We received more bad news on Rob Gronkowski, as the New England Patriots tight end will undergo back surgery and is out for the remainder of the fantasy football season. This is a blow for those who expected Gronkowski to carry them through the fantasy football playoffs, but how does this impact his outlook in dynasty formats?
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Gronkowski came into the NFL with back problems and has undergone microdiscectomy surgeries in 2009 and 2013. This is his second recurrence of a lumbar disc herniation. The family statement noted Gronkowski had pain in his back and legs after the Jets game, and that is consistent with radiculopathy, a fancy term describing pain shooting down the legs. Radiculopathy occurs when a disc herniates and presses on a nerve as it exits the spinal column. Most disc herniations occur at L4/5 or L5/S1, both lower levels of the spine that serve areas of the lower legs and gluteal region (buttocks). Hence, pain can radiate to the gluteal region and down the leg with pressure on the nerve.
Here is a diagram of a disc herniation:
The red arrow is pointing to a piece of disc that has herniated into the spinal canal and is pushing on nerves. If you look closely, you can see nerves as slightly dark lines, similar to spaghetti noodles in appearance, on a bright background of spinal fluid. As the disc extrudes into the spinal canal, it pushes on nerves both in the canal and/or as nerves exit to the lower extremities. This can result in pain and other neurological deficits, such as weakness.
This diagram also shows it well:
Microdiscectomies are a minimally invasive surgical technique that utilizes instruments to identify the herniated disc, cut away parts compressing the pinched nerve, and eliminate the source of pain. Other surgeries might also include removing the entire disc, placing a bone graft between the vertebra, and allowing the bone to fuse. Sometimes artificial discs can be placed in lieu of a graft, but medical literature is controversial on whether it is any better than a fusion.
The natural question for fantasy football players, particularly in dynasty leagues, is how likely it is that Gronkowski will come back from this injury, and what are the odds of him having a fourth back surgery?
There isn’t much data on athletes with a third lumbar disc herniation and surgery for it. There is medical literature that describes treatment of recurrent lumbar disc herniations, and they are a bit reassuring. One study of lumbar disc herniation in offensive lineman found a 13.5% chance of recurrent herniation, and 85.7% returned to play in the NFL. Granted, this study didn’t evaluate tight ends, but it’s encouraging nonetheless.1 There are case reports describing successful repeat discectomies on athletes2. A variety of studies on athletes with lumbar disc herniations show successful return to sport in 80-85% of cases, with an average career length of 3-4 years. Other published literature supports a 5-15% chance of recurrent lumbar disc herniation3, with good results in 60-80% of patients undergoing repeat surgery for it. Another study reported 80-90% success rates for patients undergoing microendoscopic discectomies for recurrent lumbar disc herniations4.
The medical literature isn’t optimal on this subject, but what is published is encouraging for Gronkowski and his ability to have a successful outcome. It’s worth noting that Gronkowski will have the most skilled and experience surgeons operating on him, in addition to an experienced rehabilitation team. Both factors are huge in the recovery from back surgery. One caveat is, the dynamics of spine motion are altered with back injuries, and that can increase risk of recurrent disc herniations either at the surgical site or above/below it.
What should we conclude about Gronkowski in dynasty formats? I think Gronkowski is likely to return to play. Based on medical literature, he also stands a good chance of returning to his prior level of performance. His history of three back surgeries is, however, a bit of a red flag. Still, he is an elite player and only 27 years old. I’m a cautious buyer of Gronkowski, mainly from panicked owners who think this could be the end of his career. I would not pay a premium for Gronkowski, but I’d have no problem paying 50% to 75% of his value. Gronkowski’s recent ADP is 13 (TE1). I’d consider trading Greg Olsen (ADP 56) or Hunter Henry (ADP 77) in a deal for Gronkowski. Players like Kelvin Benjamin (ADP 27) or Jordan Matthews (ADP 25) I’d easily trade for Gronkowski.
Dynasty players who acquire Gronkowski must understand that his availability may always be an issue, but when he starts, he’s elite and a key to victory. I would not advocate paying a premium, but for dynasty owners willing to take on the injury risk, I’d be sending out offers now for him at a discount. The time to trade for him is now, while anxiety is highest about his recovery. For risk-taking dynasty players, it’s a move that could pay dividends in 2017.
- Management of Sports-Related Lumbar Conditions, Operative Techniques in Orthopaedics, September 2015. Vol 25(3): pp 164-176.
