The Dynasty Doctor: Returning Quarterbacks

Editor’s Note: Injuries are a huge part of winning and losing each year in fantasy leagues. Staying abreast of injury situations is key, as knowing what to expect from your players health-wise in the short term can help you make educated decisions in managing your team. Lucky for us, we have a Doctor in the house. Dr. Scott Peak is an ABPN board certified neurologist and neuro-oncologist. He is also a dynasty football addict and a Senior Writer for Dynasty League Football. He’s excited to lend his expertise in medicine with hopes he may help the DLF Team and its followers better understand medical conditions and injuries that may impact NFL players and dynasty football owners.  

If you have a question for The Dynasty Doctor, just click here. Please remember The Dynasty Doctor is geared towards questions regarding medical science, injuries to players and their collective impact in fantasy football.

Larry submitted a question to the Dynasty Doctor, and we’re here to provide a second opinion.

Larry had some tough luck in 2015 with quarterback injuries, scrambling to replace Tony Romo, Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger. Quarterback is a deep position but took a beating in 2015. Add Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Marcus Mariota to that list of quarterbacks whose 2015 seasons were marred by injuries.

Will Romo, Flacco and Roethlisberger reward owners with a solid 2016 season? How is their dynasty value impacted by last season?

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Tony Romo

Let’s begin with Romo, whose 2015 season ended with a second re-injury of a fractured clavicle. The clavicle is most commonly fractured in the middle of the bone (86%). It takes six to 12 weeks for bone union to occur, and return-to-play is usually eight to 12 weeks for contact sports. A small case series evaluated clavicle fractures in NFL players, and found that surgery led to healing of bone in 8.8 weeks. Notably, four of seven players were treated without surgery and re-fractured their clavicle within a year (57%).¹ Surgery may help accelerate bone union compared to non-surgical treatment.²

It is curious that Romo did not have surgery for his first clavicle fracture back in 2010, and again when he first re-injured his clavicle in 2015. After his third clavicle fracture, he recently had surgery, reportedly a Mumford procedure. This procedure involves shaving down the distal end of the clavicle, and may also be used to treat AC joint sprains. I’m surprised that he hasn’t opted for hardware placement to facilitate bone union and reduce risk of re-injury.

I am generally steering clear of Romo in dynasty and re-draft formats. We may not have all details of the injury but after he has had three clavicle fractures, and yet opted not to have hardware placed to repair them, I am concerned enough at the prospect of re-injury that I am avoiding him in dynasty/redraft leagues.

Joe Flacco

Flacco sustained a torn ACL/MCL in November and underwent surgery in December. Flacco has been a durable player, and hadn’t missed a game from 2008 until last year. He’s looking at a six to nine month recovery time and that should give him a decent shot at returning to play when the regular season starts. Flacco doesn’t have a lot of wiggle room, and he’ll need a smooth rehabilitation to avoid missing regular season games. Still, I feel relatively confident that Flacco will be back under center when the NFL season starts in 2016. This injury shouldn’t adversely impact his dynasty value, yet his ADP is surprisingly 228, behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brock Osweiler. In February 2015, Flacco had an ADP 183, so clearly this injury did drop him further down the dynasty ranks. I think Flacco is an ideal QB2 available at a significant discount. I’m a buyer.

Ben Roethlisberger

Roethlisberger has a long history of getting banged up. Since 2006, Roethlisberger has had injuries to his shoulder, Achilles tendon, foot fracture, sprained ankles, fractured a bone in his throwing hand, dislocated a rib and sprained an MCL. That’s a long list. All told, he has missed 22 games in his career, or just under two games per year. He’s never missed more than four games, and doesn’t have a problem playing in pain. One thing that can’t be questioned is Roethlisberger’s toughness.

In terms of fantasy value, though, I’m starting to think that Roethlisberger may be overrated. Here are his rankings in fantasy formats since his rookie year in 2004:

2015 QB21

2014 QB6

2013 QB8

2012 QB21

2011 QB13

2010 QB18

2009 QB8

2008 QB16

2007 QB7

2006 QB10

2005 QB19

2004 QB21

Roethlisberger has never finished as a top five fantasy quarterback, has five top ten finishes and seven seasons where he didn’t place in the top 12. Injuries no doubt played a role but given he’s missed an average of two games per season, it’s not solely due to a reduction in volume.

He is still being drafted as a high-end dynasty quarterback, with an ADP 97, good for the QB6 in dynasty formats. The track record suggests he will get hurt and miss a few games, and that means dynasty owners need to have a solid back-up in place. Whereas owners of Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson can skimp a bit on their backup, investing in Roethlisberger means spending on a quality QB2, and that might take away opportunities to fill other roster needs. He is 34 years old, and that isn’t helping. In principle, I like Roethlisberger as a player, his surrounding cast is elite, and he has never sustained a long-term injury. Still, his fantasy production is not commensurate with his annual hype as a solid, cheap alternative to big ticket assets like Rodgers, Luck or Newton. I’m less enthusiastic about Roethlisberger in dynasty formats, and if I own him as my starter, I’m definitely looking to get a value QB2 like Flacco, Eli Manning or Ryan Fitzpatrick to fill in for Roethlisberger when he inevitably misses a few games. I would much rather have other less expensive quarterbacks in dynasty like Mariota, Philip Rivers or Blake Bortles. Rivers is being drafted as the QB14, and he’s the same age as Roethlisberger but has eight top 12 fantasy seasons. Rivers has three top five fantasy finishes, and Roethlisberger has none.

When it comes to investing in a quarterback for my dynasty teams, I’m not buying Roethlisberger. There are too many cheaper options with as good or better fantasy production to justify an investment in Roethlisberger. Add in his injury history and the need to buy a solid QB2, and it’s not worth it. I’m not actively buying Roethlisberger in dynasty formats unless he is available at a discount. Given his current valuation as dynasty QB6, now is a great time to sell him.

1. Evolving management of middle-third clavicle fractures in the National Football League. Am J Sports Med. 2010 Oct;38(10): pp 2092-6.

2. Nonoperative Treatment Compared with Plate Fixation of Displaced Mid-shaft Clavicular Fractures, A Multi-center, Randomized Clinical Trial. J Bone Joint Am, 2007 Jan;89(1): pp 1-10.

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