Dynasty Capsule: Seattle Seahawks

Ryan Finley

seahawkscapsuleEvery year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the regular season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

It’s hard to call 2015 a disappointing season for the Seattle Seahawks. After all, they were trying to become only the third team to make three consecutive Super Bowl appearances. But that final loss might have been a microcosm of the up-and-down nature of Seattle’s 2015 season. They turned a 2-4 start (when they looked far removed from the Super Bowl team of the prior two seasons) into a wild card spot, getting by the Vikings but running into the Panthers’ wall. And while the Carolina game had the looks of a total blowout, Seattle did turn in a near-historic comeback. However in the end, they spent Super Bowl Sunday at home, just like 30 other teams.

But hey, you’re not here for that. Let’s talk dynasty values!

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Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson

The quarterback position in Seattle begins and ends with Wilson. A dual-threat quarterback who seems to keep getting better, he had an excellent 2014 season with 3,400 yards passing, 849 yards rushing, and 26 total touchdowns. No, it wasn’t any 50 touchdown season like we’ve seen in the past, but those rushing yards are very valuable in fantasy.

Off-season discussions last year with Wilson revolved around whether he could repeat those rushing totals in 2015, and if not – would his value slide a bit? As it turns out those rushing totals did slide, but Wilson more than made up for it through the air. He finished 2015 with over 4,000 yards passing, added 553 rushing yards and upped his touchdown total to 35. That was good for about 24 ppg in fantasy, around the QB3 area for the season.

The thing about Wilson though, is that he still seems to have room to grow. He has better options at both wide receiver and tight end, and these could help push his value even higher. But how much can you value quarterback in single-QB leagues? It’s still tough to invest too much in the position when you can get decent options for cheaper. For me, a player like Wilson provides one more argument that 2 QB and Superflex leagues need to become the norm.

Tarvaris Jackson & Phillip Sims

While both of these players were on the roster, neither is worth much consideration, at least not right now. The question of who will be the backup in 2016 is still very much up in the air. Seattle could elect to go with Jackson again as the cheap veteran, but it’s too early to tell where they will go here. Wilson is also very young and very good, so I wouldn’t worry too much about his backup until we know who that actually is. Will they draft a quarterback? Pick up a different veteran? Who knows.

Running Backs

Marshawn Lynch

2015 was a lost season for Beast Mode. While Lynch has had minor injury issues in the course of his career, this was the first season in a while where he missed a significant amount of playing time. It also marked the first season since 2010 when he failed to reach 1200 yards rushing, as he managed only a little over 400 yards in seven games played. It’s unfortunate, because the times he did make it on the field he did pretty well.

But now all the talk is about retirement. This is really nothing new, as there was quite a bit of talk about that possibility last off-season as well. This time though, it might happen. Plus there’s another important fact – brace yourself for this – Lynch will turn 30 in April. Get out now, Dynasty friends. This ship is going down.

Unless, of course, you’re a shark and you realize offering a throwaway pick for a guy that could still play and produce next year might be worth a light risk. But then there’s this. (And yes, this was written when this tweet went out, during Super Bowl 50.)

Thomas Rawlsrawls

Lynch’s imminent retirement aside, Rawls is the guy most dynasty players want to talk about anyway. He was an undrafted free agent who came in for the injured Lynch and looked solid. If you picked him up late in your rookie draft last year, you are a very happy camper right now.

Here’s the problem. If you don’t have Rawls, you will have to pay quite a price to get him. He’s young, in a fantastic situation, and he’s already shown the ability to shoulder the load. That kind of running back doesn’t come cheap.

However, I have to be honest here – I wouldn’t pay it. There are a couple of main reasons for this. First, I’m not a believer in buying high in dynasty. There are exceptions to this, as there are for everything (like if you’re one solid running back away from a championship caliber team), but in general I avoid buying high. But more importantly, the fact is that I’m not sold on Rawls yet. Yeah, I know he looked good. And yes, I know he had a 200+ yard game already. And I also know I may look back and that and reflect on how stupid I was. He’s not particularly big, he’s not fast (and had one of the lowest speed scores in his class, as a matter of fact) and he was undrafted. (And this doesn’t even mention the character concerns with Rawls.) A caveat here is that I am more of a believer in the ability to play football over metrics, but I can’t ignore the metrics either. And what if Seattle drafts a running back in the first two or three rounds this year? I’m just not ready to be all-in. I could be wrong, and I will freely admit it if I turn out to be a bonehead on Rawls. But I’m loving life if I drafted him, but staying away at his current price if I didn’t.

Christine Michael

Oh yeah, they have that guy, too! In many ways, ‘CMike’ is the polar opposite of Rawls. Where Rawls is lacking in the metrics department, Michael was a combine superstar. While Rawls went undrafted, CMike was drafted in the late second round. And where Michael had huge expectations that went unmet, Rawls came out of nowhere to snatch a starting job and perform well in it.