- Revision percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy under local anesthesia for recurrent lumbar herniated nucleus pulposus in a high class athlete: A case report. J. Med. Invest. January 2016. Vol 63 (1-2):pp 135-139.
- Recurrent Lumbar Disc Herniation, Benzel’s Spine Surgery, 4th Edition
- Minimally invasive redo discectomy for recurrent lumbar herniations. Journal of Clinical Neuroscience, 2015;Vol 22(9): pp 1382-1386.
[/am4show]
- Dynasty Capsule: Carolina Panthers - February 3, 2017
- The Dynasty Doctor: CJ Anderson - January 25, 2017
- The Dynasty Doctor: Week 15 - December 20, 2016
I don’t think its even close comparing an offensive lineman with a tight end with recurrence data. I would say percentage of recurrence would be much more likely due to the nature of tackling and falling which cause greater flexion of lumbar spine. Offensive lineman relatively keep a good lordodic curve in lumbar spine with mostly having more extension based activities which would actually counteract disc herniation. I would actually place Gronk at a relatively high reoccurrence of symptoms going forward. It’s also troubling when MDs and therapist believe surgery is the first option meaning the disc is “ruptured” enough where it is not only causing pain symptoms but myotomal (muscular activation) which is typically the case.
I firmly disagree with the “buy” advice here. Kelvin Benjamin for Gronkowski? That is madness.
In non-ppr, Gronkowski was averaging just over 6 points per game this season.
KB is averaging close to 9.
Now Gronk is done, meaning his actual average pts contributed this season is going to be 4.3 per game. Also means you have to have a good backup if you want a chance in the playoffs. If you’re carrying Gronk, you most likely NEED a borderline TE1 as a security blanket…. So what’s the damn point? Trade him and gain the value, lose the constant headaches.
Add in the fact that Gronk may never return to be fully healthy again. Add in the fact that KB is 2 years younger.
If someone is offering me a top 20ish player, I’d be on that immediately.
I currently have an offer for Gronk. I already have Delanie as a backup so I’m not too bad. Im the favorite this year as well. I would be receiving Greg Olsen, Larry Fitz and an early 1st for Gronk. No brainer? Or hold?
I don’t know where you learned to do your math for fantasy but you shouldn’t be averaging out games with the DNPs lol if he didn’t play how can iyou count the 0!?!? Make a case for availability but next time leave the math out buddy lol let’s trade Melvin Gordon for Bell cause he’s averaging 3 more point a game lmao… Come on maaaaann
Of course you should consider his DNP. It gives you a better idea of the true value of the player, by factoring in his injury risk %.
This is especially true for dynasty considering you are rolling over that risk every year. Including this year, he will have been absent 26/80 games in the past 5 seasons. That means 33% of the weeks you play, he is worth 0 to you. For your own ego-stroking purposes you can make his weekly stats look better…Sorry if the math is hard on you brotha. Stay in school kids!
😀
From my perspective, not much has changed on the Gronk front, at least in 1-TE leagues…whenever you have the chance to acquire him, you promptly acquire him. Barring those offers from rapacious trade demanders, who should rear their heads less and less now that he’s suffered another major injury. Even moderately lopsided offers should be considered if you want a (most of the time) weekly advantage at starting TE in your league.
Still an utterly matchup-proof point scoring machine when he’s firing on all cylinders. No bigger positional advantage in fantasy than Gronk when he plays a full compliment of snaps. Seems like just the right time to put together an offer for him if trading is still allowed in your league. The point scoring consistency he brings to the table when he plays is worth the injury risk and missed time. You just know that’s part of owning Gronk and learn to live with it.
And the DNP issue isn’t even an issue. From a statistical comparison standpoint, they’re just not counted. Ever. Period.
Excellent article & analysis Scott. I think your data & analysis drive home the point to me that no player will play for ever & dynasty is about maintaining max value over the long run. I’d rather sell Gronk a year or even two early than ride him to zilche’. Thanks.
Johnny D, I think you missed Scott’s point in this piece on Gronk. Now’s the time to pounce on him at a relative discount, not sell him when his value is down. Take some time to re-read the last couple paragraphs, I think it’s good advice for the savvy dynasty owner. From experience I can tell you that Gronk owners in dynasty and re-draft are among the most stubborn, reluctant to sell mofo’s out there, so any small window to snipe him must be taken very seriously. And that window has officially been opened, at least for a little while.
