The Devy Stock Market
The fantasy football stock market is constantly fluctuating and it is always important for us to know which players have a price that has become exploitable, whether it be to buy or sell. Pieces like this one have been fairly commonplace in the industry for a while in both redraft and dynasty, but I will be focusing on college players for devy dynasty leagues and how their week-to-week performances are affecting their price in those leagues.
Stock up
Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson
Watson is coming off arguably his best performance of the season thus far, passing for 383 yards and five touchdowns, along with 54 rushing yards and a score. He is already the top quarterback overall among DLF Devy rankers, but his performance this season along with the lack of a competition from the 2016 class of quarterbacks is only furthering his case.
Verdict: Buy in superflex, sell in 1QB. His price is now expensive in both formats, but I’m always willing to pay up at quarterback, especially a young one who has looked much better than his peers. In 1QB leagues, he’s very replaceable and if someone offers a quality NFL or college RB/WR, that’s when I would sell.
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Alex Collins, RB Arkansas
Collins is one of those names that I haven’t heard as much about this season, simply because he’s not seen as talented as players such as Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook or Leonard Fournette. Despite that, he is putting together a huge junior season for Arkansas. Outside of a rough outing against Alabama, Collins has a touchdown in all seven other games this season, and has rushed for 100 yards or more in six of them.
Verdict: Buy. Some may pass off Collins’ 173 yard, five touchdown performance as beating up on a bad UT Martin team, but I think it is impressive nonetheless. He has been one of the most consistent backs in college football so far this season.
Travis Rudolph, WR Florida State
After a solid freshman season where Rudolph posted a line of 38 catches for 555 yards and four touchdowns, he was putting up pedestrian numbers in his sophomore season. That is, until his big performance against Syracuse last week where he hauled in five passes for 193 yards and 3 touchdowns. The question devy players have to ask is whether his big game is a sign of progression, showing he can make the big plays, or if it was just a one-off.
Verdict: Buy. I liked Rudolph with Jameis Winston last season and I tend to think his lack of big plays so far has had more to do with FSU’s quarterback play than his talent.
Kareem Hunt, RB Toledo
For second time in as many weeks, a player from the previous stock down section has moved his way up. After not reaching the 100 yard mark since week three of the college football season, it looks like Hunt may have returned to his sophomore season form on Wednesday against Northern Illinois, with 25 carries for 140 yards and two touchdowns.
Verdict: Hold. I’m not selling because I like his talent, but this is also not the best time to be buying after his best performance of the season.
Stock Down
Seth Russell, QB Baylor
In his first season as the full time starter at Baylor, Junior quarterback Russell was having quite the season, leading the Bears to an undefeated record while averaging 317.83 yards per game and 3.85 touchdowns per game. Unfortunately, last week against Iowa State, he suffered a season ending neck injury. He is expected to make a full recovery from the injury, but it is a frustrating one for a player whose value is on the rise. With this, I’d definitely expect him to stay in school if leaving early was ever a consideration.
Verdict: Hold. Russell likely isn’t owned in very many leagues, but where he is owned, now isn’t the time to sell him. When he comes back and plays like he was playing before the injury, that would be the time to sell.
Nick Wilson, RB Arizona
Sophomore running back Wilson started the 2015 season very well, rushing for 97 yards or more in each of the Wildcats’ first four games, along with five touchdowns. Since then, he has three consecutive games without reaching the 97 yard mark, and more recently he missed a game and was limited in another with a knee injury. He is currently ranked as the thirteenth best running back in the 2017 class by DLF rankers, and even before the injury, that does look a little low for a back who ran for 1375 yards and 16 touchdowns in his freshman season.
Verdict: Buy. Minor injuries that result in less-than-exciting box score numbers will always create buying opportunities from undisciplined and easily frustrated devy owners.
Jared Goff, QB California
Although it looks like Goff is still projected as a 1st round NFL draft pick, he is no longer the general consensus top overall 2016 QB he was earlier this season, and he has struggled with turnovers. He currently has the seventh-most interceptions in the FBS with 11, just two fewer than Max Wittek who leads the FBS with 13. The emergence of Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch also plays a decent sized part in Goff’s stock being down, because as one stock goes up, another goes down.
Verdict: Hold. The combination of subpar recent performance and being a quarterback means that he doesn’t have a ton of trade value right now, and I think he will be a better sell near NFL draft time.
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