Reel Talk: David Johnson
When I sit down to refresh my dynasty rankings here on DLF, my process is pretty simple. I pull up a position, look at the name at the top, and ask myself if, in a vacuum, I’d rather own him or the next guy on the list. Rinse, repeat. About five hours later (really), I come out of my office sweaty, disoriented, and irrationally angry at Bill Belichick. If it wasn’t for running back, I’d be only one of those things, and it would have taken me half the time.
After Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell, things get hairy. The current consensus among our rankers puts Devonta Freeman third, with some slotting him as low as 11th. Mark Ingram occupies the three-hole for George Kritikos and myself, but carries a composite of seventh while not being ranked higher than eighth by any of our peers. Like I said, it’s a mess.
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If you read the headline, you know the subject of this edition of Reel Talk is the divisive David Johnson. As with Freeman and Ingram, Johnson’s average ranking, fourth in this case, doesn’t tell the whole story. He is my RB4, but is ranked as low as 12th, with two others putting him tenth. During a recent episode of the Filmetrx Podcast, my partner in crime, Nick Whalen, said Johnson isn’t in his personal top-five.
A statistical look at what Johnson did after he got the starting gig in week 13 paints a very rosy picture, but it isn’t altogether honest either. One of those games was against an Eagles’ D that allowed an astoundingly poor 4.57 yards per carry (YPC). With that in mind, here are some numbers, both with and without the week 15 Philly game included:
With his biggest outing of the year omitted, Johnson’s YPC drops a significant .63 yards. Worse still, his rushing touchdown pace goes from 11.4 per 16 games to 5.3. Of course, it is unfair to act like that game didn’t happen, but when our sample size is so small, we have to look at all angles to try and get as clear a picture as possible. This particular angle isn’t overly flattering.
Reel Talk is a film-centric series, so let’s cut the chit chat and get to the good stuff. And by that, I mean salacious pictures of a young man in action. (If you want to tell your significant other you read Reel Talk for the articles, we won’t blow your cover.) As always, my good friend Mr. Whalen is in town, providing a level of expertise and nuance I’m incapable of at this young stage of my film breakdown career.
Johnson Needs Polish
With 4.50 speed, the 6’1”, 225 pound Johnson is super fast for a big back. He has the size and wheels to run through, over, or past would-be tacklers, and when you watch a highlight reel of the explosive youngster, it’s hard not to get giddy. But highlights can be deceiving because they gloss over deficiencies, and in Johnson’s case, they almost never feature a play where he runs between the tackles.
Our first play takes us back to the Cardinals’ playoff embarrassment in Carolina. Down 17-0 late in the first half, Arizona finally got a drive together, culminating in back-to-back handoffs to Johnson. The second resulted in a touchdown, but the first didn’t. Here’s why.
As it will throughout the article, the yellow arrow represents where the play was designed for Johnson to go, while the red arrow shows where Johnson went.
Unfortunately for Arizona, a Panthers defender read the play perfectly, gaining leverage on Darren Fells (number 85) in an effort to close the hole. Upon seeing this, instead of shooting the small gap and taking what was there, Johnson commits a running back sin by bouncing a goal line run to the outside.
The unadvised cut towards the hash mark goes sour, as the hole that wasn’t there to begin with closes further. Instead of committing to the error and taking the one-on-one with the defensive back (circled in orange), Johnson reacts again, trying to get back to where he should have been in the first place, but because he is so close to Fells and the Carolina D, the rookie doesn’t have the room needed to make the cut.
The result is a short gain with zero chance to score. We can’t say that he would have gotten six had he followed the play design, but Johnson had two opportunities to run hard with only one defender between him and the end zone and he failed to try and capitalize on either situation, instead choosing to put his head down and burrow into a crowd.
Sticking with the same game, let’s fast forward a bit to the end of the third quarter, where the score is now 34-7. The Cardinals are operating out of the shotgun and call a draw play to Johnson. By the time Palmer hands it to him, the offensive line has already done its job.
This is one of the most unfortunate misreads in the entirety of the film I watched. The hole was where it was supposed to be, right in front of him, gaping, begging him to charge through it for an easy five yards. But Johnson saw Shaq Thompson (54) staring at him, some ten yards away, and decided to go the long way ‘round.
Because of his speed, Johnson made the corner, but Thompson was there waiting, cutting him off and forcing him back into the teeth of the defense for no gain.
In an effort to find something more positive, I hopped in the Wayback Machine and visited week 15. While I did find a gem that we will go over in a bit, I also found a couple megs, which, I assume, is the opposite of gems.
Whereas the first couple plays we’ve discussed are about not following play design, this is a prime example of Johnson’s poor vision. As you can see in the first photo, a large hole opens up on the right side when the center and right guard double up a defensive tackle. Johnson has tons of room from the point of the handoff to identify the hole and get to it.
The next two pictures show the point at which Johnson finally sees the hole from differing angles. You will note this happens nearly four yards after he took the handoff, illustrated by two blue lines.
As with the last pair of screen shots, the next two were taken at the same time, just from different angles. What we are showing here is Johnson giving up on the hole for reasons unexplained. My best guess is that he sees #95 moving towards the hole, or #72 fighting that way, and panics. As happens all to frequently, Johnson ends up in a tangle of linemen.
