FanDuel Bargains: Week Nine
Editor’s Note: We’re going to be bringing you an unprecedented amount of content this year during the season, mostly dynasty related. However, seeing the explosion of DFS games, we’ll also be ramping up our Daily coverage, similar to last season. Even if you don’t play in DFS games, these articles can help you in making lineup decisions or judge current value of your dynasty assets.
Of all the weeks on the NFL schedule, week one is perhaps the best for FanDuel players. Not only does it finally give all of us what we’ve been craving for the last seven months, but due to prices being set so long ago, it presents the best opportunity for bargain hunters to find good deals.
Over the next 17 weeks (and into the post-season), I’ll be highlighting some of the best bargains on the best daily site in the industry, FanDuel.
Keep in mind that these suggestions are made for GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments with more than 50 participants where players are looking for bargains to fill out their lineups after already inserting their “studs” for the week. Many of them are risky plays and shouldn’t necessarily be considered in head-to-head or 50/50 games. Rankings courtesy of ESPN.
Quarterbacks
Nick Foles, QB KCC ($6,800)
Alex Smith will be out this week due to concussion he suffered during the game in Indianapolis. In that game, Nick Foles looked more like he did in 2013 while with the Philadelphia Eagles. He made the Pro Bowl that season as he threw 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Who was his head coach at the time? Andy Reid. Now he is back under the Chiefs system, and seems polished.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are soft defensively against the run (27th), but stout against the pass (eighth). They allow the 19th–most points to quarterbacks (16.6), but if he can put up two scores against the Indianapolis Colts who he faced last week, he should do the same against the Jaguars.
Foles finished with 223-yards and two touchdowns. The real problem here is that the Kansas City Chiefs are touchdown favorites in this game, which means they will look to control the game on the ground. Foles scored 16.8 points last week and I can see similar numbers.
The Chiefs are favorites (7.0) at home and the over/under is 44
Consider:
Colin Kaepernick, QB SFO ($7,200)
The reason why I think you should consider Colin Kaepernick is because at $7,200 he is a little too pricey for anyone to get attached too, but cheap enough to warrant some nice return on investment for his price tag. We all pretty much know that Kaepernick is a dog when it comes to passing the football, but Chip Kelly’s system allows bad passing if you are a good runner.
Now that the 49ers are playing the New Orleans Saints this week, it will make it even more worthwhile to own someone like Kaepernick and be able to separate yourself from the herd. The Saints are giving up eight yards an attempt, but have closed down the passing lanes near the goal line (9). Looking at the other teams shows a regressive curve however. Teams that give that many yards on passing plays are allowing 15 passing touchdowns.
I expect at least one touchdown passing from Kaepernick this week and he should be able to carry one in as well. He has exceeded 15 FanDuel points per week under Kelly and that was against tougher defenses in Tampa Bay and Buffalo and don’t forget about the extra week to practice as San Francisco is coming off their bye week.
The Saints are 28th against the pass and 18th against the rush. They also allow 17.3 fantasy points to the opposing quarterback.
The Saints are favorites (3.0) on the road and the over/under is 52.5
Running Backs
Charcandrick West, RB KCC ($5,600) vs. Jaguars
Jamaal Charles fantasy season is most likely done and Spencer Ware is probably going to be out because of the concussion protocol, which means Charcandrick West will be the primary ball carrier and the workhorse against the Jacksonville Jaguars and their soft run defense (27th). The Chiefs employ the run and are averaging close to 21 carries a game and West should get at least 15 of those, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes around 25.
Even better is that the Chiefs are at home and are big favorites. In other words, expect the run, and expect West to get a huge amount of that. He has not been active much, and he is well rested, against a poor running defense that allows 16.7 fantasy points per game. The Jags also have allowed seven rushing touchdowns and teams have been able to get the running backs involved in the passing game and West has good hands.
The Chiefs are favorites (7.0) at home and the over/under is 44
Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE ($6,000)
Isaiah Crowell is averaging a little over 13 carries a game and getting just over two targets per contest as well. Crow has been proficient with his touches and has turned in four top-15 fantasy performances including two weeks a top-five back.
He has to face the Dallas Cowboys that have found a defense. They are not nearly as poor as they have been over the last few years. The Cowboys rank tenth against the rush and only allow 12 fantasy points per game which is one of the toughest (fifth).
