfield or boundary threat. In a perfect environment, I could see him returning a few fantasy WR2/3 seasons due to touchdown production.
Enjoy the highlights!
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- Mount Bust-More? Historical Context for 2017’s Early First Round WRs - December 28, 2017
- The Return of Josh Gordon - December 2, 2017
- Player Value: Two Wide Receivers Who Might Never Be Cheaper - September 15, 2017
Curtis, very honest take on Dupre. I bet you’ll get some flack from his legion of devy truthers who’re still holding onto old hype. But that’s all it is at this point…old hype.
Light never came on at LSU over three seasons, and the poor QB and/or scheme limitation excuses don’t magically explain it all away. Some yes, but not all of it. HIs athletic profile is questionable as you pointed out, despite WR1 type size. So WR4 at the next level seems like a very appropriate projection. He’ll go undrafted in a lot of rookie drafts if I had to guess, at least ones that only span three rounds.
I wonder if he’d even be a consideration if he wasn’t an LSU WR. It’s like the opposite of USC with Juju being graded down. I know they’re all different players and it’s lazy scouting but just something that comes up with certain players and schools.
Dupre gets the OBJ/Landry boost despite weak stats while Juju gets the Agohlor stink despite strong numbers.
Congrats from your biggest fan
