The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and we may answer them in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions.
2) Help us help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements, PPR or non-PPR, etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1) I have been recently offered a trade in this league and am having a difficult time evaluating it due to the unique set up. I traded away some of my highest start up picks (young WRs) and some good future picks in order to acquire Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan (already had Brady on the roster, as well as Sanchez to use as trade bait). I have been offered Jordan Matthews, Eric Decker and Pharoah Cooper in exchange for Amari Cooper. In a normal 12 team league where you can’t start five wide receivers in a week this would be a no-brainer turn down. Due to the size and complexity of this league, (24 teams, start 1QB, 1 Superflex, 1RB, 2WR & 3 Flex) I feel this is a great offer as it gives me two pieces for this season and two pieces for the future (Matthews filling both) for the price of one.
Thanks for your input. – Tom Bettino, Ottawa, Ontario
Tom, this is really is a complicated scenario. I wish I could see your entire roster. My assumption is you’re closer to a “win now” roster than a balanced roster. I doubt any other team in this league is rolling out quarterbacks equal to Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady or Matt Ryan each week.
Based on the information you’ve given me I would advise against trading Amari Cooper for the package of wide receivers and here is why, Jordan Matthews is a risky stock right now. If I own him I’m not looking to actively sell him but he’s not someone I’m looking to acquire either. With Doug Pederson bringing his offense to Philadelphia it casts a shadow of uncertainty over Matthews. He has done the majority of his damage in the pros operating from the slot of Chip Kelly’s offense. The Eagles have spent a lot of this offseason trying to acclimate Matthews to the outside, an experiment which allegedly didn’t go very well and one which was quickly abandoned. If Pederson runs more two tight end sets with Brent Celek and Zach Ertz, where does that leave Matthews if he’s not going to get time on the outside? Do I believe Matthews is heads and shoulders better than Nelson Agholor and Rueben Randle, absolutely. Do I think Matthews sees fewer targets than last year, unfortunately.
As for Decker and Pharoah Cooper, I like Decker in the short term. I believe Ryan Fitzpatrick will eventually re-sign with the Jets and we know what to expect from Decker. Cooper on the other hand is a gamble I’d rather not take if it means I have to risk Amari to do it.
My best advice is to move forward with your original plan of moving Brady, Sanchez or even Matt Ryan if you want another wide receiver. Someone in that league has to be in awful shape at quarterback.
2) I am able to keep David Johnson, Jordy Nelson, and Matt Jones for really good bargains, 8th, 13th, and 17th rounds respectively in my 12-man IDP league. In the first round, would you pass up Antonio Brown or Julio Jones for Gronk, or is the value of the top two WRs too great? ODB and Gurley are already off the board and I don’t think Bell/AP is the right fit. If I get slotted at 1.04 or 1.05, I also have a chance at AJ Green or Dez Bryant. If Brown, Julio, and Gronk are off the board, should I target Green or Dez ahead of Bell/AP? – Denzel, Saskatchewan
Our readers from Canada are well represented this week. Denzel, your keeper situation puts you in a pretty good spot to take best player available. While I’m not super high on Matt Jones from a fantasy perspective this year, I understand the value of keeping a starting running back with such a late-round flier pick. It puts you in position to acquire higher impact players with your high round picks.
Since this league is non-PPR it does bump the running backs up a bit and the pass catchers a little unless they’re elite touchdown scorers. Being able to pair Julio Jones with David Johnson for the next 3-4 years is something I wouldn’t pass up. Since who will be available is out of your hands I will rank these players as follows: Julio, Bell, Gronk, Brown, Dez, AJ Green and AP. I only rank AP last because of his age versus the other players listed. The potential longevity of these players being on your roster is something to take into consideration.
3) I’m in a distance-scoring, half point PPR, keeper league where all TDs are either six, nine or 12 points, depending on length, EVEN FOR QB’s. I can keep three of the following players, but it will cost me my draft pick in the round listed. My best options are Kelvin Benjamin (6th), Jeremy Hill (8), Allen Hurns (10), Stefon Diggs (10th or 9th if necessary), Delanie Walker (13), Jordan Matthews (14) and Blake Bortles (15). I’m leaning heavily towards Benjamin and Hurns but am having trouble with the third. I’m not a big fan of Hill, but he won’t cost much for an 8th. And I agree in general that there is so much depth at QB that it doesn’t make sense to keep one, but with the scoring system heavily favoring QBs, I’m not sure I can pass on Bortles for a fifteenth-round pick. Also for what it’s worth, I should be able to draft either Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell or Adrian Peterson who are all free agents and I pick third overall. Who would you keep? –John, Rhode Island
John, I too would keep Kelvin Benjamin for a sixth and Allen Hurns for a 10th-round pick. For your final keeper I think it comes down to one of three players, Bortles, Matthews and Jeremy Hill. I would not keep Hill because with this scoring setup you’re probably never going to get any distance bonus with Hill. Pretty much all of his damage is done inside the 10-yard line and that kind of production is replaceable.
Matthews, who I talked about in depth while responding to the first question, would potentially give you a player who could easily give you distance bonus touchdowns at any given moment. He has a nose for the end zone from anywhere on the field but with a new offense and potentially a rookie signal caller from a Division-II school taking snaps at some point this season I would pass on him as well to keep Mr. Bortles.
Bortles played out of his mind last year throwing for 4,428 yards and scoring a total of 37 touchdowns to 23 total turnovers. With playmakers like Allen Robinson, Hurns and even Julius Thomas (who I think has a huge rebound season) at his disposal, Bortles in the fifteenth round presents quite a bit of value in this scoring setup. I believe he would be selected before the double digit rounds if you were to release him. The added bonus of double dipping those long touchdowns with Bortles and Hurns is not something to be overlooked either.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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