IDP Winners and Losers – AFC South

Mike Woellert
 This article is written by 4for4 IDP writer, Mike Woellert. Our redraft partners at 4for4 were gracious enough to loan Mike to us during the NFL off-season and we look forward to seeing more of his work in the coming months.

The NFL Draft has concluded, now it’s time to sort through the rosters and take a look at who came out a winner, and on the flipside, a loser.

Today, I look at the AFC South.


Dante Fowler, DE JAX

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There are a myriad of Jaguars I could tab as winners on draft night, as the team had a solid draft overall. However, I do think one of the bigger winners was Dante Fowler. Fowler suffered a season-ending injury in his first practice, before even playing a snap in 2015. All indications are pointing to him being ready for 2016, but with the dearth of talent available in the draft from a pass rushing standpoint, Jacksonville didn’t pull the trigger. This tells me they are confident in Fowler’s timetable for return. He and Malik Jackson make a formidable duo, and he should be able to contribute 70% of the defensive snaps, which could be on the high end for coming off a serious injury. Sen’Derrick Marks is also going to relieve some of the pressure on Fowler, as he’ll garner some attention up the middle. The former first-round pick has no serious competition for snaps on the edge. I think Fowler’s upside remains high coming into Jacksonville’s off-season programs, and he is projected to be their LEO rusher this season.

Hassan Ridgeway, DE IND

I’m going a bit deeper here, but Ridgeway lands in a situation in Indianapolis where there isn’t a whole lot of talent on the defensive line. Outside of Henry Anderson, who may start the season on the PUP list, the Colts have Arthur Jones and Kendall Langford. Jones has already taken a pay cut, and played in only nine games in 2015 due to an ankle injury. Langford looked more comfortable at the five-technique in Indy’s 3-4 scheme, and recorded a career-high in sacks (seven) in 2015.  Will the Colts depend on Langford to contribute 800-plus snaps in 2016? Ridgeway could prove to be a steal if the Colts coach him up and develop him the right away. Ridgeway doesn’t miss tackles, takes on contact and has smooth movement, which allows him to be a productive pass rusher from the interior. The Colts could move Ridgeway all over the line, but is bulky to play inside. He’ll be someone to monitor throughout the Colts’ training camp.

Kevin Dodd, OLB TEN

Dodd was taken 33rd overall by the Titans, and will step in as 3-4 edge rusher. Dodd had one season as a starter and broke out in a major way, notching 23.5 tackles for loss and 12 sacks. What’s more impressive was his play during the National Title game, where he produced five tackles for loss and three sacks. Dodd is relentless and a perfect fit for Dick LeBeau’s defense. My only concern is that he’s moving from a defensive end to EDGE/OLB. He should still be productive, but his IDP value will be in big play scoring formats. However, another strength of his is that he’s a solid run stopper and can take on contact and breakaway from blocks. He may be a two-down ‘backer from the outset, but the upside for passing downs will be there as he can get to the quarterback.


Derrick Morgan, OLB TEN

Morgan will now have to look over his shoulder for the emergence of Dodd. Not only that, but Morgan is also dealing with a torn labrum suffered in October. He hasn’t yet been cleared to resume practicing, despite being on schedule with rehab. Morgan still notched 4.5 sacks in ten games last year, but I don’t think the Titans would’ve spent a second round pick on Dodd if they didn’t plan on using him right away. Morgan’s IDP stock definitely takes a hit here.

Dwayne Gratz, CB JAX

It was hard to find any losers in Jacksonville, however, Gratz’s stock in CB-required leagues definitely took a hit. Jacksonville added Prince Amukamara in free agency and drafted one of the top players in Jalen Ramsey, who should start right away. It’s entirely possible he doesn’t make the roster at all, finishing with no INTs and one defended pass in 12 games in 2015.


mike woellert