Miami Dice: Dolphins Take a Chance on Julius Thomas

Jeremy Funk Posted On February 21, 2017

After today’s news that the Jacksonville Jaguars have traded Julius Thomas to the Miami Dolphins, it is important for us as Dynasty owners to respond quickly. As an owner of several Thomas shares through multiple leagues, I have found myself within a duality of how I view him moving forward. I will layout this dichotomy for you in hopes you might come to your decisions on how you will view Thomas’ change of scenery.

The Good

By being traded to the Dolphins, Thomas will be linking up with the offensive play caller who made him a two-time Pro Bowler in Denver, Adam Gase. This environmental change will largely be the positive narrative coming from other dynasty forums, but it appears to be a double-edged sword (one I will touch on later). In Denver, Thomas was frequently used to exploit slower linebackers and smaller safeties. During his tenure in Jacksonville, it was easy to see the Jaguars utilized Thomas similarly in the red zone, but failed to use him as a threat elsewhere consistently. Thus, it is with hopes that within a Gase offense Thomas will be able to succeed once again as both a receiving and red zone threat once more.

Alternatively, I believe this to be a good sign for young tight ends Nate Sterling and Ben Koyack. Both Sterling and Koyack have shown to be promising prospects, both playing significant roles late in the season. Sterling, a college receiver, strikes me as the most exciting as fantasy stash due to his upside as a receiving threat. Obviously, the depth chart could quickly shift after free agency or the 2017 NFL (which has been called “The best tight end draft class in a decade” by numerous anonymous scouts). Thus, I would look to stash both Sterling and Koyack on the back end of my roster or taxi squad as a “wait and see” player.

The Bad

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As eluded to earlier, there are several negatives that centralize around Thomas returning to Gase’s offense. He will be entering an already competitive market for touches as the Dolphins appear to have several weapons at their disposal. Playing alongside DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and Leonte Carroo will severely cripple his chances of holding a viable fantasy role. Additionally, the poor blocking Thomas will now begin a competition for snaps with a superior blocking counterpart in the form of Dion Sims. These factors will further stack the odds against Thomas and place him at high risk to fall into fantasy irrelevance.

As Thomas moves laterally in regards to his quarterback play (Blake Bortles to Ryan Tannehill), one might argue his production with the Broncos was solely on the shoulders of Peyton Manning’s brilliance under center. Tannehill, often referred to as a fearful game manager, does not fuel a high-octane offense similar to Thomas’ days in Denver. Through his tenure with the Dolphins, Tannehill has lacked consistency and never been willing to stretch the field, thus failing to utilize downfield threats similar to the playing caliber of Thomas.

This trade also negatively impacts a favorite DLF sleeper in Dion Sims. An athletic specimen and sound blocker, Sims began to show signs of relevance towards the end of the 2016 season posting a career best (26 receptions, 256 yards, four touchdowns). After Jordan Cameron’s frequent injuries, Sims stepped in and showed to be a strong red zone threat and seen as a cornerstone in setting the edge in the running game. However, this appears to be a statement by the organization that they do not value him as highly as we might have thought. He will hold some value sitting behind the oft-injured Thomas, but I suspect Sims and Thomas will eat into the others snap count and Sims will largely be used as a run blocking tight end. Personally, I will be holding my shares of Sims, but he will likely be transformed into multiple assets after rookie drafts are done.

The Ugly

The biggest reason for skepticism about Thomas are the frequent injuries that hold him off the field and keep us guessing if he is or is not going to play due to the dreaded “Game Time Decision” label on the injury report. Since entering the league, Thomas has yet to miss fewer than three games each season. In the last two seasons, Thomas missed 47% of games, giving him the reputation of a glass cannon. The majority of these injuries have come to his lower body, which works to sap the explosive abilities of a pass catcher. Due to the relative frequency of his injuries, this soon-to-be 29-year old who depends so heavily on his mismatch ability is again at high risk of exiting the league sooner rather than later.

Lastly, Thomas was acquired by Miami for only a 7^th round pick in the upcoming draft. This move should come to show how much the league values him considering Denver gave a 5^th round pick for A.J. Derby (a young prospect from the Patriots.) Though this might be a sign that Thomas demanded a trade to his old coach, I have a sneaking suspicion the Jaguars would have been glad to offload Thomas’ large contract to a team with a higher bid. Further news has shown Thomas will be altering his contract to a performance incentivised contract, which works to outline further the NFL’s skepticism on his ability to last much longer in the league.

In conclusion, I believe the odds to be stacked against Julius Thomas in his new environment. If you have some depth at the tight end position, don’t be afraid to hold him with hopes of him returning to his former brilliance with the Broncos. However, in the majority of my leagues, I will be shopping him to find a team willing to give me any third round or high fourth round rookie pick. Personally, I believe this to be the last call to abandon a sinking ship. Otherwise, if you choose to wait and see, you might be stuck riding the remaining wave of Julius Thomas’ depreciating value as a dynasty prospect.

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