The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Truth: Sammie Coates
Let’s face it, people overreact to small sample sizes. This is especially true when it comes to the world of fantasy football. We have a very strong tendency to let what happens in just 60 minutes completely overpower and sometimes erase what we studied for months or what we’ve seen for years. Every once in a while we need to step back from the ledge, take a deep breath, and remember that extremes happen. Sometimes a perfect storm comes along and a player is great for a brief period before never being heard from again (Bryce Brown, I’m looking at you!). The exact opposite is of course true as well. There have been a ton of players who hit a little slump before leading more fantasy teams to the playoffs than beers consumed at a game in Lambeau Field!
That’s where I come in. For the last few years, I’ve been doing my best to be an objective voice of reason each and every week. I try to pick one or two “breakout” or slumping players each week. I take some time to objectively look at the good news, the bad news, and then give you what I hope is the truth about what you can expect moving forward. I’m not always right (then again, no one is!), but I like to think I’m right way more than I am wrong. I’m not afraid to say something unpopular or against the hype if it is what I believe. I was one of the first to tell you it is time to bail on Trent Richardson when the Browns traded him what seems like decades ago. I always felt Bryce Brown was a splash in the pan who wouldn’t hold dynasty value, and I was one of the voices telling you Allen Hurns was good enough to stay the starter opposite Allen Robinson. All three of those were rather unpopular takes at the time, but they are exactly what all of the evidence point towards. People just needed to step back and take it all in, and I’m just here to help you do that.
Through the first four weeks of the season I spent some time talking about several different young receivers. I’m going to stick to the receiver trend in week five because there seems to be so many receivers coming out of the woodwork to post top ten games at the positon. This week I’m going to take a look at the Steelers’ Sammie Coates. After all, with the game he had last week he definitely deserves quite a bit more attention.
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Sammie Coates, WR PIT
Week 5 Stats: Six receptions on eleven targets for 139 yards and two scores.
Season Stats: 19 receptions on 31 targets for 421 yards and 2 scores.
16 Game Projection at that pace: 76 receptions for 1684 yards and 8 touchdowns.
One of the biggest questions of the last few years has been who will be the complement to one of the best if not the best receiver in the league, Antonio Brown. The Steelers have been trying to find someone for years, and we all thought they had their man when Martavis Bryant burst onto the scene in 2014. He was a little inconsistent in 2015, but he seemed to be progressing in the right direction. Or at least he was until he got hit with yet another suspension, this of the one year plus variety. As we’ve seen from players like Justin Blackmon and Josh Gordon, once you get to that point your return is far from certain. This puts the Steelers back where they were a few years ago, searching for that other receiver.
This summer, most of the talk focused on Markus Wheaton being the guy to step into that role, with the trio of Eli Rogers, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Sammie Coates fighting for the third receiver role. That isn’t exactly how things have played out. Coates has more targets than the other three receivers combined so far. He also has more than double their yardage total. The question is if this will continue to be a trend or if it was just the product of a great game.
Good: People forget that Coates was in the discussion as a potential first round draft choice coming out of college. He definitely had some question marks which caused him to fall to the third round of the NFL draft, but he has a ton of physical gifts. He has the size you want in an outside receiver to go with 4.4 speed and great leaping ability. As he showed in week five, he is the type of receiver who can get deep and make teams pay if they don’t keep a safety back to help out. He adds a very dangerous element to the Steelers considering how much Antonio Brown can punish teams on those short and intermediate routes which turn into 30 yard gains.
Aside from his physical gifts, the situation is about as good as it gets. Defenses need to focus in on Brown, which means Coates is going to see single coverage almost all the time. Not only is he going to see a ton of single coverage, but he has one of the best in the game at quarterback and not much competition at the position. Wheaton is a very average receiver without much to get excited about. DHB is what he’s always been, and Rogers hasn’t been able to translate his pre-season hype into production. None of them have the talent Coates has, so if he can continue to produce he is going to run away with the role opposite from Brown.
Bad: One of the major knocks on Coates coming out of college was the large number of drops. The drops have continued to be an issue for him. So far he has four drops on his 31 targets which is the highest drop rate of any receiver in the NFL with over 15 targets. He just doesn’t have natural hands. Not only that, but some of his drops seem to be concentration and technique related. There have been a fair number of receivers who are very productive even while having drop issues. Demaryius Thomas and Brandon Marshall come to mind. It isn’t the kiss of death, but it isn’t going to make many quarterbacks your best friend.
The other major issue people had with Coates is his lack of instincts for the position. I remember when we were doing a lot of the draft review of his class, I often talked about how he is a fantastic deep ball receiver who doesn’t know how to catch a deep ball. He did struggle when it comes to tracking the deep ball. He would often misjudge a ball in the air, slowing down when he should be keeping his speed up, resulting in an “overthrow”.
Ugly Truth: Coates is a very interesting receiver to look at. When you glance at his negatives, you would expect him to have an absolutely terrible catch rate. That isn’t entirely the case. I’m actually a little surprised he has a 61% catch rate. That isn’t a great number, but it is higher than I would expect. Maybe he’s just had a better than normal run, and he will drop down a little bit. Or maybe he learned a bit last year when he wasn’t on the field and he’s improved. The latter is quite possible because when you’re watching Brown everyday in practice, it would be hard not to pick up something.
I don’t think we can count on Bryant coming back, because the track record on players in his position isn’t very good. Anything the Steelers get from him is a bonus, so they seem to be progressing with the current group. Coates seems to be the clear favorite of the current bunch. He already has a lead on the rest of the pack, and I think week five was his coming out party. I don’t think he’ll be a consistently great receiver, and he still has issues in his game, but he has topped 50 yards every week this year. The lack of other pass catching talent means he should have a decent floor. With his athletic ability, the ceiling is definitely there as well.
Final Verdict: I’m a believer in Coates, and it might be worth your time to see what his price tag is in your leagues. It might be a little too high given his huge week, but it is also possible his current owner still thinks Bryant is going to come back in that role. I think Coates has enough talent to stay involved, and I have questions about if Bryant will ever be back. It is still early, but I think he’s showing he can be a solid WR3 with WR2 upside, and I’m looking to buy him if the price is right.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