But they also have a few things in common. Both have a small sample size of actual NFL game time performance, and both have character concerns. CMike washed out of a few opportunities in 2015, only to end up right back where he started with Seattle. Just when it seemed the dynasty community had given up on him (finally,) he had a couple decent games for the team that drafted him. Still, I wouldn’t rush out to buy him right away. He may compete to be the backup to Rawls next year, but there are still many questions about the Seattle backfield.

Wide Receivers

Doug Baldwin

He’s an undrafted 5’10” wide receiver who isn’t all that fast – say hello to Doug Baldwin. Now not all of his measurables are terrible – he does have decent burst and very good agility, but there isn’t anything about him from a physical standpoint that jumps out at you. All of these things could be forgiven if he had played beyond his physical tools, but prior to 2015 he was a WR2 at best.

But then 2015 happened – and more specifically, the second half of 2015 happened:

baldwin table

Baldwin blew the doors off the second half of 2015. The Seahawks also had a bye in week nine, splitting the season down the middle, and Baldwin’s production was split in exactly the same way. Whether this was coincidental or some sort of minor scheme change is hard to say.

So what does this mean? It could be a signal that the Seattle offense is transitioning to a heavier emphasis on passing. Wilson’s numbers in the second half of the season could point to this same possibility. But even if that is true, it’s doubtful that the massive touchdown explosion Baldwin enjoyed in late 2015 can be sustained. I expect Baldwin to be a somewhat reliable producer in fantasy, but believe his numbers will come back down to earth in 2016.

Tyler Lockett

Like Baldwin, Lockett is a little difficult to pin down. Another 5’10” receiver, Lockett does have more speed than Baldwin to better match his frame. He has also shown great elusiveness and agility as a return man. Like Baldwin, Lockett’s production rose in the second half of the season, but did not rise as starkly as Baldwin’s.

But how can we rank him? He’s shown great promise and has good upside. While 600+ yards and six touchdowns isn’t massive production from a rookie wide receiver, it’s a very good start. It’s also a positive sign that he improved as the season went on. Perhaps 2016 will see Seattle relying heavily on two 5’10” wide receivers. Also, if your league gives points for return yardage, Lockett’s value goes up significantly.

Jermaine Kearse

Kearse is different from the team’s two main receiving threats – he’s three inches taller, at 6’1”. He’s another in a long line of good-but-not-great Seattle wideouts. 2015 was his statistically best season, but considering he only barely bested the rookie Lockett in yardage and Lockett actually had one more touchdown, it wasn’t all that impressive. (This is especially true if you include Lockett’s return yardage.) He’s also a free agent, and signs point to him trying the market rather than give any kind of hometown sweetheart deal to the Seahawks. He could easily turn into the next overpaid wide receiver on some other team.

Paul Richardson

Richardson is a player with great physical tools who just hasn’t yet panned out in the NFL. Picked in the second round by the Seahawks in 2014, Richardson ran a 4.4 40 at the combine and also posted good agility and burst scores. He has decent height (at least for the Seahawks) at 6’0”, but has a slight frame at around 180 pounds. 2015 was largely a lost season for Richardson due to injury, while 2014 was a season where he just didn’t perform. He’s another one of that long list of players with a lot of the right physical tools, but hasn’t yet put it together on the field. He’s at least worth keeping an eye on.

Ricardo Lockette

The other Lockette has had 22 receptions in four years. Do you need to know anything else? Yes? He’s a free agent in 2016 and coming off a neck injury that landed him on IR. I’m not paying much attention to him, and neither should you.

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham

Last year, it would be hard to imagine Graham being ranked as low on the tight end list as he is today. But that was before the trade to Seattle and the patellar tendon injury in 2015. Graham was once the tight end 1A or 2, but he has now slipped out of the top ten for many. The Saints were a team that relied heavily on the passing game, and Graham was at the very center of it. When the move was announced, most expected some kind of dropoff for Graham in Seattle. But some (including myself) thought the yardage totals would suffer a little but he would be a force in the red zone, and make up for any yardage loss with touchdowns. But to be fair, Graham did miss a full five games in 2015, and his yards per game totals were similar to 2014 in New Orleans. The problem is that 2014 was an off year for him as well. Only a high touchdown total (10) saved him in 2014.

So is this Jimmy the “new normal,” or will we see a return to form in 2016? If you ask me, it depends mostly on his recovery from his significant knee injury. If he can get close to his former self physically, I think he can succeed in Seattle, especially if the offense is indeed turning more to the air.

Luke Willson

Willson is a player that many dynasty players targeted before Jimmy came to town. He’s a young, catch-first tight end (like Jimmy) and many thought he could produce well in the Seattle offense, if he could put it together. He showed some signs of life in 2014, but the move to acquire Graham put the kibosh on that whole story. He was able to get some playing time in late 2015 due to Graham’s injury, but you should expect him to take a back seat again in 2016. He’s not completely without value, but he’s a speculative pickup at best.

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