Strategy or Not, Here I Come: Sainio’s DLF Live Draft Recap

Dan Sainio Posted On August 13, 2016

Pre-Draft Strategy

As you may have seen previously on Twitter, I am not one to really “gameplan” before a draft, especially when it follows a seven hour car ride with my beautiful wife, three year old, and 3.5 month old boys. The draft had been on my mind for weeks, but towards the end of my travels all I could think about was getting out of that car! Anyway, I normally take startup drafts by the seat of my pants as I like to zig when others zag, and try to find value in each round rather than reaching for “my” guys. This can be very, very difficult in room full of sharks but if I am on my game, I like to think that I can hang with the best of them (I can’t). So, I tried to game plan even though we were all going in not knowing where we were going to pick, or how the board would break down.

Let’s dig into a little bit of the prep work that I did do before the draft, just to ensure that I at least remembered some names when it was my turn. The early morning hours of draft day (approximately 3am) were spent hand-writing league specific rankings, with nothing more than my trusty dynasty notebook, a mechanical pencil, and my phone loaded up with rankings and ADP. It’s impossible to know who will do what with each selection, unless you play with the same group of people all the time, so I wanted to be sure that I built a team I liked but also had market value in mind.

As I’m sure you have read, this is a superflex league so let us start with my plan at quarterback. I had no plan to take QB in the first two rounds, unless I picked between 10 and 12, and Cam Newton happened to slide. I want to start my QB selections somewhere between the third and sixth rounds, depending on what happens in front of me. Landing a young signal caller, like Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota is high on my list but only if I can’t get my hands on one of my top four. Beyond that, I hope to get a veteran with a few big seasons left in the tank, and then strictly upside in the back half of the draft. Having a strong QB core in superflex is ideal, but certainly not the rule. There are plenty of ways to win without them.

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The position I am worried about the least, even though it is a PPC (points-per-carry) league, is running back. In the rankings I composed specifically for the league, I didn’t look to running back until mid way through the second round, and even then I would be more likely to take a QB or WR that fell. I don’t plan to go zero RB, but if the values aren’t there, I think I can make it work without one until somewhere in the sixth to eight rounds. The hope is for players like Doug Martin or Mark Ingram to be there, but RB may be a hot commodity for those that can’t land one of their top receiver targets. There are plenty of opinions out there that say running backs win leagues, and also that they aren’t necessary to the core of a team because of the turnover at the position. I find myself somewhere in the middle of that, and I’m assuming I’ll be able to land some of my mid-round targets.

Now for the position that dynasty seems to revolve around: wide receiver. 15 of my top 24 happen to be at the position, so the chances are I’ll be able to land two of them. My first round pick was going to absolutely be a WR unless Cam was there at the end of the first. I have no intention to “win now” or “punt,” so I’ll be looking for the best values at the position throughout the draft. Loading up at WR is slightly on my mind, but in most cases I find myself going to other positions during drafts (zig, zag, yadda yadda yadda). Hopefully I’ll find some good WR value early, while others bite on the PPC and superflex settings.

Tight end premium is becoming more and more popular throughout the community, but unless it’s a 2:1 ratio I don’t see much upside in reaching for the position. I feel most comfortable grabbing my TE1 after the eighth round, unless a high end option slides. I’m sure at this point you’ve figured out my strategy for most positions: value, value, value.

Post-Draft Thoughts

Looking back at the draft, and my roster, I think I did well from the eight spot. I ended up with a pretty balanced roster that can certainly “win now,” but will also have plenty of value for years to come. I only see one pick as a slight reach, but drafting between Dan Meylor and Nick Whalen scared me quite a bit. As the draft went on, the beer started catching up with Dan, and the wet notebook with only NFL team names separated by division for Nick started to work in my favor. But, drafting around that many smart people in a live setting, it can get really difficult.

My plan to start WR-WR worked out, and I was able to grab two players I consider WR1s; Amari Cooper and Alshon Jeffery. Knowing that I had the cornerstone of my team locked in, I felt comfortable drafting Marcus Mariota in the third, who I trust for production now and in the future. The pick I mentioned above as my lone “reach” was Ben Roethlisberger in the fourth. I could very well have grabbed another WR there, but there was nothing that I loved value-wise. Drafting a back there didn’t even cross my mind.

Entering the fifth, I had every intention of drafting Sterling Shepard but the super team of Brian Malone and Ryan McDowell decided that they wanted to “make Dan mad.” That one hurt, but there was plenty of value to be had. I followed up my great start with Dorial Green-Beckham and Brandon Marshall in the fifth and sixth. That is a combination I love, because I get the upside that we all desire, and I get the production to compete. So through six rounds, I have two quarterbacks and four receivers, which is a start that I certainly can’t complain about.

Now that the big time players are starting to dry up, and I still don’t have a RB, I needed to look to fill those spots unless a player I loved fell into my lap, which unfortunately didn’t happen. I grabbed a personal favorite RB in the eighth, and floor play at the position in the ninth in Ameer Abdullah and Latavius Murray. I don’t love Murray by any stretch of the imagination, but he won’t be fighting for work until at least 2017. I’ll take the production now. So, of course, I end up going zero RB even though I truly hadn’t planned for it.

At this point, my lineup is pretty much rounded out, so I’ll talk about the later round picks that I really liked. I was able to land both the Buffalo Williams’ (Karlos and Jonathan) in the 14th and 16th, as well as Robert Griffin III in the 15th. All of those picks I really like, and thought I got some really good value. RG3 is my QB4, but has legitimate upside with the added PPC and now I just have to hope he’s healthy after his long hiatus. I fully planned to grab three or four QBs, and I was happy to land the group that I did (Teddy Bridgewater is my QB3). All said and done, I really like the team I finished with, and think I have a great overall balance. I’ll likely look to add some veteran RB help during the remainder of the off-season, in hopes to round off my squad.

Which team did the best you ask? I rated each team post draft, based on my own rankings, and immediately fell in love with what Brian and Ryan did with their super-owner tandem. With a great balance throughout their squad, and the best QB trio in the league, they should be set up to do very well. This is mostly because they drafted Sterling Shepard, but also because their team is just really well put together. Kudos, fellas.

One final note: I want to sincerely thank everyone that came out and made this possible. I feel so fortunate to have shared that day with all of my fellow DLFers. This group is truly first class, and it was very humbling to draft and spend time with many great minds. Also, an enormous thank you to the partners for making it all possible. You have put together a powerhouse in this industry, and I am very thankful to be a part of this elite group.

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