2016 Rookie Bust Mock: Round One
Most rookie mock drafts you see like to focus on the strengths of each prospect selected. This isn’t one of those drafts.
At this point in the process, dynasty owners are used to hearing about the impressive burst and agility of Ezekiel Elliot and the eye popping quickness of Corey Coleman. For good reason, we tend to focus our attention on the positives in each prospect’s game. In this mock however, we’ll try to throw up the red flag on some of the weaknesses that our favorite rookies possess and explain which ones have the most potential to “bust.”
To be clear, we’re not necessarily proclaiming a player as a bust in this exercise. We just want to shine a light on some of the things that should concern dynasty owners going into their rookie drafts.
There was only one rule for who was eligible for this three-round mock draft. To make sure all players taken were relevant dynasty picks, any player selected had to be ranked as a top-48 overall rookie according to DLF’s rookie rankings.
Let’s get started with round one.
1.01 – Laquon Treadwell, WR Mississippi
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Graham Barfield’s thoughts: I’m sure this pick will make some eyes roll.
What’s weird is I am actually not anti-Treadwell and I think he’s gotten way too much flak over the past months for his production, 40-time, etc. However, I do think he presents the lowest floor out of the top-3 rookie prospects not named Zeke Elliott or Josh Doctson. His age-adjusted production is fine in a vacuum, but there are some indications for concern that need to be unpacked.
First, while his game is more bullying and power over speed and finesse it’s not like he turned that style of play into fantastic production in his final year at Ole Miss. Yes, he was 20-years-old and he was coming off a major leg/ankle injury — but that does not mean he is absolved from downside risk. I’ve seen Treadwell compared to Dez Bryant and Brandon Marshall and while the style of play and how they win is comparable, the pre-NFL comparisons fall apart.
Treadwell accounted for 29% (44th percentile) of Ole Miss’ yardage and touchdowns in college. Bryant broke the dominator rating system with a 99th percentile score (62.5% of yardage and touchdowns) at Oklahoma State and Marshall accounted for 42.5% of UCF’s offense (83rd percentile). I’m not saying production is the be-all-end-all with wideouts nor am I saying Treadwell can’t become like Bryant or Marshall, but let’s not act as if he’s a slam-dunk prospect. I’m still mildly on board with Treadwell, but I’m also not sold he’s worth a top-3 investment. We’ll see how the NFL values him in the coming days.
My thoughts: I didn’t roll my eyes when I saw Treadwell go number one overall in this exercise but my eyebrows certainly raised.
Treadwell’s lack of a top gear and struggles versus press coverage against top end corners has been covered many times over this off-season. His drops have also been a problem at times but it’s not enough to sour me on his upside. Despite his deficiencies, he’s still the top wide out in this class and second overall pick on my board because of his size, physicality, route running and killer instinct to go get the ball in traffic.
1.02 – Derrick Henry, RB Alabama
Matt Price’s thoughts: Henry scares me more than any other player in this draft. He is a size / speed freak of nature but the film shows a top-heavy player that has balance issues and trouble cutting at greater than a 45-degree angle. He does most of his damage when he gets into the secondary and needs to go to a team which has a line that can get him there. This limits the number of ideal landing spots a great deal. In my opinion, Henry needs to go to a good inside zone running team or he could be a disappointment. The range of outcomes for Henry seems far greater than any other running back in this draft class.
My thoughts: Henry belongs towards the top of this mock draft. To go along with the things Matt mentioned above, he also lacks the eye-popping downhill burst you like to see from a powerful back that does a majority of his damage between the tackles and lacks the pass catching qualities to be a factor as a receiver. Currently being selected as the sixth rookie off the board, the risk may outweigh the rewards when it comes to Henry.
1.03 – Corey Coleman, WR Baylor
Jacob Feldman’s thoughts: There are an awful lot of people who are very high on Coleman. In fact, I’m one of them. He’s comfortably inside my top five receivers. However, in my opinion, he is one of if not the riskiest pick likely to come off the board in the top half of the first round. He has a ton of talent, but the concerns stem from how that talent will transition to the NFL. I’m going to put a name out there, and some people won’t like it, but the concerns are similar to when Tavon Austin was in the draft. Coleman is obviously a bit bigger than Austin, but not by much. Coleman is an explosive playmaker, but the transition could be tricky.
My thoughts: Like Jacob, I’m quite high on Coleman’s upside. Also like Mr. Feldman, I see the risk associated with the former Baylor Bear.
