The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and we may answer them in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions.
2) Help us help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements, PPR or non-PPR, etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
Would you trade Julio Jones for Brandin Cooks, Doug Baldwin, Matt Jones and Ezekiel Elliot? Thank you in advance. Matthew Arcadi
For me personally, there are certain players who are practically untradeable in dynasty leagues unless someone is willing to overpay to the point you can’t turn it down. Julio Jones is one of those players and this is one of those instances. Let’s take a look at what these pieces are worth.
Julio finished 2015 as the WR2 in points per game in PPR leagues with 371.1 points, good for 23.194 per contest. According to Ryan McDowell’s dynasty ADP data, he has a current average draft position of 3.83 in July, behind only Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. With the departure of Roddy White in Atlanta and the addition of Mohamed Sanu to replace him, Julio should see 200+ targets this year. So why trade that sort of elite production?
The package of Brandin Cooks, Doug Baldwin, Matt Jones and Ezekiel Elliot is one heck of an offer. Cooks and Baldwin both finished 2015 inside the top 20 in points per game, Cooks with 15.894 and Baldwin with 16.806, and you can easily make the argument these players are still improving. Cooks is the centerpiece of the Saints passing game now and Drew Brees is as a dependable fantasy producer as anybody out there. Early offseason reports have been extremely positive around Cooks’ outlook for 2016. It’s possible he’ll be mentioned in the same breath as Jones entering 2017. His ADP of 13.83 is already good for 16th overall in startup drafts.
Looking at Baldwin’s ADP of 54.50 at 55th overall, WR37, tells me he is criminally undervalued coming off of his breakout 2015 season. His WR17 finish with 78 receptions for 1,069 yards and 14 touchdowns were easily career highs in each category. Even though all the offseason hype is currently surrounding Tyler Lockett, his ADP is an alarming 37.67 or 35th overall. I’m not saying you don’t want Lockett, I’m saying you don’t want Lockett a round and a half more than Russell Wilson’s true WR1 and security blanket. With Marshawn Lynch retired and a stable of question marks at the running back position, this offense will run through Wilson and Baldwin. He’s a comfortable WR2 and an incredible WR3.
Ezekiel Elliot is without the question the 2016 rookie to own. His value is sky high assuming the domestic violence claims prove to be false accusations as being reported. His current ADP sits at 11.67, 11th overall in startups. People are 100 percent on board with the former Buckeye running behind that beefy Dallas offensive line. Projections for Zeke have been very optimistic, if not aggressive, but if he can handle the work load it’s not ridiculous to believe he can finish 2016 as a top three running back.
The throw in piece to this massive haul just happens to be another young running back who happens to be the lead dog in his team’s backfield. Matt Jones will take over the reins vacated by Alfred Morris’ departure in free agency and is actually a better fit for Jay Gruden’s style of play. He’s a poor man’s version of Giovani Bernard, a player Gruden had for one year in Cincinnati. Jones has the opportunity to cement himself as the Redskins running back of the future but if he can’t handle the gig he could easily find legit competition in the backfield next fall. As the fourth best piece of this offer, I’ll gladly take him on and wait.
Having said way too much, I’m taking the “untradeable” tag off of Julio Jones and welcoming four new assets to my squad.
Looking to improve my running back depth, I have Mark Ingram, Devonta Freeman and Dion Lewis but I don’t really trust Lewis as the third option on my team. I’m loaded at wide receiver with Julio Jones, AJ Green, Mike Evans, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Martavis Bryant, Brandon Lafell and Danny Amendola. I have Andrew Luck and would love Ty Hilton or Donte Moncrief. A member in my league has Ed Lacy and both of those receivers. What should I give up to get a combo of Lacy and a wide receiver? What would be fair? I want to buy low on Lacy before the great year he will have, in my opinion. Just for your knowledge allowing you to answer better… the remainder of my lineup is Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, Gronk, Antonio Gates, Dwayne Allen, James White, Tevin Coleman, Mason Crosby and Boswell. Defensively I have Sean Lee, Luke Keuchly, Deonne Bucannon, Kawann Short, Calais Campbell, Morgan Burnett, Jenkins, and Levy on IR. Please help. If you have a better idea than getting Lacy let me know. Should I trade a stud to get Elliot? I won the league so I have 0% chance of getting a top rookie selection. I will be picking 10th. -Michael
This is one of the longer questions we’ve gotten but the answer might be shorter. I think this comes down to how you view Devonta Freeman moving forward. Personally, I’m not a big believer in him repeating his 2015 output. Dion Lewis is like any other New England running back, completely unpredictable from week to week, let alone trying to predict his dynasty value. With the hype around Moncrief, Hilton and Luck bouncing back in 2016 you might not get the opportunity for a discount. My initial offer would start with Freeman and Fitzgerald for Lacy and Moncrief. Depending on what his roster looks like, I would be willing to add one of my backup quarterbacks, tight ends or a linebacker like Sean Lee or DeAndre Levy. In a 10-team league I’m guessing he has a serviceable quarterback, but if not, that’s how you sweeten your side of the deal. The uncertainty of Dion Lewis will still be safeguarded, to a degree, with James White.
I’ve been playing dynasty for awhile now and mainly with the same group of guys. It’s a fairly competitive group but I feel ready to step it up. I’ve been thinking of joining a higher dollar league ($500-$1000) in hopes of upping the stakes and the competition. Any recommendations on where to go to get in with a reliable and reputable group of strangers? – Tony
Any time you’re upping the stakes like this it has to make you nervous if you don’t personally know at least the majority of the other owners, right? The safest option is “VersusFantasyFootball”. They are a friend of DLF and offer plenty of different league options from redraft to dynasty with entry fees starting at $50 all the way up to $2,500. They use LeagueSafe, so your money is secure. I would start there. If you don’t like what you see there, I suggest you start with finding a reputable commissioner, someone like Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23). The next place I would look is the DLF Forums in the “Help Wanted- League Openings or Owners Needed” section or contact our forum moderator Brian Malone (@JulesDynasty). What better place to find dynasty addicts with similar interests than in the best forums of the dynasty community? If you don’t find what you’re looking for, start your own thread! My final suggestion is a bit riskier, Twitter. Twitter has quickly become the world wide fantasy forum. At any given time you can reach any and everyone with 140 characters. The dynasty community is quick to retweet the “ looking for a league” tweets.
After seven different trades, I’m now ready to draft. (I have 1.07 in a three round rookie draft). I was just wondering how do you think I did? I sent Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Jones, Jordan Matthews, a 2016 first, three 2016 seconds, one 2016 third and a 2017 second and third. In return I received Alex Smith, Willie Snead, and four 2017 firsts. I also believe that two of those firsts can be top three picks at worst. They are from perennial basement dwellers and both teams still won’t be that good, even with good drafts this year. –Brian
Quite simply, I think you killed it. Rookie fever can make owners do some crazy things. I wish you would’ve mentioned where the 2016 first was. The only way I would pause is if it was 1.01 (Zeke Elliot). Otherwise the possibility of adding four prospects from next year’s class far outweighs the secondary and tertiary tiers of this year’s class. Laquon Treadwell and Corey Coleman are the next best thing but I’d trade my chance of acquiring one of those for four of Juju Smith-Schuster, Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, Mike Williams, Malachi Dupre, Corey Davis, Elijah Hood, Christian McCaffery and any other prospect who pops up during this season. This is the kind of long term deal to take a middle of the pack squad to perennial contender and the best part is, you’re sending an NFL backup quarterback, an unproven running back, a wide receiver fighting to find his place in a new offense and handful of long shot scratch-offs.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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