Crow has somehow put up solid points on a continuous basis, and he should do it again. Whether its in the passing game, running game, or scoring a touchdown, he should finish with running back number two numbers as a 24th-most expensive back.
The Cowboys are favorites (7.0) on the road and the over/under is 49
Consider:
Darren Sproles, RB PHI ($4,800)
There has been talk that Darren Sproles will have his role expand. He fits the offensive system well. Look for him to do the jack-of-all-trades role once again. He should fill in the role that will be for Josh Huff as he is out with injury. Sproles will also be involved in taking more of the share of carries away from Ryan Mathews.
The Eagles will be facing the New York Giants this week and their run defense (11th) is solid while their pass defense is on the side of poor (22nd). Sproles will be heavily involved in both, so expect him to get points somewhere on that field. Giants only give up 14 points to running backs, but have allowed 38 receptions in the game.
The Giants are favorites (2.5) at home and the over/under is 43
Wide Receiver
Tyrell Williams, WR SDC ($5,600)
Tyrell Williams has been the playmaker this year since Keenan Allen went out in the first game of the season. He is the second highest targeted receiver on the team. To add to the good news, the San Diego Chargers and Philip Rivers like to throw the ball. Even better they will face a poor Tennessee Titans defense that allows 22.8 fantasy points to the wide outs.
Not only do the Chargers like to toss the ball around, but they are also extremely particular when it comes to getting in the red zone. They are the eighth highest passing team in that area and Williams is second in targets on the team down low.
The Chargers are favorites (4.0) at home and the over/under 47.5
Michael Thomas, WR NOS ($5,800)
Unless you are a Saints fan, a reader of these articles, or heavy into DFS, you are probably not aware that Michael Thomas is second on the team in targets for the Saints, and separated by just one overall. Brandin Cooks is the overall leader. Another benefit is that New Orleans will face the 49ers this week and they allow 24 points per game to receivers.
Curiosity on how good a rookie he can be should be answered in his performance last week against the Seattle Seahawks. He caught all six targets for 63-yards against the number one defense, but most of all he has earned Drew Brees’ trust. Thomas on the season, has 42 catches for 500 yards and three touchdowns.
The Saints are favorites (3.0) on the road and the over/under is 52.5
Consider:
Johnny Holton, WR OAK ($0) vs. Denver
Playing a free player who puts up FanDuel points could win you the whole thing. Having a free player allows you to own any high priced player you would want. He has two points twice this season, and has five rushing attempts to go along with one passing target. The tricky part is that he takes a valid spot and will need the other players to carry his weight.
The Raiders are favorites (1.5) at home and the over/under is 43.5
Donte Moncrief, WR IND ($6,100)
Donte Moncrief had no trouble returning from injury against the Chiefs. He caught four passes on nine targets for 41 yards and a touchdown. He also had a wide-open reception that he took to the house, but was called back due to a penalty. He played in 89 percent of the offensive snaps, so he is back to his regular role in the Colts offense.
The Green Bay Packers like to give up the pass, and with both Sam Shields and Damarious Randall out they are going to have a difficult time covering the Colts receivers. Look for Andrew Luck to try to hook up with both Moncrief and TY Hilton as much as possible in a game that should be high scoring.
The Packers are favorites (7.5) at home and the over/under is 54.5
Tight Ends
Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN ($5,000)
Kyle Rudolph is ninth in total points and tenth in points per game this season, but is priced at the 14th tight end this week. What makes this even better is that the Minnesota Vikings will be facing a Detroit Lions team that is very weak against the tight end. They have allowed the most fantasy points which include eight touchdowns. Sam Bradford is going to go his direction. Rudolph is averaging 7.7 targets per game.
The Vikings are favorites (6.0) at home and the over/under is 41
Consider:
Gary Barnidge, TE CLE ($5,200)
Gary Barnidge had better numbers last season, but his quarterback was Josh McCown, but McCown returns and it should kindle the passing relationship once again. With the quarterback he is averaging 13.45 FanDuel points per game and 8.58 without him.
The Dallas Cowboys allow the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends, and I expect that the Browns will be passing a lot and Barnidge should collect some solid garbage points.
The Cowboys are favorites (7.0) on the road and the over/under is 49
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Three - October 1, 2017
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Three - September 24, 2017
- FanDuel Bargains: Week Two - September 17, 2017