To go along with his below average size (5’-11”, 194 pounds), Coleman is a bit of a one trick pony. Far better when running away from the quarterback on vertical routes, he struggles at times on the short to intermediate stuff due to struggles against more physical defenders. When you add in his drops, it’s easy to see why Coleman is such a high risk, high reward prospect.
1.04 – Ezekiel Elliott, RB Ohio State
Trevor Bucher’s thoughts: While Zeke is pretty much the consensus 1.01, he does come with his fair share of risk. Recent rumors connect him to drugs and this isn’t the first time he has been in the news for off-field issues. When you couple this with the recent propensity for highly drafted RBs to stumble out of the gate in the NFL, this year’s pre-draft darling carries a lot of bust risk. He also has a pretty decent shot at being drafted by a bad team, and that only adds to it. Zeke was also the beneficiary of some outstanding blocking in his time at OSU, and transitioning from the college game with an amazing O-line to the NFL on a (most likely) bad team will lead to a learning curve. I still like him, but he is no sure thing.
My thoughts: In my opinion, Elliott is the prospect with the least risk of busting. With three-down potential and incredible burst and vision, he’s perfectly built to be a top fantasy producer for years to come.
With that said, Trevor makes some good points and the old adage of – the bigger they are, the harder they fall – might apply here. Instead though, it would be – the higher they’re drafted, the harder they fall – if he happens to struggle, even on a small scale.
1.05 – Devontae Booker, RB Utah
Jeff Miller’s thoughts: In the interest of full disclosure, I should have taken Will Fuller here, but thought it would be fun to get the angry Voxer message from DLF scribe Izzy Elkaffas when he saw my pick. (Izzy loves Booker more than I love Tom Selleck.) That said, there are reasons to think he may bust.
The biggest knock against the former Ute is his lack of speed, something his inability to run this spring (due to meniscus surgery) did nothing to assuage. When I watch Booker’s film, he does seem a bit one-speed for my tastes. Fortunately, the youngster is a complete back in every other sense, so overcoming a lack of breakaway speed may be doable.
My other concern comes down to durability. It isn’t that Booker has spent large swaths of his career injured, but he runs very physically for a guy built more like Matt Forte than Eddie Lacy. How he will hold up against the bigger, faster, more physical NFL is anybody’s guess.
My thoughts: Booker is currently being drafted at the top of the second round in rookie drafts which isn’t bad value considering many see him as a three down tailback. There are a couple of red-flags to keep in mind that could bust his bubble, however.
Booker’s below average size (5’-11”. 219 pounds) as well as the questionable speed Jeff mentioned may have been good enough to net him 1,261 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns in ten games as a senior but that was against PAC-12 defenses. Things will change dramatically when he suites up on Sundays. Overall, Booker benefited from a big workload against average-at-best talent while at Utah and that may not translate to the NFL.
1.06 – Tyler Boyd, WR Pittsburgh
Ryan McDowell’s thoughts: While Tyler Boyd is still being viewed as a likely first round rookie pick in dynasty drafts, it seems like he has far more detractors than believers. Boyd racked up huge numbers in his time at Pittsburgh, but was getting the ball near the line of scrimmage on a large number of plays. While he has shown a high level of toughness, especially when considering his usage at Pitt, he lacks the athleticism of other receivers in this class. Boyd is a player I’d be happy to take a shot on, but I don’t think he will prove worthy of his expected first round draft position.
My thoughts: Once considered an elite dynasty prospect, Boyd was exposed over the last year for his lack of foot speed which gave him trouble getting separation against man coverage and kept him from making big plays with his legs once he got the ball in his hands. Despite his excellent hands, it may be his feet that keep him from busting out, and could potentially make him straight out bust.
1.07 – Leonte Carroo, WR Rutgers
My thoughts: As a big fan of Big Ten football, I got to watch Carroo play a lot during his final year with the Scarlet Knights and I liked what I saw from him relative to where he was being drafted. After all, he carried a rookie ADP in the mid-to-late second round which was good value for a developmental receiver that needs to sharpen his routes and lacks deep speed. Fast forward to draft season and Carroo is being taken in the top-five in many rookie drafts. That’s far too pricy and way too risky for me, considering that on top of the on-field concerns, he’s shown a lack of maturity off the field which has led to suspensions in the past. Carroo would have been my number one overall pick in this mock had I held it.
1.08 – Will Fuller, WR Notre Dame
George Kritikos’ thoughts: Fuller has consistently remained part of the late first round rookie conversation since the end of the college football season. His upside certainly warrants this slot, but the downside is much lower than many of his first round compatriots. Fuller has a slender frame and hands that can nicely be called inconsistent. These attributes do not endear a receiver to a coordinator or head coach, even if the speed can be a game changer. Fuller could become a great complement to a top receiver, like in Houston or Cincinnati, but the struggles with body catches and the substandard run blocking could put Fuller on a path to a situational option.
