IDP Watch: Week 11

IDP leagues can be won with some preemptive in-season pickups or trading for players who are on the rise, but whom the masses have not picked up on. Each week, we’ll detail a handful of IDP players or trends essential for dynasty players to monitor.

Often, things like quarterback hurries, quarterback knockdowns or snap counts don’t appear in the box scores – these are key indicators of potential value changes that may be forthcoming as they show a particular player is getting after the quarterback and a string of sacks may be on the horizon or a linebacker may be coming off of the field more than originally expected.

The goal is to largely avoid stellar IDP players since many of those individuals are already heavily in the eyes of IDP owners. Instead, here are some key trends based on week eleven performances:

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Snap Notes

• Trey Flowers, DE played a little more than 80% of snaps over the last two weeks compared to Jabaal Sheard’s 12%. Sheard was a healthy scratch this past week, as well. With an expanded role, Flowers amassed four tackles, three assists and two sacks in the last two weeks. He’s working his tail off exhibiting strong work ethic and the coaching staff, especially Bill Belichick, appears to trust him. In the midst of a breakout season, Flowers is an ideal defensive end dynasty prospect with high DE2 potential. Sheard, on the other hand, is clearly out of favor. He’s likely to land with another team in free agency next year and it’s a stretch to expect any dependable production to close the season, barring injury. It’s an unfortunate turn for someone who was a popular sleeper this past offseason.
• Edwin Jackson, LB played 69% of the Colts’ snaps last week finishing with four tackles, three assists and a sack. He pushed Clayton Geathers, SS back to a traditional safety role. While Jackson made plays against the Titans, his spike in snaps was likely due to their offensive gameplan as a run heavy offense. Geathers should move back down into the box as an undersized linebacker more frequently against the Steelers in week 11. Jackson is very solid against the run, so he’s worth keeping an eye on or stashing in very deep leagues, though. The problem will be his usage, which is apparent if you look at the snap count for the last three weeks. Against the Chiefs and Titans, he played a little more than 60% of snaps, but against the Packers and their pass-heavy offense, he only played roughly 10% of snaps. He can be a matchup play in deep leagues, but not more than that at this point.
• There were questions about how the return of Dannell Ellerbe, LB would impact Craig Robertson’s snaps. Thus far, Robertson continues to see 100% of snaps with Ellerbe cutting into Nate Stupar’s snaps. Robertson is still the best short-term play, but it Ellerbe and Robertson will likely cap each other’s weekly tackle ceiling as they compete for tackles.
• Elandon Roberts, LB only played 11 snaps against the 49ers last week with Shea McClellin assuming nickel snaps. Surprisingly, Dont’a Hightower, LB also played less than 100% of snaps (78%) sitting for two series early in the game following a strip sack. He finished with five tackles, an assist, a forced fumble and a sack. Roberts can’t be trusted right now and there’s some uncertainty whether the Patriots will continue to rotate bodies depending on the situation damning Hightower’s production ceiling. The most important the thing to remember with Hightower is he’s a free agent this offseason, though. He’ll likely be a priority for the Patriots, but there could be plenty of opportunity in New England next year if they refuse to pay up and Hightower is sought after. Roberts is still a great long-term option. Use the last two weeks of limited production to potentially acquire him at a reasonable level.

News to Follow

• Both Clayton Geathers, SS and Luke Kuechly, LB suffered concussions last week and are likely out for week 12. Considering Kuechly’s concussion history, it’ll be important to monitor his situation and see how quickly responds. The Thursday night scene led many to begin to compare him to Chris Borland who recently retired due to concussion concerns. It’s something to be aware of regarding Kuechly, but the Borland comparison may be jumping the gun. Shaq Thompson would see a bump in projections should Kuechly miss any time. Geathers is more of a short-term issue as he’s out this week against the Steelers. Expect Darius Butler and TJ Green to see increased snaps, but I wouldn’t rely on either with a likely platoon situation. Geathers will quickly assume his role on return.
• Eric Reid, FS was placed on injured reserve with a torn bicep following last week’s game. Jaquiski Tartt will replace Reid in the starting lineup. Tartt produced when provided the opportunity in late 2015. As a starter, he was a top 20 safety. We can expect to see much of the same to close out 2016 as he’s a viable option in most formats.
• With Blake Martinez, LB out this week and Jake Ryan banged up, Clay Matthews may see some time at inside linebacker like he did for much of the year in 2015. That should bring increased tackle opportunities.

Well Played

• Karl Joseph, SS is excelling in both facets of the game. He’s playing a lot of deep safety and his six passes defended really stick out. Both he and Keanu Neal, SS are going to be prime dynasty safeties for years to come especially considering their early success.  Both are currently producing at top 12 levels.
• Jason Pierre-Paul, DE is back. Thus far in 2016, He’s a top five defensive end on a points per game basis behind only Khalil Mack.
• Donte Whitner, SS is proving to be a very capable short-term option. Since grabbing hold of the starting job in week seven, he’s a top five safety. He’s playing virtually every snap and lighting up the box score on a weekly basis.
• Over the last two weeks, Danielle Hunter, DE has four tackles, two assists and three sacks on 62% of snaps. He played 70% of snaps this past week and is proving to be a pass-rushing force with two sacks, two quarterback hits and five quarterback hurries. Only 22 years old, Hunter remains a long-term blue chip defensive end with top five potential.
• Cameron Wake, DE continues his resurgence as a starter. He now has five straight games with a sack after seeing more time in base packages. He’s performing at a top ten pace over that period. Originally appearing to be a good matchup play, Wake is quickly becoming a solid weekly option to close out the year. There are some very nice matchups coming up where he should feast (San Francisco, Arizona, etc.).

Disappointments

• Demarcus Lawrence, DE flashed against the Steelers with four tackles, a forced fumble and a sack, but was missing in action against the Ravens last week. He tallied a quarterback hit, but the Ravens largely kept him in check. It’s unclear whether his back is hindering him at all. Patience is important here, as the talent is there and he has a tendency to catch fire and accumulate sacks in bunches like we saw towards the end of last season.
• Paul Posluszny, LB has five solo tackles or less over the last two games. His total tackles have been well below his season average, as well. At two and eight, the Jaguars are at the point where they need to start looking towards the future. That should mean increased reps for rookie Myles Jack down the stretch. There is no benefit to keeping Posluszny on the field with a lion’s share of snaps. Expect a shift to begin in the near term.
• Harold Jones-Quartey, SS was benched last week for rookie Deon Bush. Bush finished with three tackles and four assists on 100% of snaps. Jones-Quartey didn’t see a defensive snap. Allegedly, mental mistakes did him in.

Deeper Targets to Watch/Add

• James Bradberry, CB was a popular corner-required option in the preseason, but injuries sidetracked the first half of the year. He’s now healthy and see plenty of opportunities. He is a plus option in corner-required leagues with a number of favorable matchups ahead.
• Jalen Collins, CB is worth watching this week in corner-required leagues. Desmond Trufant is still working through a shoulder injury. If he misses another start, Mills would see a boatload of tackle opportunities against the Cardinals. He tallied six tackles against the Eagles with Trufant out in week 10.
• With Jerrell Freeman, LB receiving a four-game suspension for a PED violation, Nick Kwiatkoski, LB is someone to roster and see how he pans out starting alongside Danny Trevathan.

Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveWyremski

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