As is demonstrated in the play we just went over, even when Johnson sees the hole, the second he spies but a single defender heading for it, he bails. Is Johnson afraid of contact? Is he concerned he can’t win one-on-one? Or is the way he processes a developing play immeasurably flawed? Maybe Nick knows?
“This is a good point Jeff. I’m not sure we can put a finger on it, but I saw two different one-on-one plays against a cornerback in space where Johnson danced way too much, losing both battles. I was shocked each time it happened. This issue could be that he is afraid of contact, overthinks things, is unsure of how to use his power, or has a lack of confidence. Maybe all this is because Johnson has always been faster than his competition and just ran around everyone? With that no longer being the case, it could be, like other burners, including Reggie Bush and CJ Spiller, he doesn’t know how to use his skillset.”
On this next play, which was blocked perfectly, all Johnson has to do is follow his center. The first two photos make apparent that the hole is where it is supposed to be. The third shows Johnson decided he’d rather ignore that and do his own thing.
By now, I think we all know how this ends.
With the defense collapsing and the hole he should have run through in the first place still there, instead of just putting his head down and trying to grind a couple yards out of his bad decision, Johnson attempts to cut back. As we’ve seen in previous plays, he is out of room and out of time. A one yard loss ensues.
Here is Nick’s take on Johnson’s main issues:
“Vision and interior running encompasses many different components such as eyes, feet, anticipation, and timing. Running backs need to be slow to and then fast through the hole. Johnson is always in such a hurry, which makes him completely miss holes. His feet and momentum are going so quickly in one direction that he can’t easily make the cut back to the open hole. I also don’t see the ability to set up defenders by waiting on a cutback lane with anticipation, selling running in one direction to set up blocks and the flow of the defense, to then decisively cut back. It’s also concerning how many holes he just doesn’t see. Is it awareness? Does he need contacts?
The lack of winning his one-on-one matchups is another huge problem. Victory in those situations is the essence of being a running back. Not beating a linebacker sometimes is understandable, but consistently losing against or completely avoiding cornerbacks is inexcusable.”
Johnson & Johnson Doesn’t Make an Ointment for That
There are several times nearly every game where Johnson torches the defense so bad they reach for aloe vera. Those plays are almost universally the result of Johnson’s size/speed combination or pass catching prowess. This is no exception.
When coach Bruce Arians drew this one up, he intended for Johnson to follow behind the right guard, but because the center (on the ground, circled in green) blew his assignment, the play was doomed from the start.
With nowhere else to go, Johnson looked to the edge, outrunning the defender and forcing a missed tackle. The bad news is that while this was going down, two Eagles’ defenders beat the running back to the edge.
Luckily for Johnson, they actually over-pursue a bit, allowing him to cut it back upfield. Well, maybe lucky is the wrong word, because there wasn’t really anywhere to go there either.
Houston, we have a problem…..or, do we?
Somehow, Johnson comes out the other side of the pig pile with only two defenders to beat. A pair of well-executed stiff arms eliminates each of them on the way to a spectacular 47-yard touchdown.
As scintillating an effort as that was, it shares a common theme with many of Johnson’s more productive runs, in that the play wasn’t executed as designed. A disproportionate number of the back’s success comes on the heels of a missed assignment from an offensive lineman or an ill-conceived cut. We can only imagine how good the already productive Johnson would be if he was where he was supposed to be more often.
Fantasy Johnson > Real Life Johnson
After watching several hours of Johnson’s film and pouring over both the basic stats we provided above and advanced metrics compiled by people much smarter than me, I’m still torn. On one hand, I see a running back who isn’t actually a very good running back. Generally speaking, that’s bad. But Johnson isn’t a generally speaking type guy. Because he catches the ball so well and displays an explosiveness few his size can match, I’m not entirely sure it matters that he can’t tell the difference between a running lane and a bowling lane. Of course, this assumes he continues to play in an offense that throws the ball as often and as well as the Cards do. Without the pass game looks, Johnson is a much less exciting dynasty prospect.
To summarize the 2000 words you’ve already read in one succinct statement, this is a case of a guy who is a better fantasy football player than real life football player. Going back to the numbers from the intro, even without the Eagles game, Johnson posted a 292 point pace, which a top-five level. This speaks to his ability to dominate in fantasy, even if he has glaring holes in his on-field game.
If the Cards continue to air it out and are able to put up with the 15 unproductive touches to get to the five or six good ones, Johnson will justify his current cost. But if they tire of stalled drives due to his inability to reliably gain four yards on a simple dive play, or if Palmer regresses or gets hurt, Johnson could find himself in a soul sucking timeshare that limits his upside.
Nick came into this article with a slightly more negative opinion of Johnson than I had. I am as curious if any of our work has changed his mind. Let’s find out together.
“I wish I could tell you the plays we outlined were all of Johnson’s blunders, but I would be lying to you if I did. He misses many holes and really doesn’t have the tools to succeed as an inside runner in the NFL. Can he learn them? Sure, but he’s already 24 years old and not many running backs develop much beyond that point. However, unlike our Jeremy Hill Reel Talk, Johnson has the athletic and receiving ability to overcome subpar rushing to succeed as a FF asset.
“More games have transpired since the Filmetrx episode, when I stated David Johnson was outside of my top five dynasty backs. After many conversations with Mr. Jeff Miller, I think his receiving ability has to place him in my top five. However, I’m not buying at his ADP price point because I don’t see the upside. I avoid players that are placed near their ceiling at RB.”
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