My thoughts: The biggest red flag associated with Fuller is his hands. Consistently allowing the ball to get into his body rather than plucking out of the air with his hands while in college, he’s certain to find himself in the dog house with an NFL coaching staff if he doesn’t change his ways. Combine that massive weakness with questionable route running and below average size (6’-0”, 186 pounds) and Fuller has the potential to bust dynasty owners’ bubbles.
1.09 – Michael Thomas, WR Ohio State
Izzy Elkaffas’ thoughts: It would have been a coin flip for me had Will Fuller been available as well, but Michael Thomas has an ADP a handful of spots ahead of Fuller so he probably would have been my 1.01 regardless. I hear how great of a route runner Thomas is, but let it be clear, he’s nowhere near polished enough to make an immediate impact like we’ve seen in recent years. He has very unnatural technique and is always fighting himself. NFL corners will eat Thomas up. The most amazing thing that everyone glossed over was that 47% of his production came against four awful teams (Rutgers, Illinois, Western Michigan and Maryland). The other nine games he produced 415 yards total. He’s a height/weight/speed receiver that we’ve seen hundreds of times. Don’t let it fool you again.
My thoughts: A prospect I thought would be taken in the top-five in this mock as well, Thomas has many strengths but also has some glaring holes to his game. A below-average route runner, he struggles regularly to change directions at the top of his route and has trouble with physical corners re-routing him in press coverage. Combine that with a lack of aggressiveness with the ball in the air and I see an inconsistent receiver that is a big risk in the middle of the first round in rookie drafts which is where he is currently being picked.
1.10 – Josh Doctson, WR Texas Christian University
Nathan Powell’s thoughts: Doctson will play his first NFL game three months short of his 24th birthday. He didn’t eclipse 500 receiving yards until his Junior season, he’ll likely go in the top 4 of most rookie drafts and I think that makes him the riskiest of that top prospects (Elliott/Treadwell/Coleman/Doctson) and one of the riskiest players in this draft.
My thoughts: Another wide out that struggles at times as a route runner, Doctson has trouble shaking defensive backs due to questionable footwork when changing direction which leads to rounded routes. He more than makes up for his deficiencies in that department however, with incredible vertical explosion and excellent effort. I was relatively low on him earlier in the process but the more I watch him, the more I like him. That said, he’s still the ultimate boom or bust prospect in this draft.
1.11 – Kenneth Dixon, RB Louisiana Tech
Bruce Matson’s thoughts: I have Dixon ranked as the second best running back in this draft class behind Ezekiel Elliott. Even though he’s one of my favorite players coming out for the draft, it would be ignorant of me to be totally agnostic to any of the red flags on his profile.
Competition is a big issue for me, Dixon played against lower level opponents and he doesn’t have much experience running against tough defenses. The speed of the game will be a lot faster and the creases he will have to run through will be a lot smaller in the NFL compared to what he experienced playing against Conference USA level of competition. Like most running backs, he faces the risk of being selected by a team that plans on using him as part of a committee, killing any opportunity for a large workload. Depending on his landing spot, he’s going to be drafted in the latter portion of the first round in a lot of rookie drafts and that could be a heavy premium to pay for a running back that might not get an opportunity or a full workload.
My thoughts: Dixon is one of my favorite late first round picks due to his angry running style, excellent vision and slippery moves in the open field. Although that translates to three-down potential, he also has red-flags such as his lack of top-end speed to pull away from defenders and a fumbling problem that has been an issue throughout his time at Louisiana Tech. With such a fierce running style and a propensity to finish runs by lowering his shoulder, Dixon will also worry owners that he could be susceptible to injury at the next level.
1.12 – Carson Wentz, QB North Dakota State
Eric Olinger’s thoughts: Any QB coming from division two being mocked in the top five is scary. Wentz didn’t light up the stat sheet in college and the fact his team didn’t miss a beat when he was hurt makes me wonder if the system made the player.
The positive side though is it appears the Eagles will land Wentz and have a plan to sit him for a year…at least.
My thoughts: Due to ideal size, good speed and a big accurate arm (not to mention what most that have studied him consider him to be a great work ethic both on the field and in the classroom), Wentz is my favorite quarterback prospect in this draft. With that said however, the stigma of jumping from the Missouri Valley Conference to the NFL is something he’ll have to overcome and will likely force him to sit for at least some time which is worth bearing in mind when considering him.
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